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The New Climate:

 

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on July 29th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

WORLD NEWS – JULY 29, 2010
 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB40001424…

Climate report shows Earth has heated up over 50 years.

Which in the printed Wall Street version was rechristened – “CLIMATE STUDY CITES 2000 as WARMEST DECADE.” This appropriate to the US inward look of New York, while the above title is clear better positioned for the world at large -

By GAUTAM NAIK

A new assessment concludes that the Earth has been getting warmer over the past 50 years and the past decade was the warmest on record.

The State of the Climate 2009 report, published Wednesday as a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, was compiled by 300 scientists from 48 countries and drew on measures of 10 crucial climate indicators.

Seven of the indicators were rising, including air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, sea level, ocean heat and humidity. Three indicators were declining, including Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.

“Each indicator is changing as we’d expect in a warming world,” said Peter Thorne, senior researcher at the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, a research consortium based in College Park, Md., who was involved in compiling the report.

The report’s conclusions broadly match those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations body, which published its last set of findings in 2007. The IPCC report contained some errors, which further stoked the debate about the existence, causes and effects of global warming.

The new report incorporates data from the past few years that weren’t included in the last IPCC assessment. While the IPCC report concluded that evidence for human-caused global warming was “unequivocal” and was linked to emissions of greenhouse gases, the latest report didn’t seek to address the issue.

The report “doesn’t try to make the link” between climate change and what might be causing it, said Tom Karl, an official at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration involved in the new assessment.

The report said, “Global average surface and lower-troposphere temperatures during the last three decades have been progressively warmer than all earlier decades, and the 2000s (2000-09) was the warmest decade in the instrumental record.” The troposphere is the lowest layer of the atmosphere.

The scientists reported that they were surprised to find Greenland’s glaciers were losing ice at an accelerating rate. They also concluded that 90% of planetary warming over the past 50 years has gone into the oceans. Most of it had accumulated in near-surface layers, home to phytoplankton, tiny plants crucial to virtually all life in the sea.

A new study has found that rising sea temperature may have had a harmful effect on global concentrations of phytoplankton over the past century.

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BUT THE WALL STREET JOURNAL IS VERY ANEMIC ON CONTENT OF ABOVE NEWS – IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHAT REALLY HAPPENED, AS MOSTLY ALMOST – GO TO THE FINANCIAL TIMES. HERE YOU FIND FIONA HARVEY’S FULL ARTICLE – SHE  CONTRIBUTES TO THE EDITORIAL SECTION AS WELL. YOU WILL BE IN THE CLEAR ABOUT THE MACHINATIONS IN WASHINGTON AS WELL.

You will also see there the Washington rot as in the following: Myron Ebell, of the Competitive Enterprise Institute in the US, formerly in charge of energy with the powerful CSIS, said the new report would not change people’s minds. “It’s clear that the scientific case for global warming alarmism is weak. The scientific case for [many of the claims] is unsound and we are finding out all the time how unsound it is.”

You will find that there was no doubt about the implication that it is humans who did it except in the words of that outspoken minority of industry lobbyists that hold power over Washington.

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 http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/author…

NOAA finds “human fingerprints” on climate

July 28th, 2010  by Fiona Harvey

A report from the NOAA in the US has found that data from ten key climate indicators all point to the same finding: the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable.

It is the first major piece of new research since the “Climategate” scandals.

It found that, relying on data from multiple sources, each indicator proved consistent with a warming world. Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, marine air temperature, sea level, ocean heat, humidity, and tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere closest to the earth’s surface. Three indicators are declining: Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the northern hemisphere.

Read the full report here:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate.

 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6d1fd25c-9a69-…

Research says climate change undeniable

By Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent

Published: July 28 2010 – print and on-line.

International scientists have injected fresh evidence into the debate over global warming, saying that climate change is “undeniable” and shows clear signs of “human fingerprints” in the first major piece of research since the “Climategate” controversy.

The research, headed by the US National Oceans and Atmospheric Administration, is based on new data not available for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report of 2007, the target of attacks by sceptics in recent years.

The NOAA study drew on up to 11 different indicators of climate, and found that each one pointed to a world that was warming owing to the influence of greenhouse gases, said Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring at the UK’s Met Office, one of the agencies participating.

Seven indicators were rising, he said. These were: air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, marine air temperature, sea level, ocean heat, humidity, and tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere closest to the earth’s surface. Four indicators were declining: Arctic sea ice, glaciers, spring snow cover in the northern hemisphere, and stratospheric temperatures.

Mr Stott said: “The whole of the climate system is acting in a way consistent with the effects of greenhouse gases.” “The fingerprints are clear,” he said. “The glaringly obvious explanation for this is warming from greenhouse gases.”

Environment ThumbnailSome scientists hailed the study as a refutation of the claims made by climate sceptics during the “Climategate” saga. Those scandals involved accusations – some since proven correct – of flaws in the IPCC’s landmark 2007 report, and the release of hundreds of emails from climate scientists that appeared to show them distorting certain data.

“This confirms that while all of this [Climategate] was going on, the earth was continuing to warm. It shows that Climategate was a distraction, because it took the focus off what the science actually says,” said Bob Ward, policy director of the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics.

But the report nonetheless remained the target of scorn for sceptics.

Myron Ebell, of the Competitive Enterprise Institute in the US, said the new report would not change people’s minds. “It’s clear that the scientific case for global warming alarmism is weak. The scientific case for [many of the claims] is unsound and we are finding out all the time how unsound it is.”

Pat Michaels, a prominent climate sceptic, ex-professor of environmental sciences and fellow of the Cato Institute in the US, said the NOAA study and other evidence suggested that the computerised climate models had overestimated the sensitivity of the earth’s temperature to carbon dioxide. This would mean that the earth could warm a little under the influence of greenhouse gases, but not by as much as the IPCC and others have predicted.

“I think it is the lack of frankness about this that emerged with Climategate, and that seems to continue [that make people doubt the findings],” he said.

Steve Goddard, a blogger, said the conclusion that the first half of 2010 showed a record high temperature was “based on incorrect, fabricated data” because the researchers involved did not have access to much information on Arctic temperatures.

David Herro, the financier, who follows climate science as a hobby, said NOAA also “lacks credibility”.

But Jane Lubchenco, the administrator of NOAA, said the study found that the average temperature in the world had increased by 0.56° C (1° F) over the past 50 years. The rise “may seem small, but it has already altered our planet … Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying, and heat waves are more common.”

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 http://planetark.org/wen/58965

Developing Nations See Cancun Climate Deal Tough.

Date: 29-Jul-10
Country: MEXICO
Author: Brian Ellsworth

Reaching a binding climate deal at the upcoming U.N. conference in Mexico will likely be difficult, delegates from a group of developing nations said on Monday, spurring further doubts about a global climate accord this year.

Environment ministers from Brazil, South Africa, India and China — known as the BASIC group — meeting in Rio de Janeiro said developed nations have not done enough to cut their own emissions or help poor countries reduce theirs.

Delays by the United States and Australia in implementing schemes to cut carbon emissions has added to gloomy sentiment about possible results from the Cancun meeting.

“If by the time we get to Cancun (U.S. senators) still have not completed the legislation then clearly we will get less than a legally binding outcome,” said Buyelwa Sonjica, South Africa’s Water and Environment Affairs minister.

“For us that is a concern, and we’re very realistic about the fact that we may not” complete a legally binding accord, she said.

BASIC nations held deliberations on Sunday and Monday about upcoming climate talks, but the representatives said those talks did not yield a specific proposal on emissions reductions to be presented at the Cancun meeting.

“I think we’re all a bit wiser after Copenhagen, our expectations for Cancun are realistic — we cannot expect any miracles,” said Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh.

He added that countries have failed to make good on promises for $30 billion in “fast track” financing for emissions reduction programs in poor countries.

“The single most important reason why it is going to be difficult is the inability of the developed countries to bring clarity on the financial commitments which they have undertaken in the Copenhagen Accord,” he said.

Hopes for a global treaty on cutting carbon emissions to slow global warming were dealt a heavy blow last year when rich and poor nations were unable to agree on a legally binding mechanism to reduce global carbon emissions.

More than 100 countries backed a nonbinding accord agreed in Copenhagen last year to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, but it did not spell out how this should be achieved.

The U.S. Senate on Thursday postponed an effort to pass broad legislation to combat climate change until September at the earliest, vastly reducing the possibility of such legislation being ready before the Cancun conference begins in December.

Australia has delayed a carbon emissions trading scheme until 2012 under heavy political pressure on from industries that rely heavily on coal for their energy.

The U.N.’s climate agency has detailed contingency options if the world cannot agree a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, whose present round expires in 2012 with no new deal in sight. {But the article does not spell them out and we wonder if they are any different from what we suggested – moving the deliberations away from the UNFCCC – to a much smaller group of Nations modeled along the lines on the evolving G20 with a united EU and a representation of AOSIS/SIDS and Highest suffering countries like Bangladesh on-board,}

Kyoto placed carbon emissions caps on nearly 40 developed countries from 2008-2012. {But Left out any responsibilities for the remaining countries including the above BRICS. Copenhagen was a success in the sense that it made it clear that the BRICS must be part of any agreement if it is going to happen – so, in this trspect, at Copenhagen there was progress – the first time since the beginning of the negotiations within UNFCCC.}

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The comments in green are those made by us – the editor of www.SustainabiliTank.info
WE ARE OPTIMISTS NEVERTHELESS AND WE HOPE THAT WITH THE UN-BASED SMILES FROM THE UN HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK, OUT OF THE WAY, A MORE ATUNNED  CHRISTIANA FIGUERES WILL INDEED COME UP WITH A MORE MANAGEABLE DEBATE.

