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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 11th, 2010 http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-vine/what-th… What The Snowpocalypse Tells Us About Global Warming. Washington D.C.’s getting slammed by record snowfall right now, which means that in addition to unplowed roads and Mad Max-style scenes at Safeway, we also have to suffer through a flurry of Al Gore jokes and Republicans snorting about how this proves global warming is all fake. I guess the prim, boring response is that a single weather event, even an extreme one, doesn’t tell us very much about long-term climate trends. But blah, blah, everyone’s heard that line before. A more thoughtful reply comes from meteorologist Jeff Masters, who explains how massive snowstorms in the Northeast are, in fact, quite consistent with a steadily warming world: There are two requirements for a record snow storm: 1) A near-record amount of moisture in the air (or a very slow moving storm). 2) Temperatures cold enough for snow. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the globe warmed 0.74°C (1.3°F) over the past 100 years. There will still be colder than average winters in a world that is experiencing warming, with plenty of opportunities for snow. The more difficult ingredient for producing a record snowstorm is the requirement of near-record levels of moisture. Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events–the ones most likely to cause flash flooding–will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. This extra moisture in the air will tend to produce heavier snowstorms, assuming it is cold enough to snow. Groisman et al. (2004) found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events in the U.S. over the past 100 years, though mainly in spring and summer. However, the authors did find a significant increase in winter heavy precipitation events have occurred in the Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, it’s worth noting the U.S. Global Change Research Program actually predicted stronger winter storms for the Northeast, in its 2009 report on potential climate-change impacts for the United States: Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes (Kunkel et al., 2008). The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights.” Now, that doesn’t mean we can definitely say that global warming caused this snow monstrosity—again, it’s too hard to attribute any single weather event to long-term climate shifts. (For instance, El Niño may be playing a bigger role right now in feeding these storms.) At most, we can say that a warming climate will create the conditions that make fierce winter storms in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic more likely. Or at least it will for awhile: If the planet keeps heating up, then at some point freezing conditions in the Northeast will become very rare, at which point snowstorms will, too But we’re not at that point—the Earth hasn’t warmed that much yet. On the other hand, climate models do predict that snowstorms in the southernmost parts of the United States should become much rarer in the coming decades: There’s plenty of moisture down south, but freezing temperatures are likely to decrease and the jet stream is expected to shift northward. So if those regions start seeing a sustained uptick in snowfall, then something’s gone awry in climate predictions. But the blizzard in the Northeast, while miserable and incredibly disruptive, doesn’t appear whack with long-term forecasts. (That’s not exactly cheerful news for those of us who have to live here.) ————— Last Updated: 1:02 PM GMT on February 11, 2010. Posted by: JeffMasters on February 08, 2010 A major new winter storm is headed east over the U.S. today, and threatens to dump a foot or more of snow on Philadelphia, New York City, and surrounding regions Tuesday and Wednesday. Philadelphia is still digging out from its second top-ten snowstorm of recorded history to hit the city this winter, and the streets are going to begin looking like canyons if this week’s snowstorm adds a significant amount of snow to the incredible 28.5″ that fell during “Snowmageddon” last Friday and Saturday. Philadelphia has had two snowstorms exceeding 23″ this winter. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the return period for a 22+ inch snow storm is once every 100 years–and we’ve had two 100-year snow storms in Philadelphia this winter. It is true that if the winter pattern of jet stream location, sea surface temperatures, etc, are suitable for a 100-year storm to form, that will increase the chances for a second such storm to occur that same year, and thus the odds have having two 100-year storms the same year are not 1 in 10,000. Still, the two huge snowstorms this winter in the Mid-Atlantic are definitely a very rare event one should see only once every few hundred years, and is something that has not occurred since modern records began in 1870. The situation is similar for Baltimore and Washington D.C. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the expected return period in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region for snowstorms with more than 16 inches of snow is about once every 25 years. This one-two punch of two major Nor’easters in one winter with 16+ inches of snow is unprecedented in the historical record for the region, which goes back to the late 1800s. 1. 30.7″, Jan 7-8, 1996 The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore: 1. 28.2″, Feb 15-18, 2003 The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.: 1. 28.0″, Jan 27-28, 1922 Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 7th, 2010 Arctic Melt To Cost Up To $24 Trillion By 2050: Report Date: 08-Feb-10 WASHINGTON – Arctic ice melting could cost global agriculture, real estate and insurance anywhere from $2.4 trillion to $24 trillion by 2050 in damage from rising sea levels, floods and heat waves, according to a report released on Friday. “Everybody around the world is going to bear these costs,” said Eban Goodstein, a resource economist at Bard College in New York state who co-authored the report, called “Arctic Treasure, Global Assets Melting Away.” He said the report, reviewed by more than a dozen scientists and economists and funded by the Pew Environment Group, an arm of the Pew Charitable Trusts, provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of the loss of one of the world’s great weather makers. “The Arctic is the planet’s air conditioner and it’s starting to break down,” he said. The loss of Arctic Sea ice and snow cover is already costing the world about $61 billion to $371 billion annually from costs associated with heat waves, flooding and other factors, the report said. Melting of Arctic sea ice is already triggering a feedback of more warming as dark water revealed by the receding ice absorbs more of the sun’s energy, he said. That could lead to more melting of glaciers on land and raise global sea levels. While much of Europe and the United States has suffered heavy snowstorms and unusually low temperatures this winter, evidence has built that the Arctic is at risk from warming. Greenhouse gases generated by tailpipes and smokestacks have pushed Arctic temperatures in the last decade to the highest levels in at least 2,000 years, reversing a natural cooling trend, an international team of researchers reported in the journal Science in September. Arctic emissions of methane have jumped 30 percent in recent years, scientists said last month. Thin ice over the Arctic Sea this winter could mean a powerful ice-melt next summer, a top U.S. climate scientist said this week. And early findings from a major research project in Canada involving more than 370 scientists from 27 countries showed on Friday that climate change is transforming the Arctic environment faster than expected and accelerating the disappearance of sea ice. Goodstein’s study did not look at worst-case scenarios Arctic melting could have, such as warmer temperatures that trigger massive releases of crystallized methane formations in Arctic soils and ocean beds known as methane hydrates. It also did not look at sea ice erosion troubling people in the Arctic. Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 6th, 2010 Shackleton’s Whiskey Found Buried Near South Pole. Lauren Frayer Researchers from New Zealand found the crates while restoring a hut Shackleton built and used during the expedition. He and his team were forced to cut short the trip and abandon supplies, including their booze, to sail away before winter ice trapped them there. The second trip was backed by the same Scottish company that distilled Shackleton’s whiskey, Mackinlay’s Rare Old Scotch. It could be the longest booze run in history. The Whyte and Mackay distillery hopes to replicate the whiskey, which hasn’t been made in a lifetime after the original recipe was lost. “If the contents can be confirmed, safely extracted and analyzed, the original blend may be able to be replicated,” Paterson said. Shackleton’s expedition ran short of supplies on a long trek to the South Pole that began in 1907. He had to turn back about 100 miles from the pole in 1909. The team had to move quickly to escape as winter ice began to form, so they were forced to abandon all but essential equipment and supplies – including their whiskey. No lives were lost. A Norwegian explorer, Roald Amundsen, was first to reach the South Pole two years later, in 1911. As for what the future holds for Shackleton’s whiskey, there are international treaties preventing the removal of artifacts from Antarctica, but Paterson wrote on his blog that he hopes to get his hands on at least a sample of the whiskey, if not a couple bottles. “What you all want to know is: How will it taste?” Paterson wrote. “To which the answer is: Cold.” Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on January 31st, 2010 The International Conference “Deltas in Times of Climate Change.” from: Ottelien van Steenis – Call for abstracts for The International Conference ‘Deltas in Times of Climate Change’ September 29 – October 1, 2010, Rotterdam, the Netherlands The conference pursues three main goals: Authors who wish to present a paper or poster related to the scientific programme are invited to submit an abstract. The abstracts have to be submitted before 15 February 2010, and will be expected to fit within one of the themes: Dates to be remembered: During the conference, the Delta Alliance, Connecting Delta Cities and the C40 will be working to develop worldwide cooperation between deltas and delta cities. The Delta Alliance is an international alliance promoting effective cooperation among deltas in their efforts to manage existing and new challenges. The Connecting Delta Cities is an international network that unites delta cities that strive to make their cities climate proof. More information is available at the conference website and the brochure of the conference. The Steering Committee – Pier Vellinga and Pavel Kabat Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on January 28th, 2010 If It’s That Warm, How Come It’s So Darned Cold? James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Ken Lo Overview. Public skepticism about global warming was reinforced by the extreme cold
Before addressing these matters, we note that scientists reporting global warming have come The spiral into an almost surrealistic situation with ad hominem attacks on scientists may have The scientific method practically defines integrity. All scientists make honest mistakes, but the scientific method is designed to correct them. [Albert Einstein: “The right to search for truth implies also a duty; one must not conceal any part of what one has recognized to be true.” Richard Feynman: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.”] The skeptical nature of the scientific method causes conclusions to be reexamined as new data appears. We know of no cases of fraud in analyses of global temperature measurements. Despite If we look back a century, we find cold anomalies that dwarf current ones. Figure 1 shows As we will show, climate is changing, especially during the past 30 years. The changes are
3 These three data sets are the input for a program that produces a global map of temperature Although the three input data streams that we use are publicly available from the
month in April 2008. These data sets, which cover the full period of our analysis, 1880?present, There is a high degree of interannual (year-to-year) and decadal variability in both global The long-term trends are more apparent when temperature is averaged over several There is a contradiction between the observed continued warming trend and popular The origin of this contradiction probably lies in part in differences between the GISS and
Comparison of GISS and HadCRUT results. Figure 4 shows maps of GISS and HadCRUT The “masked” GISS data let us quantify the extent to which the difference between the The rationale for this aspect of the GISS analysis is based on the fact that temperature
Figure 5 shows time series of global temperature for the GISS and HadCRUT analyses, as The question then becomes: how valid are the extrapolations and interpolations in the
Table 1 shows the derived error due to incomplete coverage of stations. As expected, Additional sources of error become important when comparing temperature anomalies Now let’s consider whether we can specify a rank among the recent global annual The year 2005 is 0.061°C warmer than 1998 in our analysis. So how certain are we that
Comparison of GISS and NOAA global temperature change. NOAA recently announced Figure 6 reveals that the NOAA and GISS analyses are in good agreement, within the Global cooling in the past decade? That question can be addressed with a much higher Why are some people so readily convinced of a false conclusion, that the world is really
“I wonder about the people who use cold weather to say that the globe is cooling. It forgets that What frogbandit is saying is illustrated by the global map of temperature anomalies in
Regional anomalies. How do these large regional temperature anomalies stack up It is obvious that in December 2009 there was an unusual exchange of polar and mid? The degree to which Arctic air penetrates into middle latitudes is related to the Arctic Figure 8 shows that December 2009 was the most extreme negative Arctic Oscillation Figure 9 shows the AO index with greater temporal resolution for two 5?year periods. It
monthly temporal resolution. Large negative anomalies, when they occur, are usually in a The AO index is not so much an explanation for climate anomaly patterns as it is a Figure 10 shows the AO index for Dec?Jan?Feb and Jun?Jul?Aug. Variability is much We conclude that December 2009 was a highly anomalous month. High pressure in the
However, other factors than the AO, including pervasive global warming due to The outstanding characteristic in comparing these two figures is that the magnitude of The magnitude of monthly temperature anomalies is typically 1.5 to 2 times greater
Acknowledgements. The Niagara Falls photos belong to Moisha Blechman. John Hiddema and Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on January 4th, 2010 GLOBAL WARMING IGNITES BORDERS AS WELL By Manuel Manonelles, BARCELONA, (IPS) Posted by Other News January 3, 2009. Little by little, it is being confirmed that the melting of the polar ice caps, whether in Antarctica or the Arctic, is happening significantly faster than initially predicted. The consequences of this for peace, one of the main victims of climate change, are enormous. Glaciers and areas of high-altitude mountains that were previously considered zones of perpetual snow are now melting. A paradigmatic case is that of the alpine border between Switzerland and Italy where during a recent routine verification, certain sections of ice or perennial snow that had been on the map since 1861 were found to be missing. In this case, the two countries have enjoyed long periods of peaceful coexistence and are approaching the problem in a logical and cordial fashion, forming a commission to find a technical solution. However, the possible implications of cases like this in other geographical areas are very worrisome. The destabilising potential of a similar development on the India-Pakistan border would be enormous, particularly in the zone of Kashmir or the Siachen glacier, where more than 3000 soldiers of both countries have died since 1984. The same is true of the tense China-India border, or the deeply problematic border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which will grow increasingly porous with melting, contributing to a rise in destabilisation in what are already two of the most unstable countries on the earth. Another major effect of global warming is the gradual opening of major global shipping lanes in areas that had previously been impassable because of ice. The Northeast Passage along the north of Russia, used recently for the first time in history, shortens travel between the ports of China, Japan, and Korea and Hamburg, Rotterdam, and South Hampton by 4,000 