From the Wikipedia: Karen Christiana Figueres Olsen (born August 7, 1956) was appointed Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 17 May 2010, succeeding Yvo de Boer[1] [2]. She had been a member of the Costa Rican negotiating team since 1995, involved in both UNFCCC[3] and Kyoto Protocol[4] negotiations. She has contributed to the design of key climate change instruments.[5] She is a prime promoter of Latin America’s active participation in the Convention,[6] a frequent public speaker,[7] and a widely published author.[8] She won the Hero for the Planet award in 2001.[9]

For Latin America, in the BASIC group, speaks Brazil which has created for itself the image of an oil-rich country. This might create further difficulties for Ms. Figueres and we do not yet say that Brazil steaked out a final position for Cancun. In effect, the October 3, 2010 elections will have brought to the fore-front a new President for Brazil and we are yet to see his or her position.


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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on July 3rd, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

What does the number 350 mean?

350 is the most important number in the world—it’s what scientists say is the safe upper limit for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Two years ago, after leading climatologists observed rapid ice melt in the Arctic and other frightening signs of climate change, they issued a series of studies showing that the planet faced both human and natural disaster if atmospheric concentrations of CO2 remained above 350 parts per million.

Everyone from Al Gore to the U.N.’s top climate scientist has now embraced this goal as necessary for stabilizing the planet and preventing complete disaster. Now the trick is getting our leaders to pay attention and craft policies that will put the world on track to get to 350.

Is 350 scientifically possible?

Right now, mostly because we’ve burned so much fossil fuel, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is 390 ppm—that’s way too high, and it’s why ice is melting, drought is spreading, forests are dying. To bring that number down, the first task is to stop putting more carbon into the atmosphere. That means a very fast transition to sun and wind and other renewable forms of power. If we can stop pouring more carbon into the atmosphere, then forests and oceans will slowly suck some of it out of the air and return us to safe levels.

Is 350 politically possible?

It’s very hard. It means switching off fossil fuel much more quickly than governments and corporations have been planning. But we can change that–if we mobilize the world to swift and bold climate action, and shift the world to a clean energy future.

What was the day of action in 2009?

On October 24, the International Day of Climate Action covered almost every country on earth, the most widespread day of environmental action in the planet’s history.

There were be big rallies in big cities, and incredible creative actions across the globe: mountain climbers on our highest peaks with banners, underwater demonstrations in island nations threatened by sea level rise, churches and mosques and synagogues and ashrams engaged in symbolic action, star athletes organizing mass bike rides–and hundreds upon hundreds of community events to raise awareness of the need for urgent action.

Every event highlighted the number 350–and people gathered at some point for a big group photo depicting that all important message. At 350.org, we assembled all the photos for a gigantic, global, visual petition.

The thousands of events on October 24 will drive 350 and all that it represents into the human imagination, and helped shift the political climate around climate change. Countries on the front lines of climate change are no longer willing to settle for weak efforts and half-measures. All the actions on October 24 will help our leaders realize we need a real solution that pays attention to the science.

How did this make a difference?

October 24 has finally put the focus where it needs to be: on the science and the citizens, not the special interests and the backroom deals.

People have sent in thousands of images of citizens gathering at important places around the world—from the melting peaks of Mt. Everest to the sinking beaches of the Maldives—displaying the number 350 in a creative way. 350.org staff will display these photos on the big screens in Times Square and projecting them at the UN headquarters. Those photos are appearing in newspapers large and small—the same newspapers that politicians all over the world use as a barometer of public opinion. We’re also delivering copies of the images—and the stories that go with them—to national delegates, environment ministers, and heads of state the world over.

Grassroots global action will be useful to put pressure on world leaders. Together we can remind our leaders that they need to take physical reality—and not political expediency—into account when they’re making decisions about our collective future. 350 is a clear and specific goal (unlike vague demands to “stop global warming”) that helps move politics n the direction science and justice demand. At 350.org, we make sure your voice is heard, and this debate is re-framed in time to make a difference.

350.org is an international grassroots campaign that aims to mobilize a global climate movement united by a common call to action. By spreading an understanding of the science and a shared vision for a fair policy, we will ensure that the world creates bold and equitable solutions to the climate crisis. 350.org is an independent and not-for-profit project.

What is 350?
350 is the number that leading scientists say is the safe upper limit for carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. Scientists measure carbon dioxide in “parts per million” (ppm), so 350ppm is the number humanity needs to get below as soon as possible to avoid runaway climate change. To get there, we need a different kind of PPM-a “people powered movement” that is made of people like you in every corner of the planet.

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10/10/10 Global Work Party

Dear World,

It’s been a tough year: in North America, oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico; in Asia some of the highest temperatures ever recorded; in the Arctic, the fastest melting of sea ice ever seen; in Latin America, record rainfalls washing away whole mountainsides.

So we’re having a party.

Circle 10/10/10 on your calendar. That’s the date. The place is wherever you live. And the point is to do something that will help deal with global warming in your city or community. We’re calling it a Global Work Party.
 http://www.350.org/

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 29th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Thailand Fights Addiction to Plastic Bags.
Lynette Lee Corporal
 http://ipsterraviva.net/UN/currentNew.as…

BANGKOK, June 28 (IPS) – Buy a hairpin and the sales clerk has a microscopic plastic bag for it. A soda purchase from a corner store may end up having the liquid poured into a plastic bag, and then topped off with a plastic straw. There is no plastic bag yet that could fit a car, but if there was one country that could come up with one, Thailand would probably be it.

But here in the capital, local authorities have restarted a campaign to wean the residents of the Thai capital from their plastic bag ‘addiction’. For the second year in a row, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) is holding its 45-day ‘No Bag, No Baht’ project, which offers consumers a one-baht (three U.S. cents) discount for every 100 baht (nearly three dollars) purchase if they use their own cloth bags when shopping in several local markets. Meanwhile, each plastic bag will cost them one baht.

This year’s BMA campaign was launched on Jun. 5, World Environment Day. Last year, the campaign targeted a cutback of 4.4 million plastic bags among Bangkok consumers. This year, BMA authorities want a cutback that is three times that figure. BMA figures show that every day, more than 600,000 plastic bags are used in this city of nine million people.

Their annual disposal cost reaches more than 600 million baht (18.4 million dollars), city officials have said. Local media have quoted BMA deputy governor Porntep Techapaibul as saying that of the city’s daily 10,000 tonnes of trash, about 1,800 tonnes are plastic bags, a number projected to increase by about 20 percent each year.

By now, many Bangkok residents have heard of the health and environmental hazards posed by plastic bags. Made from a non-renewable natural resource, petroleum, the bags have for their main ingredient polyethylene – or polythene – which is said to take 1,000 years to decompose on land and 450 years in water.

But even green-minded residents have problems avoiding the use of plastic bags. Thai Fund Foundation coordinator Chomphu Rammuang says that although she brings a big cloth bag to the supermarket and a lunch pack to work, she can still wind up with a plastic bag in hand by day’s end.

Thailand, after all, is a major manufacturer of plastic. That could help explain why even micro-entrepreneurs here think nothing of shoving their merchandise in plastic bags.

For instance, Yakult health drink vendor Suprathit says that a 100-piece pack of small plastic bags costs her only five baht (15 cents). Pusadee, who sells office lunches in clear plastic bags, also says she buys a kilo of these for 70 baht (two dollars). She says a kilo’s supply lasts her two days.

Thailand produces other plastic products. According to Greenpeace South- east Asia-Thailand country representative Tara Buakamsri, the country is among South-east Asia’s biggest manufacturers of polyvinyl chloride (PVC), which is the third most widely produced plastic after polythylene and polypropylene.

Cheap, durable and easy to assemble, it is often used to make pipes, water bottles, credit cards. It is also non-biodegradable.

In April, the English-language daily ‘Bangkok Post’ reported that domestic demand for PVC is about 450,000 tonnes per year.

A study presented in 2009 by Wuthichai Wongthatsanekorn at the World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology in Dubai, says that the recovery rate of plastic waste in Thailand in 2000 was only 23 percent.

It also says that only about 35 percent of the solid wastes collected from parts of Thailand outside of Bangkok are properly managed, while the rest of the waste products are “piled up in open dumping areas waiting to be dissolved.”

For a campaign to be effective, Tara says, consumers have to be aware of the importance and the long-term effect of the scheme.

“We need to study what economic mechanism will work if plastic bags are banned in Thailand,” he says. “What would be the reaction of the huge plastic industry in the country? What will be the economic incentive for people to follow this campaign?”

The good news, though, is that many establishments like supermarket chain Tesco Lotus and furniture store Home Pro are open to taking part in the BMA project. In fact, even before the ‘No Bag, No Baht’ project was relaunched, Tesco Lotus already had its very own ‘Green Bag Green Point’ campaign. For each bag saved, a customer can earn one Green Clubcard point.

Tesco Lotus senior corporate affairs manager Saofang Ekaluckrujee told IPS in an email interview, “We are very pleased to see policymakers such as the BMA making this issue a national priority. Our Green Bag Green Point scheme’s initial target is to reduce plastic bag usage by 9.8 million bags in 2010.” Other huge shopping malls like Siam Paragon and Central also give incentives like bonus shopper points for not using their bags – plastic or paper ones for that matter – or a 5 percent discount at certain times of the month.

Even small businesses are joining in. During the BMA campaign’s soft relaunch in May, than 5,000 stores in Bangkok’s famous Chatuchak weekend market participated.

Chomphu also reports that her monthly visits to the Chatuchak weekend market have become a pleasant experience, plastic bag-wise. “The vegetarian store near Chatuchak that I go to is actively participating in the project,” she says. “Buyers are encouraged to bring their own bags.”

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 27th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Yellow Sub Finds Clues To Antarctic Glacier’s Thaw

Date: 21-Jun-10
Author: Alister Doyle, Reuters, from Greece.

Yellow Sub Finds Clues To Antarctic Glacier's Thaw
A huge fragment of a giant iceberg is seen through the window of an airplane, floating toward Tierra del Fuego, the tip of South America shared by Argentina and Chile.

A yellow submarine has helped to solve a puzzle about one of Antarctica’s fastest-melting glaciers, adding to concerns about how climate change may push up world sea levels, scientists said Sunday.

The robot submarine, deployed under the ice shelf floating on the sea at the end of the Pine Island Glacier, found that the ice was no longer resting on a subsea ridge that had slowed the glacier’s slide until the early 1970s.

Antarctica is key to predicting the rise in sea levels caused by global warming — it has enough ice to raise sea levels by 57 meters (187 ft) if it ever all melted. Even a tiny thaw at the fringes could swamp coasts from Bangladesh to Florida.

The finding from the 2009 mission “only adds to our concern that this region is indeed the ‘weak underbelly’ of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,” co-author of the study Stan Jacobs at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory said in a statement.

West Antarctica’s thaw accounts for 10 percent of a recently observed rise in sea levels, with melting of the Pine Island glacier quickening, especially in recent decades, according to the study led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Loss of contact with the subsea ridge meant that ice was flowing faster and also thawing more as sea water flowed into an ever bigger cavity that now extended 30 km beyond the ridge. The water was just above freezing at 1 degree Celsius (33.80F).

SATELLITE BUMP:

Satellite photographs in the early 1970s had shown a bump on the surface of the ice shelf, indicating the subsea ridge. That bump has vanished and the 7 meter (22 foot) submarine found the ridge was now up to 100 meters below the ice shelf.

Adrian Jenkins, lead author at BAS, said the study raised “new questions about whether the current loss of ice from Pine Island Glacier is caused by recent climate change or is a continuation of a longer-term process that began when the glacier disconnected from the ridge.”

Pierre Dutrieux, also at BAS, said the ice may have started thinning because of some as yet-unknown mechanism linked to climate change, blamed mainly on mankind’s use of fossil fuels.

“It could be a shift in the wind, due to a change in climate, that pushed more warm water under the shelf,” he told Reuters.

The U.N. panel of climate scientists projected in 2007 that world sea levels could rise by between 18 and 59 cm (7-24 inches) by 2100, excluding risks of faster melting in Antarctica and Greenland. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said the 21st century rise might be 2 meters in the worst case.

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But then there is an additional effect we keep writing about – the pressure the ice is having on the land in the Antarctica. The disconnect from the surface of the land creates a release of pressure on the tectonic plates, and this could cause earthquakes, tsunamis etc. The increase on the level of water does not mean that there is an equal increase of pressure – this because the water is distributed on the surface of the oceans globally and thus is nowhere equal to the localized loss of pressure at the Antarctica.  SustainabiliTank.info editor).

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 20th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

World Day to Combat Desertification: Message from UN Secretary General’s Message and Executive Secretary Luc Gnacadja.

from Andrea Perez <APerez@unccd.int>
date Wed, Jun 16, 2010
subject World Day to Combat Desertification: Message from UN Secretary General’s Message and Executive Secretar Luc Gnacadja
World Day to Combat Desertification, Thursday, 17 June 2010

Please find below the messages of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Luc Gnacadja, Executive Secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, on the occasion of the World Day to Combat Desertification.

Background information on the Day is available online at: http://unccd.int/publicinfo/june17/2010/menu.php

For interviews or more information, contact:
Ms. Wagaki Mwangi
Bonn, Germany
Email: wmwangi@unccd.int or arce@unccd.int
Tel: +49-228-815 2820

THE SECRETARY GENERAL

MESSAGE ON THE WORLD DAY TO COMBAT DESERTIFICATION
AND DROUGHT
17 June 2010

More than one billion poor and vulnerable people living in the world’s drylands, where efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals face particular challenges and thus have lagged behind.

Almost three-quarters of rangelands show symptoms of desertification. Over the past 40 years, nearly one third of the world’s cropland has become unproductive, often ending up abandoned.  The unremitting stress of drought, famine and deepening poverty threatens to create social strains, in turn creating the potential for involuntary migration, the breakdown of communities, political instability and armed conflict.  Indeed, human, environmental and social vulnerability come together with unusual force and symmetry in the world’s drylands.  Climate change will only exacerbate such pressures.

In this International Year of Biodiversity, we must remember that drylands are areas of enormous biological diversity and productivity. Thirty per cent of the crops that are cultivated and consumed in every corner of the world originate in drylands. The biodiversity of dryland soil also plays a critical role in transforming atmospheric carbon into organic carbon – the earth’s largest pool of organic carbon.

When we protect and restore drylands, we advance on many fronts at once: we strengthen food security, we address climate change, we help the poor gain control over their destiny, and we accelerate progress towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.  On this Day, let us reaffirm our commitment to combating desertification and land degradation and mitigating the effects of drought; and let us recognize that enhancing soils enhances life.

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Message from Luc Gnacadja, Executive Secretary, The UN Convention to Combat Desertification.

World Day to Combat Desertification, June 17, 2010

Six to ten inches (18-25 cm) of topsoil are all that stand between us and extinction. There’s far more to this than food. The things that live in and grow from this irreplaceable and finite resource also keep us clothed, the air and water clean, the land green and pleasant and the human soul refreshed. Only now are we starting to comprehend how the tiny life forms in soil sustain productivity and the greater environmental balance.

Already, we know that the species that live in soil are far more abundant than first thought. Microbes in the soil make up most of the biomass of life on earth. They may lack the charisma of the tiger or the orangutan, but the sheer prevalence of soil-dwelling fungi, archaea, bacteria, rotifers and nematodes alone puts all other species in the shade. If we placed all the microbes found in soil on one side of a scale and all surface-dwelling animals on the other, the soil microbes would quite literally outweigh them. Understanding just what their function is thus vital to our broader grasp of environmental management, climate change and human development.

Rain-making bacteria Soil microbes and the tiny animals in earth provide a wide array of ecosystem services, including nutrient cycling, nitrogen fixation, decomposition and pest control, pollination, soil moisture retention, drainage, carbon sequestration, waste recycling and more. They even play little-known but major roles in climate regulation. Research provides growing evidence that, along with dust and other particles, certain bacteria from the soil are swept up by wind to high altitudes, where ice crystals form around them to make rain. Thus, healthy, bacteria-rich soils might well encourage rainfall.

Land degradation and desertification spell the gradual death of soil’s complex web of biota. The disappearance of just a single species from this web can be devastating. Among soil’s “free services” is the harbouring of the larvae of pollinating wasps, beetles, flies and bees. Their contribution to farming alone is extraordinary. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimated in 2005 that of the slightly more than 100 crop species that provide 90 percent of the food for 146 countries, 71 are bee-pollinated. If we lose these “keystone” species, whole edifices will collapse.

Soil biota worth “trillions” Knowing all this, we should attribute proper economic value to soil and to the work of those who tend it. A European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) report in 2009 determined soil biodiversity to be “of immense economic importance.” The report claims that “the monetary value of ecosystem goods and services provided by soils and their associated terrestrial systems … was estimated in 1997 to be 13 trillion US dollars. The soil biota underwrites much of this value.”

We sometimes forget that biodiversity includes us, too. We have long seen ourselves both as part of nature and as nature’s keepers. Some call for a shift from the old paradigm of human domination of the earth and its animals to a less greedy, less invasive coexistence with them. But that does not relieve us of a capital duty. Because we are an all-powerful species, soil’s health – and thus our own – depends in large part on how well we sustain it. And the front-line agents of this sustainability are those who live in the areas most vulnerable to degradation: the drylands.

The people in the drylands The UNCCD’s first strategic objective is to support them in this crucial task. More than one-half of these 2 billion people subsist on less than two dollars a day. By alleviating their poverty, improving the science of sustainable land management, generating sustainable rural incomes from land-based ecosystems and building partnerships with governments, business and civil society, the UNCCD and its 193 Parties are helping them not only to inhabit, farm and use the land sustainably, but also to safeguard topsoil and its benefits for people in distant lands and for generations far into the future.

World Day to Combat Desertification 2010 takes place, as always, on June 17. This year, it also coincides with the International Year of Biodiversity. There is no better time to remind the world of the immense value of soil’s biodiversity and of the work by farmers, rich and poor, to nurture it. “Enhancing soils anywhere enhances life everywhere” is this year’s motto for World Day. It places soil health where it needs to be: at the very foundation of our survival and well-being.

###

About UNCCD
Established in 1994, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) is the sole legally binding international agreement linking environment and development issues to the land agenda. It focuses on drylands, which cover 41% of the Earth and are inhabited by over 2 billion people. Drylands account for 44% of the world’s cultivated ecosystems and have provided 30% of all the world’s cultivated plants. However, eight of the world’s 25 biodiversity ‘hotspots’ are in the drylands and up to one fifth of the drylands have been steadily degraded since the 1980s. The Convention’s 193 Parties are dedicated to improving the living conditions of the world’s poorest 1.2 billion resident in the drylands, to maintaining and restoring the land’s productivity, and to mitigating the effects of drought.

————————————————————————————————-

from Wagaki Mwangi <wmwangi@unccd.int>
date Fri, Jun 18, 2010 at 11:36 AM
subject Coming to the Third Global Media Forum of Deutsche Welle?

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification welcomes you to an exciting exchange on how the media has covered the climate change debate. Specifically, the workshop will focus on how and why land-based emissions are a significant part of the sources of green house gases, but soil carbon sequestration and land-based strategies for adaptation are barely on the agenda of the talks. Moderated by a highly-reputed journalist in Germany, this is not your typical media workshop. If you want to gain a new perspective on climate change come to:

Tuesday, 22 June, 2:00-3:30pm, Trincomalee/Antigua Room , Bonn

Panelists will examine
a) the land issue – agriculture, land degradation, and REDD+ by Luc Gnacadja, Executive Secretary, UN Convention to Combat Desertification
b) soil carbon sequestration by Ralph Ashton, Chair, Terrestrial Carbon Group and visiting scholar at Columbia University, New York
c) climate change adaptation by Johan Schaar, Director, Commission on Climate Change and Development and Sweden
d) reporting by the media and the emerging biases by Prof. Maxwell Boykoff of University of Colorado at Boulder and Visiting Senior Research Associate at Oxford University

A media training pack will is available for participants to the Workshop.