kilometres. With the Northwest Passage along northern Canada, travel between the China and the ports of the eastern United States is similarly shortened. The opening of these new routes will completely change the dynamics of intercontinental trade and might render irrelevant places that until now were considered geostrategically essential, such as the Panama and the Suez Canal. This also explains, in part, the speed with which the European Union is processing the application for EU membership of bankrupt Iceland, which would place the body in the best possible position for future negotiations and territorial claims in the area with regard to future access to the “Arctic banquet”. It is important to note in this context that the majority of the global population lives in areas close to the sea, starting with megacities like Mumbai, London, New York, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Buenos Aires, and densely-populated areas like the Ganges delta in Bangladesh, where rising sea levels are already wreaking havoc in the form of water pollution and related effects. Recent studies indicate the possibility of some 200 million new environmental refugees in coming years -refugees who would only increase the already considerable humanitarian pressures and tensions in these areas and exacerbate existing or latent conflict. —————- This and all “other news” issues edited by Roberto Savio can be found at http://www.other-net.info/index.php Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on December 10th, 2009 SWIMMING WITH THE POLAR BEARS originally performed Off-Broadway in April 2009 as part of a 3-day Earth Day benefit for The Climate Project. SWIMMING WITH THE POLAR BEARS DK – 1704 Copenhagen V Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on December 1st, 2009 www.SustainabiliTank,info suggests that the following is a great opportunity to tell President Obama that long-term jobs are created Bailing out unsustainable industries does not create new jobs, nor keeps old job, but rather insures that there will be unemployment in the future. We hope that after Copenhagen and Oslo, the President will be ripe for leading the attempt to make 21st Century sense with America. ————————- From:
On Thursday, President Obama is hosting a discussion at the White House to explore every possible avenue for job creation. Small business owners, CEOs, economists, financial experts, and nonprofit groups, as well as Americans who have felt the impact of this economic crisis firsthand, will be there to share ideas. But you don’t need to be here on Thursday to participate. You can join the discussion by organizing your own jobs forum with your family, friends, and co-workers — because these conversations can take place in living rooms and conference tables, not just arenas and convention centers. We’re looking for community leaders like you from all across the country to host discussions from now until December 13th. Your community jobs forum will be a source of insights and ideas that will inform the President’s approach to job creation. To get started, let us know you’re interested, and we’ll send you information that may help you organize a successful jobs forum in your community:
In the coming days, we’ll follow up with discussion questions and other materials to help make your event as productive as possible. We’re not able to offer an events center where anyone can find events already happening, so if you haven’t heard of one in your area, start your own and reach out to your network for participants. After the event, we’ll provide a simple online tool for you to submit job creation ideas and thoughts. Back here at the White House, we’ll compile your feedback and send it to the Oval Office for review. With all of us working together, we’ll get America working again. Get started organizing a jobs forum in your community today. Look forward to hearing from you, Valerie Valerie Jarrett
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on November 28th, 2009 Thinking of Climate Change, and Copenhagen, I found this week-end Financial Times (November 28-29, 2009) quite amazing: page 3 of Life & Arts section (- why that section? -) had the “Waving and Drowning” article about the very active President of the Maldives, who won elections last year replacing the longest ruling dictator in Asia, and since shot up to become the leader of the Small Islands Developing States in matters of climate change. Rahul Jacob, the interviewer for the FT, subtitled the article – “Afternoon tea with the FT: Mohamed Nasheed, president of the Maldives, is determined to draw the world’s attention to the threat his country faces from rising sea levels, even if it means holding cabinet meetings under water.” I knew what he was talking because just last night, on the NOW program on CNN TV, David Broncacio showed a meeting of this underwater cabinet as they were preparing their document for the Copenhagen Conference. The FT describes the Presidential menu in the Male office included Fish rolls, Fishcakes, Tuna sandwiches, doughnuts and Lipton tea. The whole event was clearly courtesy of the melting ice at the two global poles. The FT page had a small area – bottom left – on four ENGINEERED SOLUTIONS – one worse then the other. The fourth was: RE-ICING THE ARCTIC as a plan to save the world presented by Hazel Sheffield. The suggestion for the re-icing process is to spray salty water over the shores of Greenland. But that was not all! page 5 of the same section was titled: “WHITE CHRISTMAS” and the point was that that YOU DRINK WHITE WINE IF YOU WANT TO HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS. Now I am convinced that we near deep trouble – under water covers, no ice and no red wine! Will Copenhagen scratch at the problem? Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on November 28th, 2009 Geothermal Power: Chinese Lead African Geothermal Exploration. By Sam Hopkins China built its Great Wall to keep foreigners out… Kenya is reliant on hydropower for most of its electricity, and droughts consistently threaten that resource and subsequent power delivery. With its landscape cut across by the Great Rift Valley, which is in the process of splitting two parts of the tectonic African Plate, Kenya holds a geothermal output potential of 7000 megawatts (7 GW). Currently, only 167 MW of that has been tapped. Great Wall Drilling is furthering the recent trend of Chinese companies moving into African resource markets by launching a massive exploration and production campaign. Great Wall Drilling has 47 wells in Kenya either planned or already dug. Stay with Green Chip Stocks to learn more about how the development of alternative energy resources in developing countries like Kenya could help them “leapfrog” fossil fuel. The same has already happened with telecoms, as Kenya bypassed fixed-line infrastructure for wireless communication. Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on October 30th, 2009
Climate Change Adaptation: It’s about Water! Water is central to the world’s development challenges. Whether it is food security, poverty reduction, economic growth, human health—water is the nexus. Climate change is the spoiler. No matter how successful mitigation efforts might be, people will experience the impacts of climate change through water. The Global Water Partnership is participating in ‘Water Day’ at the climate change negotiations in Barcelona. GWP Executive Secretary Dr Ania Grobicki will be the lead speaker on water and transboundary issues on Tuesday, November 3. The venue is the Fira Congress Hotel, opposite the conference centre. The opening session starts at 9 am and lunch will be provided. Recently, the GWP’s Technical Committee released its 14th Background Paper: “Water Management, Water Security and Climate Change Adaptation.” It argues that investments in water are investments in adaptation. The paper can be downloaded on www.gwpforum.org or ordered free at gwp@gwpforum.org. Climate Change: How can we Adapt? – a one-pager about GWP’s key messages on this subject – is available here: http://www.gwpforum.org/gwp/library/GWP_Briefingnote_climatechange.pdf. GWP has been accepted as an Inter-Governmental Organisation with Observer Status at COP 15 in Copenhagen in December and has submitted an article to the delegate publication. But more information on that will follow later. More resources about climate change and water and more information on GWP’s involvement in the global dialogue on climate change is available on this page: http://www.gwpforum.org/servlet/PSP?iNodeID=205&itemId=442.