Regards
Wagaki Mwangi

____________________________________

Wagaki Mwangi
Public Information Specialist
Tel: +49 228 815 2820
Fax: +49 228 815 2898/99
UNCCD, ARCE
Hermann-Ehlers-Str.10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Internet: www.unccd.int

—————————————————————————————————————–

UNCCD. World Day to Combat Desertification 17 June 2010.

Theme: Enhancing soils anywhere enhances life everywhere.

(http://www.unccd.int/publicinfo/june17/2010/menu.php).

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 18th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Dr Taroh Matsuno Wins the IMO Prize

Geneva, 18 June 2010 (WMO) – The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has awarded its most prestigious Prize and honoured several distinguished scientists at the annual meeting of its Executive Council.  These scientists have made outstanding contributions in the field of meteorology, climatology, hydrology and related sciences.

The prizes awarded include the WMO IMO Prize, the Norbert Gerbier-MUMM International Award and the WMO Research Award for Young Scientists.

The IMO Prize, the highest WMO award, originates from WMO’s predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization (IMO), was founded in 1873. Dr Taroh Matsuno of Japan was awarded the 55th IMO Prize. Dr Matsuno is an eminent research scientist in the field of atmospheric dynamics and a distinguished leader in climate research. His leadership in climate and meteorological research and his constant devotion in the scientific community have significantly contributed to the progress of studies on climate change and will also contribute to the development of international activities/framework such as the global framework for climate services (GFCS).

The Council conferred the Norbert Gerbier-MUMM International Award for 2010 for the paper entitled “Multi-level and Multi-scale Drought Reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrological suite”, published in the Hydrology Earth System Sciences Discussions in 2009 (Vol. 6 No. 5) by Drs J.-P Vidal, E. Martin, L. Francistéguy, F. Habets, J.-M. Soubeyroux, M. Blanchard and M. Baillon, all from France.

The Council also conferred the 2010 WMO Research Award for Young Scientists to Juan José  Ruiz, from Argentina, for the paper entitled “Application of ensemble forecasts to weather prediction at short range over South America” PhD Thesis, and to Gabriela Szepszo, from Hungary, for the paper entitled “Transient simulation of the REMO regional climate model and its evaluation over Hungary”, published in Idojaras.

    The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s
    authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water

For more information please contact at the WMO Communications and Public Affairs Office:

Ms Carine Richard-Van Maele, Chief, Tel: +41 (0)22 730 83 15, E-mail: cpa@wmo.int

Website: http://www.wmo.int

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 13th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Probe at UN climate talks after Saudi sign smashed

Saturday, 12 June 2010 10:06
author:Reuters
POLITICS & ECONOMICS / NEWS
by Reuters, Saturday, 12 June 2010

SAUDI STANCE: Saudi angered many by blocking study of global  warming. (Getty Images)

SAUDI STANCE: Saudi angered many by blocking study of global warming. (Getty Images)

UN climate negotiators agreed to an investigation on Friday after protesters smashed a sign emblazoned “Saudi Arabia” and dropped it in toilet after Riyadh blocked a study of deeper cuts in greenhouse gases.

Many countries condemned the protest, after Saudi Arabia blocked a request by small island states at the May 31-June 11 talks for a study of tougher cuts in greenhouse gases to help slow a rise in world sea levels.


Mexico’s delegate Luis Alfonso de Alba, whose country will host the main climate talks in late 2010, said he was initiating an investigation by the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat.

Pieces of the smashed Saudi Arabia sign – about 30 cm and placed on a table to identify the delegation during negotiations – were dropped in a toilet and then photographed, delegates said. The pictures were then put up on some walls.

“This is a serious incident. We should fully support that the secretariat should carry out an investigation and the result should be informed to the parties,” Chinese delegate Su Wei said.

Lebanon’s delegate also said that the Saudi flag was abused during a protest in the conference hall after Saudi Arabia blocked the small island state’s push.

Saudi Arabia has often expressed worries at U.N. climate negotiations that a shift towards renewable energies will undermine its oil export earnings.

It opposed the small island state’s push for a study of limiting global warming, saying that wider issues such as the impact on exporters, also had to be taken into account.

———————————-

Sabotage to blame for World Cup fiasco – Al Jazeera.

by Andy Sambidge, ArabianBusiness.com, Friday, 11 June 2010
 http://www.arabianbusiness.com/590311-te…

 http://www.arabianbusiness.com/590345-al…

Al Jazeera Sport, which suffered major technical problems during its broadcast of the FIFA World Cup to Middle East viewers, has blamed “a deliberate act of sabotage”.

Its exclusive coverage of the South Africa versus Mexico match on Friday was hit by regular transmission problems with fan across the region unable to enjoy the spectacle.

“Al Jazeera Sport would like to condemn the actions of those involved in the deliberate attempts to block its signal during its World Cup broadcasts yesterday,” Al Jazeera Sport said in a statement published by media in Qatar on Saturday.

“Despite its considerable efforts to bring the best coverage to the most possible fans across the Middle East and North Africa including 18 free-to-air games from the group stages, Al Jazeera Sport viewers repeatedly lost their signal through the course of yesterday’s opening fixture,” the statement added.

“This loss of signal was completely beyond Al Jazeera Sport’s control and they share in the frustrations of all those whose enjoyment was spoiled by what was a deliberate act of sabotage.”


Football fans across the Middle East cried foul on Friday as the start of Al Jazeera’s broadcast of the FIFA World Cup was hit by blank screens. Fans across Dubai, including thousands watching at special events across the emirate, reported technical problems.

Hundreds of fans also complained about the problems on Twitter.

Technical problems hit the beginning of the coverage by the Qatar based TV station with its special World Cup channels frozen or broadcasting in the wrong language in a number of countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Egypt.

For most of the first half an hour of the first game between hosts South Africa and Mexico, viewers were left with no picture or a frozen screen.

The issues appeared to have been sorted out shortly before half time but problems persisted throughout the second half of the match.

Broadcasts on the English language channel morphed into French commentary from the start and then the channel went blank. The English commentary only appeared much later in the first half of the game.

The only coverage working throughout was the HD channel broadcasting in Arabic only.

Broadcasting rights across the region are owned by Al Jazeera Sport, and can currently be accessed either by purchasing an Al Jazeera Sports card or through Etisalat’s pay TV E-Vision.

————————

Al Jazeera has ‘FIFA backing’ to tackle World Cup woes

by Andy Sambidge, Saturday, 12 June 2010, ArabianBusiness.com

BACKUP PLAN: Al Jazeera Sport has implemented its contingency plan  to minimise future World Cup disruption which has been blamed on  saboteurs. (Getty Images)
BACKUP PLAN: Al Jazeera Sport has implemented its contingency plan to minimise future World Cup disruption which has been blamed on saboteurs. (Getty Images)

The general manager of Al Jazeera Sport said on Saturday that the company had implemented a “back up plan” to minimise future disruption to its FIFA World Cup coverage, adding that it had the full backing of FIFA to tackle the problem.

Nasser Al Khelaifi told Arabian Business in a telephone interview that the people responsible for “destroying our signal” would be found “very soon”.

However, later on Saturday, the broadcaster experienced further technical problems, notably during the Argentina v Nigeria match, as protests mounted up on social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook.

Al Khelaifi said that the TV station had the “full backing” of World Cup organisers FIFA to find the culprits he accused of deliberately jammed the Nilesat and Arabsat satellites.

In a statement, FIFA said: “FIFA is supporting Al Jazeera in trying to locate the source of the interference in the broadcast of the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa. FIFA is appalled by any action to try to stop Al Jazeera’s authorised transmissions of the FIFA World Cup as such actions deprive football fans from enjoying the world game in the region. It is not acceptable to FIFA.”

Al Jazeera Sport suffered major technical problems during its broadcast of the opening World Cup match between South Africa versus Mexico on Friday.

Al Khelaifi said: “The people who were responsible did not steal the TV rights of Al Jazeera yesterday, they stole the viewers’ rights because this was a match that was being broadcast free to everyone. Of course we have been in contact with FIFA and they are supporting us to find them [the people responsible].”

He added that Al Jazeera was working with “a number of international specialised companies” to track down the culprits and that he was confident they would be found soon.

In a statement released earlier, the TV company said: “Al Jazeera Sport would like to condemn the actions of those involved in the deliberate attempts to block its signal during its World Cup broadcasts yesterday”, adding that it was a “deliberate act of sabotage”.

Al Khelaifi told Arabian Business that its contingency plan to minimise future disruption was now in operation but added that he could not say if future satellite attacks would happen during the football tournament.

“I think these people are sick,” he said, adding that everything was being done to ensure the best possible TV coverage for the rest of the tournament.

Technical problems hit the beginning of the coverage by the Qatar based TV station with its special World Cup channels frozen or broadcasting in the wrong language in a number of countries across the Middle East.

For most of the first half an hour of the first game between hosts South Africa and Mexico, viewers were left with no picture or a frozen screen.

The issues appeared to have been sorted out shortly before half time but problems persisted throughout the second half of the match.

The second match of the night – France v Uruguay – was unaffected.

Al Khelaifi could not put a figure on how many viewers were affected by the disruption on Friday but said that 85m people had tuned in for Al Jazeera’s coverage of the Champions League Final last month.

Broadcasting rights across the region are exclusively owned by Al Jazeera Sport

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 8th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

June 8, 2010 – The Second UN Celebration of The World Ocean’s Day and a Look At The UN Law Of The Sea. Was There A Review of the Effects of Stealing From The Global Commons and The Rape of the Environment as We Witness Now Perpetually on our TV Screens? There Is A UN Law Of The Sea They Say! In 2001 Our “Promptbook” was Published on These Topics.

THESE DAYS  THE WHOLE WORLD WATCHES THE US LOSING THE GOLF OF MEXICO ENVIRONMENT TO THE GREED OF MINING FOR OIL AT UNBELIEVABLE DEPTH WITHOUT HAVING BEEN PREPARED TO AN EVENTUALITY OF A MISHAP.

THIS MINING FOR OIL GOES ON IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF SOVEREIGNTY CLAIMS OF ANYONE – IN EFFECT THIS HAPPENS AKIN TO PIRACY AT HIGH SEA – ROBBERY FROM THE GLOBAL COMMONS AS WE CLAIMED IN OUR PROMPTBOOK TO THE JOHANNEBURG SUMMIT ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WHICH YOU CAN READ RIGHT HERE ON www.SustainabiliTank.info.

THE UN IS CELEBRATING TODAY “THE WORLD OCEAN’S DAY” AND WE WOULD HAVE WANTED TO BE PRESENT AND POSE SOME RELATED QUESTIONS – BUT THE UN Department of Public Information, even now, after the Departure of UN Official Ahmad Fawzi, IS STILL LEARY OF HAVING PRESENT JOURNALISTS THAT ARE NOT UNDER THEIR CONTROL.

WE PROMISE NEVERTHELESS TO FOLLOW THE SUBJECT AND FIND OUT IF THERE WAS ANYTHING BUT PLATITUDES AT THAT PRESS CONFERENCE.

8 JUNE 2010, 11:00 am    Dag. Ham. Auditorium

Press Conference: by the Department of Public Information about World Ocean’s Day.

Participants: Professor David Freestone, Lobingier Visiting Professor of Comparative Law and Jurisprudence, George Washington University;

Dr. Sylvia Earle, National Georgraphic Explorer-in-Residence and Adviser to Disneynature on the film “Ocean”;

and H.E. Mrs. Isabelle Picco, Permanent Representative of the Principality of Monaco to the United Nations.


Related Link: http://www.un.org/Depts/los/reference_fi…

8 June -  World Oceans Day

In 2008, the United Nations General Assembly decided that, as from 2009, 8 June would be designated by the United Nations as “World Oceans Day” (resolution 63/111, paragraph 171).  Many countries have celebrated World Oceans Day following the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, which was held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.

The oceans are essential to food security and the health and survival of all life, power our climate and are a critical part of the biosphere. The official designation of World Oceans Day is an opportunity to raise global awareness of the current challenges faced by the international community in connection with the oceans.

——————

8 June 2009 – The first observance of World Oceans Day allows us to highlight the many ways in which oceans contribute to society. The UN Secretary General declared:  “It is also an opportunity to recognize the considerable challenges we face in maintaining their capacity to regulate the global climate, supply essential ecosystem services and provide sustainable livelihoods and safe recreation.”

Indeed, human activities are taking a terrible toll on the world’s oceans and seas.

Vulnerable marine ecosystems, such as corals, and important fisheries are being damaged by over-exploitation, illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, destructive fishing practices, invasive alien species and marine pollution, especially from land-based sources. Increased sea temperatures, sea-level rise and ocean acidification caused by climate change pose a further threat to marine life, coastal and island communities and national economies.

Oceans are also affected by criminal activity.  Piracy and armed robbery against ships threaten the lives of seafarers and the safety of international shipping, which transports 90 per cent of the world’s goods.  Smuggling of illegal drugs and the trafficking of persons by sea are further examples of how criminal activities threaten lives and the peace and security of the oceans.

Several international instruments drawn up under the auspices of the United Nations address these numerous challenges.  At their centre lies the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. It provides the legal framework within which all activities in the oceans and seas must be carried out, and is the basis for international cooperation at all levels.  In addition to aiming at universal participation, the world must do more to implement this Convention and to uphold the rule of law on the seas and oceans.

The theme of World Oceans Day, “Our oceans, our responsibility”, emphasizes our individual and collective duty to protect the marine environment and carefully manage its resources.  Safe, healthy and productive seas and oceans are integral to human well-being, economic security and sustainable development.

————

8 June 2010 – Programme Second observance of World Oceans Day

“Our oceans: opportunities and challenges”
Observance at United Nations Headquarters:
i. Message by the Secretary-General
ii. Press Conference
(DH Auditorium at 11:00) with:
-Prof. David Freestone, Lobingier Visiting Professor of Comparative Law and
Jurisprudence, George Washington University;
-H.E. Mrs. Isabelle PICCO, Ambassador, Permanent Representative of the
Principality of Monaco to the United Nations; and
-Dr. Sylvia Earle, National Geographic Explorer-in-Residence and Adviser to
Disneynature on the film “Oceans”
iii. Roundtable discussion on “UNCLOS 15 years after its entry into force”,
sponsored by the Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, Office of
Legal Affairs (Conference Room 1 at NLB, 15:00 – 17:30)
1. How effectively is UNCLOS operating, as the legal framework for the
oceans and seas?
Focusing on:
The right of States to establish Maritime Zones under UNCLOS
- Prof. Bernard H. Oxman, Richard A. Hausler Professor of Law,
University of Miami
Combating piracy, in particular the case of piracy off the coast of Somalia

-  Prof. Robert Beckman, Director, Centre for International Law, National
University of Singapore
The conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity, including MGRs

-  Ms. Emma Romano Sarne, Second Secretary, Permanent Mission of
the Republic of the Philippines to the United Nations
2. UNCLOS into the 21st century
Focusing on:
How to enhance the implementation of UNCLOS at the national level
- Professor Ted L. McDorman, Faculty of Law, University of Victoria
Is regional cooperation a way to enhance ocean governance?

-  Prof. Lucia Fanning, Director of Marine Affairs Programme, Dalhousie
University

Moderator
- Prof. David Freestone, Lobingier Visiting Professor of Comparative Law
and Jurisprudence, George Washington University

—-
iv. Screening of the Disneynature feature “Oceans”, co-sponsored by the
Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, Office of Legal Affairs, and
the Permanent Mission of Monaco to the United Nations (18:00 – 20:00)
(General Assembly Hall)

—-
Observance outside United Nations Headquarters:


v. Empire State Building in New York City (Lighting, from white, blue to purple to
signify the entirety of the oceans from the shallows to the darker depths, to
mark the observance of World Oceans Day by the United Nations)

That is a time we will spend rather at the:

Oil Spill Forum, Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Responses to the Oil Spill:
a Panel and Public Forum
Tuesday, June 8, 7 – 9 PM

Wollman Hall, 5th Floor
The New School
65 West 11th, NY 10011

The ongoing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico opens up many questions: What should BP’s role be in the cleanup?
What is BP’s legal liability?  Is greater regulation of offshore drilling enough, or should there be a complete moratorium?

How do we eliminate fossil fuel dependence and embrace renewable energy?  Should NYC act now to reduce our consumption of oil?  How do we make this change happen–public education, or street protests?    To succeed, we must answer these questions at the national, state, city, and personal levels.

Public brainstorming, starting with brief remarks from representatives of sponsoring organizations, moving into discussion groups to formulate possible actions, and finishing with feedback from all attendees.    This is your chance to learn how New Yorkers can get involved and make a difference!

Sponsors: Sierra Club NYC, MoveOn, Greater NYC for Change, and Tishman Environment and Design Center at the New School

For further information please contact beyondoilnyc@yahoo.com

——————————-

UN DAILY NEWS from the
UNITED NATIONS NEWS SERVICE

8 June, 2010 =========================================================================

UN GETS SET FOR WORLD CUP KICK-OFF AND RENEWED PUSH ON ANTI-POVERTY TARGETS.Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon arrived today in Johannesburg ahead of Friday’s World Cup opening ceremony in the same city, beginning a five-nation African tour that will also take the UN chief to Burundi, Cameroon, Benin and Sierra Leone.

Mr. Ban held talks with South African President Jacob Zuma and later addressed the “Sports for Peace” gala dinner tonight alongside Wilfried Lemke, the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Sport for Development and Peace. In his speech Mr. Ban highlighted the unifying power of sport and underscored the importance of the MDGs.

As part of the UN-wide effort, agencies that include the UN Development Programme (UNDP), the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) have started promoting 8 Goals for Africa, a song recorded by eight artists from across the continent. A video recorded for the song will be shown in public viewing areas in South Africa throughout the World Cup.

The UN Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) is holding community events in slum neighbourhoods that aim to promote sustainable urbanization; UNICEF is staging football festivals to raise awareness about the fight against child trafficking and exploitation; and the UN Office for the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) is screening TV programmes about racism and tolerance.

Numerous other events and campaigns involving UN agencies, including the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the International Labour Organization (ILO), the UN Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM), the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and the Joint UN Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), will also be held.

The renewed push on the MDGs is taking place just three months before world leaders are scheduled to gather at UN Headquarters in New York in September to chart the progress so far towards achieving the eight MDGs and discuss the ways forward.

At the Millennium Summit in 2000, world leaders agreed to try to attain the MDGs – which include halving the number of people living in extreme poverty, tackling environmental degradation, and slashing maternal mortality – by 2015.

– –

But the UN Secretary-General also found the time to leave a message for the meeting on the seas:
BAN CALLS FOR GREATER AWARENESS OF THE VALUE OF OCEANS TO HUMANITY.

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today urged governments and citizens across the global to acknowledge the enormous value of the world’s oceans to humanity and ensure that pollution of the bodies of water by human activity is brought under control.

“The diversity of life in the oceans is under ever-increasing strain. Over-exploitation of marine living resources, climate change, and pollution from hazardous materials and activities all pose a grave threat to the marine environment.

“So does the growth of criminal activities, including piracy, which have serious implications for the security of navigation and the safety of seafarers,” Mr. Ban said in a message to mark the World Oceans Day.

He said oceans played a key role in people’s daily lives and were crucial to sustainable development, and an important frontier for research, with scientists exploring them at greater depths than ever before to discover new forms of marine life, which had the potential to advance human well-being.

“But, if we are to fully benefit from what oceans have to offer, we must address the damaging impacts of human activities,” the Secretary-General said on the second annual commemoration of the Day.

He said that much action had been taken within the framework of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the so-called “constitution for the oceans.”

“But if we are to safeguard the capacity of the oceans to service society’s many and varied needs, we need to do much more,” he added.

The UN Scientific, Education and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) also sent out a message to highlight the importance of oceans to mankind and galvanize the world to act to stop damaging them.