——————————————————–Steven DowneyHead of CommunicationsGlobal Water Partnership (GWP)Drottninggatan 33SE-111 51 Stockholm, SWEDENPhone: +46 8 522 126 52Fax: + 46 8 522 126 31E-mail: steven.downey@gwpforum.orgWebsite: www.gwpforum.org Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on August 3rd, 2009 China and India probe Himalayan glaciers. India and China are to collaborate in monitoring melting glaciers in the Himalayas, a border region crucial to both countries’ water supplies and one over which they have gone to war. Jairam Ramesh, India’s environment minister, said academic research bodies on both sides would share information. He also told the FT that New Delhi was also open to a dialogue about water resources with Beijing, saying the two countries had shared concerns. He warned India would not allow Chinese scientists “to climb all over India’s glaciers” but wanted a collaborative research programme. Seven of the world’s largest rivers, including the Ganges and the Yangtze, are fed by the glaciers of the Himalayas. They supply water to about 40 per cent of the world’s population. Water supply is likely to become an increasing security priority for both India and China as they seek to maintain high economic growth rates and sustain large populations dependent on farming. The Indian government has requested that the Indian Space Research Organisation and the department of science and technology undertake extensive glacial surveys across the Himalayas to assess their condition. “Historically, India has contributed little to the creation of the climate change problem. Conversely, India has a lot to lose from the effects of climate change,” said Vinuta Gopal, a climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace, the environmental lobby group. Mr Ramesh is visiting China this month to strike a pact with Beijing ahead of the Copenhagen talks on climate change in December. Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 17th, 2009 Climate change divides the Alps down the middle The dramatic effect of climate change on the Alps comes into focus as never before this week with the publication of a major report which reveals that the mountain range is rapidly dividing into two contrasting climatic zones, each posing new problems. By Michael Day in Milan Michael McCarthy: Don’t be fooled by this winter’s powder. The Alpine snow line is already in retreat According to the report, precipitation in the south-east of the region has fallen nearly 10 per cent in the past 100 years while rain and snowfall in the north-west ranges has increased by the same amount over this time. “Predictions that the European climate is dividing into two are becoming all too real,” said Marco Onida, secretary general of the Convention, who will present the report at the organisation’s headquarters in Bolzano, Italy, tomorrow, in the presence of EU officials and national representatives. “The result will be havoc for the Alps and the communities and wildlife that rely on area.” Changing patterns of rain and snowfall, shrinking glaciers and rising temperatures will affect not only the mountains but also the communities which rely on their resources, the report warns. Already some Alpine villages in the north of the range face flooding, while areas further south are seeing tourist and other trades increasingly threatened. Some areas have already suffered water shortages. The Alps’ most famous high peaks, Mont Blanc, The Matterhorn and Monte Rosa mark part of the dividing line between the increasingly wet north of the region and Italy and Slovenia in the dryer south. North of the dividing line, flooding and mud slides are becoming a common threat in some Alpine communities. In the south, some of the Europe’s most celebrated Alpine beauty spots, including Italy’s Dolomites are under threat, although some micro-climates mean the dividing line does not following a rigid north-south line. As a result of these changes, only one Alpine river – Italy’s 178-mile-long Tagliamento in the north-east of the country – has not suffered drastic modifications, the reports says. And even the Tagliamento may not be safe: the wildlife charity WWF has warned that even this, the Alps’ last river system, is threatened by water abstraction in the upper Tagliamento valley, organic pollution, and gravel exploitation. The situation across the Alps is made worse, the Convention report says, by the increasing demand for artificial snow created during the winter months by snow machines working on the ski slopes. This is needed to sustain the winter sports industry which is an economic mainstay of the slopes, but places a further heavy burden on water and energy supplies which are already under great stress. “The Alps are the water tower of Europe,” Dr Onida told The Independent, “But increasingly much of the water is not reaching the places downstream where it is needed, for ecosystems, agriculture and energy production.” Around 16 million people in eight countries, from France in the west to Hungary in the east, live in the arc of Europe’s biggest mountain range. Rain and snow from its mountains provide the Danube, Rhine, Rhone and Po rivers with up to 80 per cent of their water. Representatives from all eight Alpine countries – France, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Lichtenstein, Slovenia and Hungary – together with the European Union – signed up to the Alpine Convention in 1991. The report warns not only that the destruction of the Alps is accelerating, but that disruption to water supplies will be felt much further afield than originally thought. Glacier shrinkage earlier this year led the Italian and Swiss governments to propose the first changes in the border line between the two countries in more than a century. Dr Onida said there was “a battle between agriculture and tourism for control over water supplies” owing to the increasingly intensive exploitation of the slopes. Climate change is also driving Alpine species further up the mountains while exotic species including palms get a foothold lower down. Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 8th, 2009 From: T: +49.40.42875-6324 franziska.mannke at haw-hamburg.d www.haw-hamburg.de/ftz-als.html We learned about an online complete “one-stop” library on much of what matters onclimatechange. The refernce is: http://www.klima2009.net/de/ccsl Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 7th, 2009 What Does Climate Change Do to Our Heads? by Sanjay Khanna A case in point: When researchers from the Centre for Rural and Remote Mental Health at the University of Newcastle in Australia conducted interviews in drought-affected communities in New South Wales in 2005, the responses suggested some of their subjects may have been suffering from a recently described psychological condition called solastalgia (pronounced so-la-stal-juh). Albrecht’s work among communities distraught by black-coal strip mining in New South Wales’ Upper Hunter Region convinced him that the English language needed a new term to connect the experience of ecosystem loss to mental health concerns. Albrecht’s stunning insight? That there might be a wide variety of shifts in the health of an ecosystem—from subtle landscape changes related to global warming to desolate wastelands created by large-scale strip mining—that diminish people’s mental health. In one such interview, a female farmer poignantly described the loss of her garden oasis. “Our gardens have had to die,” she said, “because our house dam has been dry…. So it’s very depressing for a woman because a garden is an oasis out here with this dust…you know, to come home to a nice green lawn is just… that’s all gone, so you’ve got dust at your back door.” While persistent drought and open-pit coal mining may be extreme cases, if the environmental degradation of the past hundred years is any indication, our contemporary lifestyles, built on a dwindling resource base, have failed to acknowledge how much the mental health of people and ecosystems is interrelated. This may imply that the unrelenting media focus on weather-related and economic aspects of climate change does not adequately take into consideration the challenge of mitigating the psychological impact of global warming. How might we feel when the heat is relentless and our surrounding environment changes irrevocably? How might our mental health be affected? In a recent Wired magazine article on Albrecht and the concept of solastalgia, Global Mourning: How the next victim of climate change will be our minds, writer Clive Thompson sensitively characterized as “global mourning” the potential impact of overwhelming environmental transformation caused by climate change. Thompson cogently summed up Albrecht’s view of what solastalgia might look like were it to become an epidemic of emotional and psychic instability causally linked to changing climates and ecosystems. Albrecht also emphasizes that feelings of melancholia and homesickness have previously been recorded among Aboriginal peoples in the Americas and Australia who were forcibly moved from their home territories by U.S., Canadian and Australian governments in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Sanjay Khanna: You speak of psychoterratic and somaterratic illnesses. What are they? Glenn Albrecht: Psychoterratic illness involves the psyche or mind and terra or earth. So a psychoterratic illness would be an earth-related mental illness, where both nostalgia and solastalgia are examples of people being made “mentally ill” by the severing of “healthy” links between themselves and their home or territory. Somaterratic illness, on the other hand, involves soma or the body and relates to damage done to the human body, its physiology and/or genetics, as a result of the loss of ecosystem health by, for example, toxic pollution in any given area of land. SK: You note on your blog that there are antecedents to solastalgia. GA: Yes, David Rapport, a past professor at the University of Guelph in Ontario, Canada, is a pioneer in the study of the health of natural ecosystems and their relationship with humans. In the 1970s, he described “ecosystem distress syndrome,” which was what happened when an ecosystem couldn’t restore its balance after an external disturbance. Once I fully appreciated this concept, I realized there must be a human equivalent to ecosystem distress syndrome, that is, a home environment so profoundly disturbed that it affected the balance of well being or the mental health of people within their social ecology. The interviews of affected people I conducted along with Nick Higginbotham and Linda Connor in strip-mined areas of the Upper Hunter Valley showed that people’s sense of place was being violated and that this was profoundly disturbing them. Their home environment was being desolated and it seemed to us that the vital link between ecosystem health and human health, both physical and mental, was being severed. SK: Can you tell us a little bit more about the origins of solastalgia? GA: Solastalgia’s Latin roots combine three ideas: The solace that one’s environment provides, the desolation caused by that environment’s degradation and the pain or distress that occurs inside a person as a result. Solastalgia brings into English a much-needed word that links a mental state to a state of the biophysical environment. The need for new concepts in the face of what is happening under climate change has seen other cultures develop new terms that have affinities with solastalgia. The Inuit, for example, have a new word, uggianaqtuq (pronounced OOG-gi-a-nak-took), which relates to climate change and has connotations of the weather as a once reliable and trusted friend that is now acting strangely or unpredictably. And the Portuguese use the word saudade to describe a feeling one has for a loved one who is absent or has disappeared. The upshot is that under the pressure of climate change, your preferred climate and ecosystem might well be thought of as a lover gone missing or turned bad. SK: How might your research impact on psychiatry and the diagnosis of psychoterratic illnesses such as solastalgia? GA: Alongside five other researchers, our four-person team co-wrote a summary of our research on the mental health impacts of mining and drought for psychological and psychiatric professionals. The paper, Solastalgia: the distress caused by climate change, was published in Australasian Psychiatry, a publication of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists, in November 2007. Our team has mused that people badly affected by solastalgia would benefit from a set of professionally developed diagnostic tools so that solastalgia could be listed as a condition that required diagnosis and professional attention. We’re happy for other people to take that challenge up and there are some academic psychiatrists who are interested in exploring these ideas further. However, given that key aspects of solastalgia are existential, the traditions of environmental philosophy and medical psychiatry may not come together so harmoniously. The melancholia of solastalgia is not the same as clinical depression, but it may well be a precursor to serious psychic disturbance. That said, it’s worth remembering that up until the mid-twentieth century, the medical profession viewed nostalgia as a diagnosable psycho-physiological illness in which, for example, soldiers fighting in foreign lands became so homesick and melancholic it could kill them. Today psychiatrists would see the condition of rapid and unwelcome severing from home as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), an outcome of an acute stressor such as warfare or a Hurricane Katrina. Solastalgia on the other hand is most often the result of chronic environmental stress; it is the lived experience of gradually losing the solace a once stable home environment provided. It is therefore appropriate to diagnose solastalgia in the face of slow and insidious forces such as climate change or mining. SK: Would you tell us a little bit about the transdisciplinary team that you participate on? GA: Nick Higginbotham, a social psychologist colleague who specializes in epidemiology and health matters, is working to gather empirical data for our solastalgia research. He has developed a much-needed environmental distress scale (EDS) that teases out the specific environmental components of distress from all the other things that go on in a person’s life. We will be using this scale in the new AUS$430K grant the team has received from the Australian Research Council to extend our earlier work by addressing “the lived experience (ethnography) of climate change” among people in the Hunter Valley. Linda Connor, an ethnographer and social and medical anthropologist, handles the ethnography or cultural experience of all this. So collectively we have empirical (Higginbotham), cultural (Connor) and philosophical (me) interpretations of health and climate change. Finally, Sonia Freeman, our research assistant, has co-authored a number of papers. SK: What implications might the recent apology by Kevin Rudd, the new Prime Minister of Australia, to the “stolen generations” of Australian Aborigines have in relation to solastalgia? GA: The apology by Kevin Rudd to the stolen generations is about seeking forgiveness for the government-sanctioned taking of Indigenous children from their families and from their home territories (their “country”) from 1909 until 1969. There have been profound mental and physical health impacts from this process and many of the remaining stolen generations are now ageing but with a 17-year shorter life expectancy on average than non-indigenous Australians. Those who are alive today may be experiencing genuine nostalgia for a once-sustainable past and solastalgia within contemporary pathological and depressed home environments. SK: Do you see a relationship between the conquest of Indigenous peoples of the Americas and Australasia, the state of environmental degradation and the experience of loss that we are seeing today? If so, what is that relationship from your perspective and research? GA: The answer is, yes, there is a relationship between the two colonial cultures: the two continents were colonized only by the systematic dispossession of complex and formerly sustainable Indigenous societies. Traditional Indigenous cultures in the Americas and Australasia displayed a profound appreciation of the relationship between human and ecosystem health, something global culture is trying to rediscover under the label of sustainability. Remnant aboriginal cultures are still being pushed aside by the dominant global model of economic growth and progress. Even today, their chronic health problems are likely related to social and political issues that are connected to ongoing dispossession. I’ve had recent firsthand experience of the lives of Indigenous people leading semi-traditional lives in Northern Australia to see the importance of the connections between human health and ecosystem health. In Arnhem Land, Aborigines who live on what are called “outstations” have been able to maintain much stronger and healthier links to their traditional land. Their physical and mental health status is, as a consequence, much better than those whose links to their own land have been severed and who now live in crowded, dysfunctional communities. SK: Some of the solastalgia symptoms you describe are similar to the loss of cultural identity, including the loss of language and ancestral memory. Loss of place seems an extension of this new global experience of weakened cultural identities and Earth-based ethical moorings. GA: I have written on this topic in a professional academic journal and expressed the idea of having an Earth-based ethical framework that could contribute to maximizing the creative potential of human cultural and technological complexity and diversity without destroying the foundational complexity and diversity of natural systems in the process. Our history shows that some people and cultures have a tendency to create pathological ways of thinking, but if we want to support a life-affirming ethic in the twenty-first century, we are in need of reform and change. SK: In the context of accelerating environmental change, what would you say to young people about the planet they are inheriting? What does sustainability mean in the context of the overwhelming pace of environmental and economic change that we’re seeing today? GA: This is a tough one because the children of today face the double whammy of the escalating pace and scale of changes under the global forces of development and those of climate chaos. I’ve suggested to my own teenagers that what is happening is unacceptable ethically and practically and they should be in a state of advanced revolt about the whole deal. From my perspective, supporting and maintaining the status quo is no longer a reasonable response to these big picture issues. At every point, we must challenge and refute this kind of thinking in a society that is clearly on a non-sustainable pathway. Unfortunately, the lot in life of the youth today is to undo much of what has been done in the name of growth and progress in the last two hundred years. However, this does not mean a return to the past: As Herman Daly (the ecological economist) once said, you can have an economy that develops without growing. On a personal level, I’m an optimistic, energetic philosopher and I believe that we must get our values more life orientated. I’m not willing to give up on encouraging change towards sustainability even in the face of what look like overwhelming negative