“The wastes of our society, flowing from the land, and through the atmosphere, from agriculture, industry and a growing urban population can be seen in the fragile coastal waters and measured even in the centre of the water masses,” the message said.

“We must collectively and unambiguously acknowledge the importance of the oceans to our existence on the planet. The ocean cleanses the air we breathe; it influences our weather, climate, and the water on which we depend.”

The message was accompanied by an “Ocean Call,” which appeals for priority to be given to programmes in coastal and ocean management, ocean sciences and ocean technologies.

The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), a programme of UNESCO, chose the World Oceans Day to kick off events to mark its 50th anniversary.

“IOC, in partnership with other UN agencies and hundreds of associated oceanographic and marine research laboratories, is playing a vital role in addressing some of the major challenges facing the world,” said UNESCO’s Director-General, Irina Bokova.

The challenges include identifying and protecting marine biodiversity, monitoring global climate change and coordinating tsunami warning systems.

– — –

SustainabiliTank.info honors UNESCO for their statement, but is appalled by the message attributed to Mr. Ban.

That message regards the ocean and all there is in the oceans as a function of what it can do for man. The Law of the Sea is hardly a “Constitution” it really does not even regulate the rights of the human species so it has “fully benefit from what oceans have to offer.” From his perspective, Mr. Ban’s message concludes nevertheless: “But if we are to safeguard the capacity of the oceans to service society’s many and varied needs, we need to do much more,” he added. And as the good diplomat he is, he made no mention of the miseries which are the order of the day – these days.

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on June 8th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

fromMRM <moothedathramanathan@gmail.com>

“Conserving energy is cheaper and smarter than building power plants” (Dr. Arthur Rosenfeld).

The watt. The volt. The ohm. All electrical terms are named after famous engineers and physicists from the 18th and 19th century. Now, an acclaimed 20th century scientist is lending his name to a new unit of energy savings – the ‘Rosenfeld.’

The proposed term – a ‘Rosenfeld’ – would represent the electricity savings of 3 billion kilowatt-hours per year — the annual output of an existing 500 megawatt coal-fired power plant – and avoid generating three million metric tons of CO2 emissions. The new energy-savings measurement term was authored by 54 scientists from 26 research institutions and announced in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research Letters.

For your leisure time reading – a clean energy monthly E-zine from India          E_mag_June_2010.pdf

MRM says:  We shall be pleased if you could send us your views/comments/suggestions to make our publication more informative and useful.

——————–

“The Rosenfeld” Named After California’s Godfather of Energy Efficiency.

With a decades-long career in energy analysis and standards, Rosenfeld is often credited with being personally responsible for billions of dollars in energy savings.

How to cut energy use, carbon? Do it – One “Rosenfeld” at a time.

Arthur Rosenfeld, who recently retired at the age of 83 after two five-year terms on the California Energy Commission, led the way in helping the state set its first-ever energy standards for household appliances and buildings. His mission as an energy-efficiency evangelist was launched in 1973 during the OPEC oil embargo … rather than rail on the oil producers, he reasoned, wouldn’t it be better if the US could find ways to stop wasting so much energy?

His impact on California’s per capita electricity consumption, which has remained flat since the mid-’70s, has long been dubbed the “Rosenfeld effect.” And he himself coined “Rosenfeld’s Law,” which asserts that the amount of energy required to produce one dollar of economic output has decreased by about 1 per cent per year since 1845.

Eighty Year Old Saved Us $800 Billion - 

Ode to Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Doctor Efficiency - Courtesy California Energy Commission

Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Ph.D. was originally appointed to the California Energy Commission by Governor Gray Davis in April 2000. The Commissioner was reappointed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger January 26, 2005. The five members of the Energy Commission are appointed by the Governor to staggered five-year terms and requires Senate confirmation. By law, four of the five members of the Energy Commission have professional training in specific areas – engineering or physical science, environmental protection, economics, law, and one commissioner from the public-at-large. Commissioner Rosenfeld filled the physical science position until his retirement in January 2010.

Commissioner Rosenfeld was presiding member of the Research, Development and Demonstration Committee and the Dynamic Pricing Committee (Ad Hoc Committee); and was the second member of the Energy Efficiency Committee.

Art Rosenfeld received his Ph.D. in Physics in 1954 at the University of Chicago under Nobel Laureate Enrico Fermi, and then joined the Department of Physics at the University of California at Berkeley. There he joined, and eventually oversaw, the Nobel prize-winning particle physics group of Luis Alvarez at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) until 1974. At that time, he changed his research focus to the efficient use of energy, formed the Center for Building Science at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and led it until 1994.
 http://newscenter.lbl.gov/feature-storie…

 http://www.energy.ca.gov/commissioners/r…

 http://www.greenbang.com/how-to-cut-ener…

 http://earth2tech.com/2010/03/15/how-do-…

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on May 3rd, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Which parts of the Atlantic seaboard will be swallowed by rising seas? This EPA scientist can tell you. Too bad no one’s listening.

Buh-bye East Coast Beaches

 http://motherjones.com/environment/2010/…

— Photo by Kate Sheppard

Which parts of the Atlantic seaboard will be swallowed by rising seas? This EPA scientist can tell you. Too bad no one’s listening.

— By Josh Harkinson

Also from the Climate Desk: The quickest way to adapt to rising sea levels? Build a wall.

For most of the 20th century, Chesapeake Beach, Maryland, was known for its boardwalk, amusement park, and wide, sandy beaches, popular with daytrippers from Washington, DC. “The bathing beach has a frontage of three miles,” boasted a tourist brochure from about 1900, “and is equal, if not superior, to any beach on the Atlantic Coast.”

Today, on a cloudless spring afternoon, the resort town’s sweeping view of Chesapeake Bay is no less stunning. But there’s no longer any beach in Chesapeake Beach. Where there once was sand, water now laps against a seven-foot-high wall of boulders protecting a strip of pricey homes marked with “No Trespassing” signs.

Surveying the armored shoreline, Jim Titus explains how the natural sinking of the shoreline and slow but steady sea-level rise, mostly due to climate change, have driven the bay’s water more than a foot higher over the past century. Reinforcing the eroding shore with a sea wall held the water back, but it also choked off the natural supply of sand that had replenished the beach. What sand remained gradually sank beneath the rising water.

Titus, the Environmental Protection Agency’s resident expert on sea-level rise, first happened upon Maryland’s disappearing beaches 15 years ago while looking for a place to windsurf. “Having the name ‘beach,’” he discovered, “is not a very good predictor of having a beach.” Since then, he’s kept an eye out for other beach towns that have lost their namesakes—Maryland’s Masons Beach and Tolchester Beach, North Carolina’s Pamlico Beach, and many more. (See a map of Maryland’s phantom beach towns here.) A 54-year old with a thick shock of hair and sturdy build, Titus could pass for a vacationer in his Panama hat, khakis, and polo shirt. But as he picks his way over the rocky shore, he’s anything but relaxed.

For nearly 30 years, Titus has been sounding the alarm about our rising oceans. Global warming is melting polar ice, adding to the volume of the oceans, as well as warming up seawater, causing it to expand. Most climatologists expect oceans around the world to rise between 1.5 and 5 feet this century. Some of the hardest-hit areas could be in our own backyard: Erosion and a shift in ocean currents could cause water to rise four feet or more along much of the East Coast. Titus, who contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Nobel Prize-winning reports, has done more than anyone to determine how those rising seas will affect us and what can be done about them.

Like his occasional collaborator, NASA climatologist James Hansen, Titus has decided to speak out. He’s crisscrossed the country to meet with state and local officials in coastal areas, urging them to start planning now for the slow-motion flood. Yet his warnings have mostly fallen on deaf ears. “We were often told by mid-level officials that their bosses did not want to plan for anything past the next election,” he says.

Neither, it seems, does the federal government. Over the past decade, Titus and a team of contractors combined reams of data to construct a remarkably detailed model of how sea-level rise will impact the eastern seaboard. It was the largest such study ever undertaken, and its findings were alarming: Over the next 90 years, 1,000 square miles of inhabited land on the East Coast could be flooded, and most of the wetlands between Massachusetts and Florida could be lost. The favorably peer-reviewed study was scheduled for publication in early 2008 as part of a Bush Administration report on sea-level rise, but it never saw the light of day—an omission criticized by the EPA’s own scientific advisory committee. Titus has urged the more science-friendly Obama administration to publish his work, but so far, it hasn’t—and won’t say why.

So Titus recently launched a personal website, risingsea.net, to publish his work. “I decided to do my best to prevent the taxpayer investment from being wasted,” he says. The site includes “When the North Pole Melts,” a prescient holiday ditty recorded by his musical alter ego, Captain Sea Level, in the late ’80s.

Titus gazes at Chesapeake Beach’s jagged shoreline, where two children scramble over the barrier of large grey boulders known as a revetment. “The children of 21st Century Chesapeake Beach, what do they do?” he asks. “They play on revetments.” A generation ago, these kids might have been skipping through the waves. A generation from now, many of the rocks they’re playing on will almost certainly be underwater.

Living near the ocean has always come with the risk of getting wet. Yet coastal dwellers whose homes got swamped by the occasional storm surge could rely on the water to eventually recede. That certainty is gone. Titus has calculated that a three-foot rise in sea level will push back East Coast shorelines an average of 300 to 600 feet in the next 90 years, threatening to submerge densely developed areas inhabited by some 3 million people, including large parts of New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. As Margaret Davidson, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coastal Services Center in Charleston, South Carolina, puts it, “Today’s flood is tomorrow’s high tide.”

The rising waters can be kept at bay by constructing dikes and bulkheads, pumping sand to fill out receding beaches, and elevating existing buildings and roads on embankments or pylons. But such efforts may prove prohibitively expensive—Titus says that in the lower 48 states alone, they could cost as much as $1 trillion over the next century, and he estimates that in the process, 60 to 90 percent of the East Coast’s wetlands could be destroyed as bulkheads and other defensive measures restrict the movement of estuaries and marshes, drowning them when the ocean rises.