forces. The four-year grant recently awarded to our team will allow us to study the lived experience of climate change at a regional level. We’re happy that we’ll be able to start contributing data on how climate change is shifting culture, values and attitudes. The next four years are critical. As a member of a research team, I believe that we’re right at the leading edge of change research and we are very committed to supporting the network of ecological and social relationships that promote human health. There’s hope in recognizing solastalgia and defeating it by creating ways to reconnect with our local environment and communities. ### Sanjay Khanna is a writer and foresight researcher based in Vancouver, Canada. He can be reached at sk AT khannaresearch DOT com. His blog is at www.realisticsanctuary.com. More articles are available at www.huffingtonpost.com Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 6th, 2009 As we know that many of our readers are interested in the nexus of climate change and desertification, we thought that there might be interest in participatingin the following review studies and decided to post this e-mail. ————– Dear Scientific Colleagues and Stakeholders of the UNCCD. This is an invitation to review the first drafts of scientific analysis papers contributing to the world’s fight against desertification and land degradation. (or http://dsd consortium.jrc.ec.europa.eu/php/index.php?action=view&id=160) and click the button on the left entitled ‘Online Consultation’. You can download and read the papers in PDF format there if you prefer, but all comments must be received via the web feedback system that is accessed through the above path. ————— Background For one month, from 28 May to 28 June 2009, the first drafts of the white papers will be open for review by scientists and stakeholders worldwide. We look forward to your valuable contributions. Please visit the web link mentioned above to participate in the review process. Thank you for helping to enrich these papers with your knowledge, comments and suggestions. Sincerely, Head, Program Facilitation Unit (PFU), CGIAR Program for Central Asia and the Caucasus (CAC) Coordinator, Regional Program of the International Center For Agricultural Research In The Dry Areas (ICARDA) for the CAC Region Mail Address: Program Facilitation Unit, P.O. Box 4564, Tashkent, 100000, Uzbekistan Phones: +99871 2372130, +99871 2372169, +99871 2372104 Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 3rd, 2009 In our article – David Dollar – Timothy F. Geithner’s new man in Beijing. Do we have a return to the G2? “Chimerica?” Can this David be a savior like the Biblical one? – of June 2, 2009 – we followed the US-China Pas-de-deux as seen from the Treasury Secretary’s visit to Beijing, but we also said – “US business managed also to turn US journalism away from honest reporting into a rather efficient collection of news-that-are-important to US-business-interests. Journalism schools started to be proud of training this sort of professionals, and got the product that they wanted. In effect people trained with these objectives in mind are incapable of realizing the trends and mechanisms that propel the foreign governments – so we reap what we sowed – and on this in a different posting that gathers in our mind after having witnessed a New York Asia Society on China event – just last night. They had a great guest speaker but the organizer of the event did not understand what he should aske him so that he does not just put him up for chit-chat” – and now I intend to do good on my promise. It was about the – Discussion: China’s Role in the Global Climate Game – An Evening with Jeffrey D. Sachs. “One common feature of the stimulus plans introduced in both China and the U.S. is the surge in funding for “green” efforts, from mass transit and green housing, to clean coal and smart grids. But our two countries remain, far and away, the largest emitters of carbon dioxide that imperils the planet. Can China reduce emissions in time? Can Beijing implement sustainable development goals without undermining China’s high growth rate—already in jeopardy due to the slowing global economy? And how do China’s efforts fit in to the larger, global effort at dealing with the climate crisis? Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of Earth Institute at Columbia, Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development, and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is uniquely qualified to reflect on China’s role in the global climate game. Sachs is author of many books including, ‘Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet’ and ‘The End of Poverty,’ and serves as Special Advisor to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Dr. Jeffrey Sachs is always great, knowledgeable and to the point. Even if we find something that we do not agree with, we always get thoughtful answers from him. His presentation this Monday was good as always, it did not go along the advertised lines but gave instead a wide background of US failures because of eight years of “Zero – Bush Policies – I mean Zero – NADA!” – he said. He then gave also a large picture of China’s interests, in the fact that they must use coal because that is what they have, and thus coal is their secure energy source. The US is also a coal economy and the US has done, as said above NADA in order to find cleaner ways to use coal. He did not make promise of pie-in-the-sky in search of entree points in China for American business . In the end of his talk I did even not mind his pro-nuclear arguments and, was not going to touch that subject at all – but had two other comments and wanted to ask for his reaction. This posting comes about because we get touchy when someone just tries to waste his time. January 30, 2007, thanks to Arthur Ross, an investment manager and philanthropist whose broad contributions to the arts and the environment often reflected his passions, from promoting classicism to establishing a grove of pines in Central Park, he was also very active at the Asia Society (He died in East Hampton, N.Y., September 10, 2007 at age 96). He held US Presidential appointments to the United Nations from five US Presidents. The inauguration January 30, 2007, of the Arthur Ross Asia Society Center on U.S.-China Relations was indeed a big event with the participation of Ambassador RICHARD HOLBROOKE, at the time Chairman of the Board of The Asia Society, Ambassador HENRY KISSINGER, Dr. VISHAKHA DESAI, President of the Asia Society, and Professor ORVILLE SCHELL, who was the newly appointed Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York. Further – Other American previous Ambassadors to China where asked to speak at videoconferencing at other Asia Society locations. President George Herbert Walker Bush and Barbara Bush appeared jointly to talk about their experiences in China. The other ambassadors, some of whom were in the room in New York – Ambassador Winston Lord. At the inauguration – the mandate given to the Center was: The Center will conduct original research and educate the American and international public on U.S.-China issues, commenting on and distributing timely information on critical topics and current events. It will also engage key Chinese and American leaders in critical dialogue. The Center will be based in New York and work closely with Asia Society Centers and partner with other organizations around the world. Preliminary areas of focus for the Center will include: The Discussion at that Inaugural event, that involved Mr. Kissinger and the three people connected to the Asia Society, with the ailing Mr. Ross present, is reported verbatim at http://www.asiasociety.org/speeches/07ny… Ambassador Holbrooke chaired the event and said: “Arthur Ross. Arthur, would you please stand for a moment? [APPLAUSE] Arthur had a shocking idea – Sino-American relations were the most important bilateral relationship in the world. Many other people have had that idea but Arthur knows how to convert an idea into a reality. So he and our President, Vishakha Desai, who will talk at the end of this program, and I, met – and Arthur said that he would give us a very substantial gift to start a center on US-China relations inside Asia Society and tonight we inaugurate that center. The center will conduct original research; educate Americans and the international public on China; will issue comments on critical issues and current events, distribute information on a highly upgraded website; engage key Chinese and American leaders in critical dialogue, and we begin this tonight; and although it will be based here in New York we will work with all of the Asia Society centers around the world in Washington, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Shanghai, Mumbai, Manila and Melbourne.” Then Ambassador Holbrooke proceeded announcing: ” If you’re gonna inaugurate a center on China, you need a fantastic director. And we’ve been incredibly fortunate to lure from the Journalism School of the University of California Berkeley distinguished China scholar, Orville Schell. Orville and his wife Baifeng are moving to New York or in Orville’s case, back to New York to undertake this. You all know his extraordinary background. He’s the author of seventeen books, wide commentator on these issues and we are blessed that he’s here.” The event then proceeded as a conversation between Mr. Schell and Ambassador Kissinger and turned to nostalgia. The several questions from others, were in the verbatim not dignified by mentioning the questioning person – even when the comment came from a US Senator. As I am very much interested in China, in its calling to help with the climate change issues even though it is obvious that their initial reaction might be that their society has not