So are developers getting ready for the water? The National Association of Home Builders, the housing industry’s largest trade group, has no policy on adapting coastal projects to account for rising sea levels. “While sea level rise may be a real issue in some areas,” Susan Asmus, NAHB’s senior vice president of regulatory and environmental affairs, told me in an email, “it is but one of many considerations that are likely already taken into account during the planning process.” Mother Jones contacted the nation’s 10 largest homebuilders, including D.R. Horton, Pulte Homes, and Lennar; none would say how they are responding to sea level rise.

Nor is there any evidence that the issue has much traction with homeowners—and why should it? Property insurance is readily available in most coastal areas, if not through private insurers, then through state governments and FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program. Though the NFIP requires policyholders to live above the 100-year high-water mark, it doesn’t account for how that line may creep inland in the future. Besides, most people would plan to resell their beach houses long before they expect them to be swallowed by encroaching waves.

What about government? Most coastal states have done little or nothing to regulate shoreline development, often for fear of litigation. In 1988, South Carolina’s Beachfront Management Act required new beach homes to be set back far enough from the water to be protected from at least 40 years of erosion. A property owner named David Lucas sued, and the US Supreme Court eventually ruled that the construction ban had deprived him of any “economically viable use” of his coastal properties, a “taking” that required the state to compensate him. “After Lucas, fewer people spoke seriously about stopping development,” Titus says.

A few state and local governments have taken more constructive action. Several states limit development near tidal waters (Maine and Rhode Island have done this specifically in response to sea-level rise). Chatham, Massachusetts, cites sea-level rise as one reason why it prohibits new homes, even elevated ones, below 100-year flood lines. (State courts have upheld those limits in Chatham and Maine because they still allow property to be used for recreation, farming, and other profitable activities.) In California, where erosion and winter storms routinely knock multimillion dollar homes off seaside cliffs, the state’s Coastal Commission has long required anyone who builds on coastal bluffs to submit a geotechnical report proving that their home won’t fall into the ocean. Three years ago, it began requiring the reports to account for sea-level rise. And in a groundbreaking 2008 executive order, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger directed state agencies to plan for sea-level rise in their construction projects.

A handful of developers have also started to seriously grapple with sea-level rise. A residential high-rise project on Treasure Island, a former naval base in the San Francisco Bay, is being built far from the shoreline and is reserving funds for a protective berm if the water rises even higher than the three feet that’s anticipated. And in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the insurance industry drew up standards to fortify houses for stronger hurricanes and higher waves; so far, though, only 200 houses nationwide have been built to comply with the standards.

Most coastal dwellers are focused on riding out the next surge, not the next century. You can’t really blame them—nobody really wants to hear that their days on the beach are numbered.

Case in point: Beyoncé’s dad. Matthew Knowles has been locked in a bitter struggle to save his beach house in Galveston, which now sits on top of the high-tide line thanks to Hurricane Ike. In most states, Knowles would be allowed to shore up his home, but not in Texas, which is known for one of the most progressive laws in the country on beach access. The state’s Open Beaches Act provides that beach as a public resource that must be protected from “erosion or reduction caused by development.”

Last year, after Knowles started reinforcing his property with tons of cement, the Texas General Land Office informed him that paving over the beach is illegal. Even so, he continued and then surrounded his home with sod, planters, and sandbags. In March, the agency notified Knowles that it was preparing to fine him up to $2,000 a day for violating the Texas Open Beaches Act by interfering with “the right of the public to use the beach.” Knowles did not respond to a request for comment.

Historically, the 51-year-old law has been used to prevent property owners from walling off the beach in front of their homes. But officials say the law clearly applies even when the beach comes to the houses, rather than vice versa. “Even if you make $80 million a year, we don’t care,” says Jim Suydam, a spokesman for the Texas General Land Office. “The beach is the public’s.” Incorporated into the state constitution last year and vigorously supported by the state’s conservative, gun-packing land commissioner, the Open Beaches Act is remarkably popular, in part because it can guarantee beach access for ATVs.

Titus views the Texas Open Beaches Act as one of the more promising tools for preparing for higher water. It has unintended environmental benefits, ensuring that beaches can migrate inland instead of being walled off [link to sidebar]—and at the same time, it sidesteps any debate over climate change. “Developers who deny that the sea will rise would view the policy as costing them nothing,” because it wouldn’t prevent them from building near the shore, he notes. Only the diehard beach dwellers would stand to get soaked.

With additional reporting by Kate Sheppard.

This piece was produced by Mother Jones as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

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Josh Harkinson is a staff reporter at Mother Jones. For more of his stories, click here.

T

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on April 27th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Arctic Explorers Get Nasty Surprise: Rain

Date: 28-Apr-10
Elef Rignes Island,CANADA
by David Ljunggren

In what looks to be another sign the Arctic is heating up quickly, British explorers in Canada’s Far North reported on Tuesday that they had been hit by a three-minute rain shower over the weekend.

The rain fell on the team’s ice base off Ellef Rignes island, about 3,900 km (2,420 miles) north of the Canadian capital, Ottawa.

“It’s definitely a shocker … the general feeling within the polar community is that rainfall in the high Canadian Arctic in April is a freak event,” said Pen Hadow, the team’s expedition director.

“Scientists would tell us that we can expect increasingly to experience these sorts of outcomes as the climate warms,” he told Reuters in a telephone interview from London.

The Arctic is heating up three times more quickly than the rest of the Earth. Scientists link the higher temperatures to the greenhouse gas emissions blamed for global warming.

Tyler Fish, a polar guide at the base, said the rain fell after temperatures had been rising for a couple of days.

“I think we were disappointed. Rain isn’t something you expect in the Arctic and a lot of us came up here to be away from that kind of weather,” he said.

“We worry that if it’s too warm maybe some of the scientific samples will start to thaw … or the food will get too warm and spoil,” he told Reuters by satellite phone.

Hadow said a Canadian scientific camp about 145 km west of the ice base had been hit by rain at the same time.

The base off Elles Rignes is supplying a three-member team out on the ice another 1,100 km further north. The trio is studying the impact of increased carbon dioxide absorption by the sea, which could make the water more acidic.

Experts say the thick multiyear ice covering the Arctic Ocean has effectively vanished, which could make it easier to open up polar shipping routes. U.S. data shows the 2009 ice cover was the third-lowest on record, after 2007 and 2008.

Hadow said the team carrying out the carbon dioxide experiments had noticed that ice was abnormally thin and was moving around more than they expected. The winds were stronger than usual.

Earlier this month an ice floe the team’s tent was moored on suddenly broke apart, although no one was injured. The team is due to leave the ice in the first half of next month and should release preliminary results later this year.

The expedition is sponsored by British insurer Catlin.

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on April 18th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

We wrote about this in regard to the earthquakes and follow-up tsunamis, now we learn that we are not the odd-balls we thought we were – others say now that the melting glaciers in Iceland will bring about further volcanic eruptions. These eruptions will be more frequent and stronger. This reminds us also of the prediction for future hurricanes. watch the words of Freysteinn Sigmundsson, a vulcanologist at the University of Iceland.

Ice Cap Thaw May Awaken Icelandic Volcanoes

April 10, 2010, Oslo, by Alister Doyle for Reuters.

 http://planetark.org/wen/57616

A thaw of Iceland’s ice caps in coming decades caused by climate change may trigger more volcanic eruptions by removing a vast weight and freeing magma from deep below ground, scientists said on Friday.

They said there was no sign that the current eruption from below the Eyjafjallajokull glacier that has paralysed flights over northern Europe was linked to global warming. The glacier is too small and light to affect local geology.

“Our work suggests that eventually there will be either somewhat larger eruptions or more frequent eruptions in Iceland in coming decades,” said Freysteinn Sigmundsson, a vulcanologist at the University of Iceland.

“Global warming melts ice and this can influence magmatic systems,” he told Reuters. The end of the Ice Age 10,000 years ago coincided with a surge in volcanic activity in Iceland, apparently because huge ice caps thinned and the land rose.

“We believe the reduction of ice has not been important in triggering this latest eruption,” he said of Eyjafjallajokull. “The eruption is happening under a relatively small ice cap.”

Carolina Pagli, a geophysicist at the University of Leeds in England, said there were risks that climate change could also trigger volcanic eruptions or earthquakes in places such as Mount Erebus in Antarctica, the Aleutian islands of Alaska or Patagonia in South America.

—————–

MAGMA

“The effects would be biggest with ice-capped volcanoes,” she said. “If you remove a load that is big enough you will also have an effect at depths on magma production.”

She and Sigmundsson wrote a 2008 paper in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters about possible links between global warming and Icelandic volcanoes.

That report said that about 10 percent of Iceland’s biggest ice cap, Vatnajokull, has melted since 1890 and the land nearby was rising about 25 millimetres (0.98 inch) a year, bringing shifts in geological stresses.

They estimated that the thaw had led to the formation of 1.4 cubic km (0.3 cubic mile) of magma deep below ground over the past century.

At high pressures such as under an ice cap, they reckon that rocks cannot expand to turn into liquid magma even if they are hot enough. “As the ice melts the rock can melt because the pressure decreases,” she said.

Sigmundsson said that monitoring of the Vatnajokull volcano since 2008 suggested that the 2008 estimate for magma generation was “probably a minimum estimate. It can be somewhat larger.”

He said that melting ice seemed the main way in which climate change, blamed mainly on use of fossil fuels, could have knock-on effects on geology. The U.N. climate panel says that global warming will cause more floods, droughts and rising seas.