yet graduated to the economic club that has caused the environmental problems in the first place, I was intrigued to find out the background of Mr. Schell. Does he have the background to be able to lead independent research that can suggest policy innovations to China and the US? I was present at the impresive event, and kept thinking of The Hudson Institute in Herman Kahn’s days as a model for what is needed here. I found that: Orville Hickock Schell III (born 1940) is the Arthus Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York. He previously served as Dean of the University of California, Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism and has authored 14 books including works on the history of China – as per the Asia Society – 10 of them on China. Schell, a critic of factory farming, joined the company Niman Ranch (then named “Niman-Schell”) with Bill Niman in 1978 with the objective of raising cattle in a humane and environmentally sound manner. Schell left the company in 1999. In 1984 he wrote a book about meat production in the United States. Schell has a PhD (Abd) from UC Berkeley’s Department of History, and an undergraduate degree from Harvard University in Far Eastern history. He served as an exchange student at National Taiwan University in the 1960s. Schell has been the recipient of several writing fellowships, from the Alicia Patterson Foundation, the MacDowell Colony, the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation and the Freedom Forum Media Studies Center at Columbia University. He is also the winner of numerous awards, including the Harvard/Stanford Shorenstein Award for Asian Journalism, an Overseas Press Club of America Award, a Mencken Award for the Best Feature, and others. I found that as Dean at a School of Journalism he faught for the honor of the profession: “The assumption that the press matters is under threat” he said. “As I survey the landscape, what worries me most is that I think one of the oldest assumptions about journalism—namely, if the story can be told, something will happen for the better—is slowly being rendered inoperable. (But, maybe it never was operable, and I am in some mythology myself!)” “We can no longer blithely assume that if a reporter does his/her shoe-leather investigations and writes or produces a good revelatory story that an editor will welcome it; the publisher will publish it; producers will air it; readers and viewers will become better informed; the collectivity of citizens will demand action; hearings will be held, commissions formed laws passed, court cases will be adjudicated; and reforms will be made. Isn’t that the way things are or were supposed to work? And, if not, how the hell are they supposed to work? Alas, we can no longer assume that journalists have this catalytic ability. We have in too many ways been bull-dozed aside. (I think this is the real message of Judy Miller going to jail.) We still can, to some degree, do our thing, but we are increasingly maligned, marginalized and presumed by many power centers (government, state, church, etc) to be troublesome, negative, unpatriotic and unreliable. Now, we are even threatened with jail.” Eventually, in 2002 – he entered an unusual collaboration that involved Nicholas Lemann, dean of the Graduate School of Journalism at Columbia University; Orville Schell, dean of the Graduate School of Journalism at the University of California, Berkeley; Loren Ghiglione, dean of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University; Geoffrey Cowan, dean of the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Southern California; and Alex S. Jones, director of the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University. According to the press release from Carnegie, whose president, Vartan Gregorian, is also a key player in the project, the aim of the partners is to “advance the U.S. news business by helping revitalize schools of journalism.” The Carnegie-Knight Initiative was born and it involves three distinct efforts: - The Carnegie-Knight Task Force, focusing on research and creating a platform for educators to speak on policy and journalism education issues. - At a time when technology’s digital revolution is changing the news industry, the Carnegie-Knight Initiative will focus on preparing future media leaders to be analytic thinkers, clear writers and communicators, armed with an in-depth understanding of the context and complexity of issues facing the modern world. A study based on interviews with 40 of the country’s most prestigious news leaders indicated a need for schools of journalism to help reporters build specialized expertise that will enhance coverage of complex beats ranging from medicine to economics to international conflicts, and to understand the languages and cultures of distant parts of the world. ———— An article in PressThink, a weblog that concentrates on what’s happening to journalism in the age of the Net, says: “I don’t want to sound picky, but… The press release says the idea is to “advance the U.S. news business.” Is that what a university-based journalism school is all about? I think Schell would say what I would say: as educators we have to know the news business, inside and out, and be engaged with it. What the school is supposed to advance, however, is the craft, conscience and quality of independent journalism.” So, what above nice words seem to mean according to this criticism is less the importance of “doing right” then in having an ongoing news-paper business. Jay Rosen, the blogger at PressThink, is a press critic, a writer, and a professor of journalism at New York University. According to how we feel about journalism at SustainabiliTank.info, obviously we are on the side of the blogger and his interpretation that the future of journalism is with the Internet rather then by trying to improve what turned out to be a losing proposition – the journalism business that is basically doing little else then working in support of all other business interests. ———– Books by Orville Schell: Virtual Tibet: Searching for Shangri-La from the Himalayas to Hollywood (2000) The list is impressive, but where is here the technical knowledge of handling the needed cooperation between China and the US in issues of climate change? Could it be that dealing with the history of China, foreigner’s life in China, and then doing good conventional journalistic reporting of the changes in China since Tianmen Square, is not really enough of a background for filling a think tank leadership position on the future of China as it is imperative today? I would not have written the above, had I not observed the arrogance with which Mr. Schell handled the audience that had perhaps better questions to ask Dr. Sachs, after the not well used time of his own questions to Dr. Sachs. I think this came because he may not have been enough versed in the technical subtleties of the subject of climate change, or perhaps he did not want to venture into creative thinking? At some point, a report that was prepared for the Center, under his supervision, was slightly criticized by Dr. Sachs, as not having reacted to some useless suggestions in the report, that seemingly came from interested US sources, that are not keen in moving ahead with productive thought. Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on May 9th, 2009 This article is intended as a first in a series of articles, and let me say right here that it will not be the most important article in the series – it will actually be an introductory “puzzlement.” The series is being born from participation on May 5th, 2009 at a full-day Conference on “THE GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.” That conference was organized by The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) which is the world’s leading authority on political-military conflict. The IISS, based in London, is both a limited company in UK law and a registered charity. It has offices in the US and in Singapore with charitable status in each jurisdiction. The IISS was founded in 1958 in the UK by a number of individuals interested in how to maintain civilised international relations in the nuclear age. Much of the Institute’s early work focused on nuclear deterrence and arms control and was hugely influential in setting the intellectual structures for managing the Cold War. When I got the information about the May 5th Conference I decided to post it as an upcoming event as I felt from the program that it will be very relevant to readers of our site. Indeed, I even found our article as a posting when I googled now for IISS. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (US) (IISS): Conference on the Global Security Implications of Climate Change, May 5, 2009, Washington DC. Having said above, now, for the purpose of this article I move to something very different. It is about a 48 page volume that my neighbor had in his possession. This was the volume on the “Transatlantic Cooperation for Sustainable Energy Security” that originated with the Center For Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) that is the Washington DC Institution connected to Georgetown University, with which I was connected some 25 years ago. The further co-sponsors of that volume where The Atlantic Council of the US, and the British host of a September 15, 2008 Conference in London’s Chatham House. The project director was Simon Serfaty of CSIS and the authors and group leaders were Franklin Kramer and John Lyman of the Atlantic Council and Robin Niblett of Chatham House. I made it my business to walk over to CSIS at the end of the May 5th meeting, and picked up a copy. Reading it I found out that actually the soul of this project was Professor Zbigniew Brzezinski in his capacity as Chair in Global Security and Geopolitics at CSIS, who back in 2008 launched a Dialogue between the European Union and the United States on issues including “THE RISK OF ENERGY SCARCITY AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SECURITY” and as a separate item “THE DILEMMAS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INCLUDING MITIGATION OF ITS CAUSES AND ADAPTATION TO ITS IMPACTS.” Other topics mentioned were: - Issues of Stabilization and Reconstruction, and The Problem of Failing States, - Challenges in the World Economy and the Modalities of Global Economic Governance, - The Need For Strategic Convergence and the Formation of a Euro-American Security Strategy. Above topics were first the base for a meeting in Washington DC on July 8, 2008, and then a second meeting at Chatham House on September 15, 2008, and the final result was release in his booklet of February 2009. 35 people were involved in the preparation of this document and it is mentioned that not all of them agreed to all what was said. So, for a fast answer to the questions in my title – the security mentioned here is the security of energy supplies to the members of the North-Atlantic Region, with the rest of the world, including topics of climate change, a bothersome group of outsiders who at best should be relegated to the poor house of those in need of stabilization or reconstruction because THEY are Failed States – and that is clearly not what I understand under the term of SUSTAINABILITY. To be sure, a footnote tells us that while talking of the US and the EU as the Transatlantic Community – Canada, even though never mentioned, is also part of this structure. I may be extremely prejudiced, but I believe that SUSTAINABLE ENERGY is what will bring Security, and when one looks for narrow Energy Security he will not achieve sustainability and not even security – all this even before we start to try to address the impact from climate change that makes also the mightiest economies unsustainable. Actually – the first line in the text already guarantees the downfall of this publication. It says: ” The world is energy short and carbon long.” Whatever that means – this clearly has no meaning in sciences – any of them! From that statement one is called to take at face value the second sentence that says: “This report focuses on that juxtaposition and the means to achieve energy security in a world concerned over climate change and maintaining economic growth.” The goal of the booklet seems to convince the world that “A Transatlantic Forum on Energy Cooperation (TFEC) should be formed that includes the US, the EU, NATO, and the nations of both the EU and NATO.” That forum will then find the way out from the problems as perceived in this booklet. This report promises that a second report will be provided later that “will discuss the need for carbon pricing and other mechanisms to complement efforts in energy efficiency and energy production.” So, there is hope – the meat of this work is yet to show up on the table. The TFEC will develop programs that would assist other major economies, such as China and India, to develop more efficient and effective transportation systems. This I am sure is going to be viewed as great news by China and India who clearly think that the transportation systems in the US are ideal, or perhapse the intent is here to teach them how to save our transportation systems by selling us better cars. Clearly, one or the other were the reason why this document was readied in such haste so the incoming US Administration will have it on its desk. The document includes a good section on traditional industry evaluation of the energy markets, and the view of developments in the US and in the EU. It also advocates “the expansion of the IEA into a global organization of petroleum and natural gas consumer nations that includes major economies such as China and India,” even though it mentions here and there the introduction of non-petroleum energy. The document was supported from funds of the European Commission and I would assume that the funds came from the remnants of Marshall funds. Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on April 24th, 2009 From: Andrew Holland <Holland@iiss.org>
Defining Global Security in the 21st Century: A Conference on the Global Security Implications of Climate Change Tuesday, 5 May 2009 8:30 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. The Ritz Carlton, Washington DC 1150 22nd St, NW Participants will include distinguished government, military, business, media and academic leaders from the United States and Europe. AGENDA: Panel #1 Can we have both Energy Security and Climate Security? Are long term security from climate change and short-term energy security compatible? Panel #2 Managing Climate-Induced State-Threatening Crises: How should militaries plan for massive humanitarian interventions into states stressed by climate-induced crises? Panel #3 The Strategic Consequences of the Copenhagen Meeting: How do we define ‘security’ in a world of climate instability? Is a global emissions-reduction treaty necessary for long-term global security? Participants are required to register by April 30, 2009. There are no fees associated with this conference. A light breakfast and lunch will be provided. In your acceptance, please indicate if you will only attend select portions. Space is limited, and preference will be given to those who can stay through the entire day. You will receive personal correspondence confirming your registration for the event. E-mail: events-washington at iiss.org Tel: 202.659.1490 —————————————————————————- – The IISS would like to thank the European Commission for its generous support in financing this project – _____________________________________________ Andrew Holland The International Institute for Strategic Studies – US Permalink |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on March 4th, 2009 EU ministers shirk third-world climate finance. Poorer countries have been left hanging by EU environment ministers, who at a meeting in Brussels failed to produce any clear funding commitments to help the developing world tackle climate change.
“It makes no sense to say now how much the EU is willing to transfer,” German environment minister Sigmar Gabriel said at a press conference after the meeting. “We were not quite able to reach consensus on the financing mechanism. This is an issue where the [European] Council will need more discussion time,” said EU environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas, also in attendance at the ministers’ meeting. But because the EU also wants developing countries, particularly emerging nations such as China, India, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia, to also commit to reductions, climate finance for the third world has become the main focus of discussion in the lead-up to the Copenhagen meeting.
However, despite the speed with which the EU and US found €2.6 trillion to bail out financial institutions over the course of 2008, coming up with funds for third-world climate measures is now proving much more elusive. Environment ministers did however endorse the sum that the commission had suggested in its January proposals would need to be spent by all countries around the world to combat climate change – roughly €175 billion annually by 2020, with half of that having to be invested in the developing world. –=–=–=– Paris vs. Warsaw The two issues of how much of that half would come from the EU and, crucially, how much from each EU member state are at the heart of debate between the ministers. According to the commission’s proposals, EU financing for the developing world would come either through an annual financial commitment on the basis of an agreed formula, or by a percentage of monies coming from revenues produced by the creation of a carbon market across all wealthy countries similar to Europe’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). If the EU opts for the fixed commitments, the formula to share out the burden would involve a calculation based on a member state’s GDP, its emissions in comparison to GDP, and the size of its population. Paris wants added to this formula a consideration of the amount of emissions per capita. France likes this idea because it has the lowest emissions per capita in the EU. Poland, meanwhile, is not such a great fan because of its dependence on coal, an extremely dirty source of energy. Green groups and development agencies said they were getting impatient with the EU on the question of climate finance. Oxfam meanwhile said that delaying commitments for climate finance in poor countries puts any “global climate deal at risk”. “The EU needs to put money on the table now. Treating poor people’s lives as a bargaining tool in climate negotiations is both immoral and misguided as a negotiating strategy,” said Katia Maia, with Oxfam in Brazil.
The EU itself is committed to cutting its own carbon emissions by 20 percent by 2020 on 1990 levels, or 30 percent if other developed nations agree to a similar cut, although the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 recommendations say wealthy nations must cut emissions by between 25 and 40 percent by 2020 if dangerous consequences for humanity and the environment are to be avoided. Last month, Chris Field, a leading climate scientist with the IPCC, warned the 2007 predictions – upon which EU policy is based – are far too optimistic, meaning that CO2 reductions of 25-40 percent by 2020 are insufficient. At the same time, many of those reductions committed to by the EU will not really be performed domestically, as a large chunk of the 20 or 30 percent will come from so-called carbon offsets – essentially where wealthy countries pay poorer ones to make their carbon cuts for them. Permalink |
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