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on March 16th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

African Ministers responsible for meteorology will meet in Nairobi, Kenya, to address ways of strengthening weather, climate and water information for decision-making. Recognizing the needs to strengthen the role and contribution of African National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) to Government policies and initiatives for mitigating and adapting to climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in partnership with the African Union, is organizing the First Conference of Ministers Responsible for Meteorology in Africa, from 12 to 16 April 2010, with the support of the Government of Kenya, in Nairobi.
Please find attached the press release “Ministers Responsible for Meteorology in Africa to meet for the first time – Nairobi, Kenya – 12 – 16 April 2010″.
More information: www.wmo.int
———————

from:   CPA <ipa@wmo.int>

date:    March 12, 2010


Subject: Invitation: Announcement of the African Ministerial Conference

Dear All,

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in partnership with the African Union, is organizing the First Conference of Ministers Responsible for Meteorology in Africa, in order to maximise the potential of weather and climate information for societal benefits.

The Conference will be hosted by the Government of Kenya from 12 to 16 April 2010, in Nairobi.

Journalists are cordially invited to a press conference about this event.

Date and Time: Tuesday 16 March 2010 at 12h00 Venue: Palais des Nations, Room III, Geneva, Switzerland.

—-

Speakers:    Mr Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General, WMO

Mrs Khadija Rachida Masri, Permanent Observer, African Union

Mr Philip Richard Owade, Permanent Representative of Kenya

Ms Shree Badoo Chekitan Servansing, Permanent Representative of Mauritius and Coordinator of the African Group

will be represented at the press conference. Mr Jeremiah Lengoasa, Deputy-Secretary General, and Mr Alioune N’Diaye, Director of the Regional Office for Africa, WMO, will also be present.

Journalists not accredited to the United Nations Office at Geneva but who wish to participate in the press conference are kindly requested to contact Ms Catherine Fegli: tel: +41 22 917 23 13; fax: +41 22 917 00 73; e-mail: cfegli@unog.ch, and visit the following link:

www.unog.ch/80256EDD006B9C2E/(httpPages)/70991F6887C73B2280256EE700379C58?Open

For information about the African Ministerial Conference:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/africaconf/index_en.html

For more information please contact the Communications and Public Affairs Office, WMO

Ms Carine Richard-Van Maele, Chief, Tel: +41 (0)22 730 83 15, E-mail: cpa@wmo.int ,

Ms Marie Heuzé, Special Advisor, Tel: + 41 (0)22 730 84 78, E-mail: mheuze@wmo.int

Ms Gaëlle Sévenier, Press Officer, Tel: +41 (0) 22 730 8417, E-mail: gsevenier@wmo.int

Internet website: http://www.wmo.int

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on March 6th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Arctic Shelf Leaking Potent Greenhouse Gas
By Stephen Leahy

UXBRIDGE, Canada, Mar 5, 2010 (IPS) – The frozen cap trapping billions of tonnes of methane under the cold waters of the Arctic Ocean is leaking and venting the powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, new research shows.

It is not known if this may be one of the first indicators of a feedback loop accelerating global warming.

Researchers estimate that eight million tonnes in annual methane emissions are being released from the shallow East Siberian Arctic Shelf, which is equivalent to all the methane released from the world’s oceans, covering 71 percent of the planet.

On a global scale of methane emissions from the land-based sources – animals, rice paddies, rotting vegetation – the newly measured emissions from the Siberian seabed are less than two percent.

“That’s still very significant,” Natalia Shakhova, a researcher at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, told IPS. “Before, it was assumed that this region had zero emissions.”

Methane concentrations measured over the oceans are currently about 0.6 to 0.7 parts per million (ppm), but they are now 1.85 in the Arctic Ocean generally, and between 2.6 and 8.2 ppm in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, an area roughly two million square kilometres in size, said Shakhova.

Shakhova, and her University of Alaska colleague Igor Semiletov, led eight international expeditions to one of the world’s most remote and desolate regions and published their results in the Mar. 5 edition of the journal Science.

Global methane levels have risen each year since 2007 after being constant for a decade, reports Ed Dlugokencky of the Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, which is run by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

“We saw an increase in CH4 (methane) growth rate in 2007 in the Arctic… but it did not increase in 2008,” Dlugokencky, an expert on atmospheric methane told IPS via email.

He suspects Siberia’s subsea emissions are not new but have been underway for some time, and he also says Shakhova’s estimate of eight million tonnes needs to be verified by other means. However, he acknowledges this study represents the first direct measurements ever done in the region and stresses the urgency for more investigation.

In the last few years, researchers have been shocked to see Arctic Ocean “on the boil” in places as gases from deep below come bubbling to the surface. Large parts of the Arctic Ocean floor along coastal areas is actually permafrost that was flooded thousands of years ago after the big melt from the last ice age.

Permafrost is frozen soil and contains very large amounts of carbon and methane. The extremely cold waters of the Arctic and its ice cover kept the subsea permafrost cold enough so it has been melting extremely slowly. Until now.

Surface temperatures over much of the Arctic landscape and the Siberian landscape, particularly in summer, have jumped six to 10 degrees C above normal in recent years. That has lead to a massive increase in the flows of the many rivers that terminate in the Arctic Ocean.

Shakhova and colleagues believe this substantial increase of warmer water into the shallow East Siberian Shelf has accelerated the melting of the subsea permafrost, in effect fracturing the frozen cap and allowing methane to escape into the atmosphere. “Our concern is that the subsea permafrost has been showing signs of destabilisation already,” she said in a release.

“If it further destabilises, the methane emissions may not be teragrammes, it would be significantly larger,” she said. A teragramme is a trillion grammes, or one million tonnes.

Methane – a greenhouse gas approximately 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide – is commonly called methane hydrates when it is frozen in permafrost or under the sea. The total volumes are unknown.

“The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow hydrate deposits might alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to three to four times,” Shakhova said in a release.

“The climatic consequences of this are hard to predict,” she said.

Shakhova’s study is just one of at least a dozen others that clearly show the Arctic region is not only melting but also emitting more carbon and methane.

Permafrost spans 13 million square kilometres of the land in Alaska, Canada, Siberia and parts of Europe. A new Canadian study documented that the southernmost permafrost limit has retreated 130 kilometres over the past 50 years ago in Quebec’s James Bay region.

Another Canadian study released last year showed that the region was getting darker and absorbing more heat in the summer because of a significant shift in plant growth from grasses and lichen to larger shrubs over the past 30 years due to warmer temperatures.

A permafrost “retreat” has been observed over much of the southern fringe of the permafrost zone and could result in emissions a billion tonnes of carbon per year – human emissions are seven to eight billion tonnes – by mid-century, a University of Florida study estimated.

Without major reductions in those human emissions, mainly burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, the top two to three metres of permafrost across the entire Arctic region could thaw by the end of this century, warned a major report, “Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications”, released by the World Wildlife Fund last September.

Should that happen, the volumes of carbon and methane released could be many times higher than what is presently in the atmosphere, driving up the global average temperatures by six, eight, or even 10 degrees C. The consequences are unimaginable.

“The changes we are (currently) seeing are not entirely unexpected, they are just happening far sooner,” said Mark Serreze, senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre in the U.S. state of Colorado and co-author of Arctic Climate Feedbacks report.

If the methane hydrates start to melt or large areas of permafrost “that will be very bad news for humanity”, Serreze told IPS in September.

“The world is a very small place and we have not been good stewards. Climate change is symptom of this poor stewardship,” he said.

“The way we’re going right now, I’m not optimistic that we will avoid some kind of tipping point.”

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 26th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

from:   CPA <ipa@wmo.int>
date    Fri, Feb 26, 2010 at 5:26 AM
subject    High-Level Task Force for Climate Services Starts Work at WMO

The first meeting of the High-Level Taskforce for climate services selected Jan Egeland of Norway and Mahmoud Abu-Zeid of Egypt as co-chairs.  The High Level Taskforce of independent advisers, which the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Michel Jarraud, was requested by a decision of the World Climate Conference-3 to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), is meeting on 25-26 February, at the WMO Headquarters in Geneva.

Please find attached the press release “High-Level Task Force for Climate Services Starts Work at WMO”.

More information: www.wmo.int

Best regards,

Communications and Public Affairs
Tel: + 41 22 730 83 14
Fax: + 41 22 730 80 27

——————————-

Jan Egeland is an excellent choice – we know him from the UN where he had many past involvements and we know for shure that he was one of those that when in Sudan on efforts regarding Darfur, was ready to look at climate change impact on the evolving atrocities.   was the United Nations Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator from June 2003 to December 2006 under UN  Secretary-General Kofi Annan. He traveled extensively, drawing attention to humanitarian emergencies.

In UN fashion – he was balanced out with a representative of the Arab world who has a background in water engineering – so at least there will be a link of climate change and growing water shortage in arid and semi-arid lands. Abu-Zeid is Egyptian Water Minister active on global water problems and has Saudi Arabian support.

http://engineering.ucdavis.edu/pages/about/profiles/abu-zeid.html

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 11th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

 http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-vine/what-th…

What The Snowpocalypse Tells Us About Global Warming.
by Bradford Plumer, February 10, 2010, The New Republic online

Washington D.C.’s getting slammed by record snowfall right now, which means that in addition to unplowed roads and Mad Max-style scenes at Safeway, we also have to suffer through a flurry of Al Gore jokes and Republicans snorting about how this proves global warming is all fake. I guess the prim, boring response is that a single weather event, even an extreme one, doesn’t tell us very much about long-term climate trends. But blah, blah, everyone’s heard that line before.

A more thoughtful reply comes from meteorologist Jeff Masters, who explains how massive snowstorms in the Northeast are, in fact, quite consistent with a steadily warming world:

There are two requirements for a record snow storm:

1) A near-record amount of moisture in the air (or a very slow moving storm).

2) Temperatures cold enough for snow.

It’s not hard at all to get temperatures cold enough for snow in a world experiencing global warming.

According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the globe warmed 0.74°C (1.3°F) over the past 100 years. There will still be colder than average winters in a world that is experiencing warming, with plenty of opportunities for snow.

The more difficult ingredient for producing a record snowstorm is the requirement of near-record levels of moisture.

Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events–the ones most likely to cause flash flooding–will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air.

According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. This extra moisture in the air will tend to produce heavier snowstorms, assuming it is cold enough to snow. Groisman et al. (2004) found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events in the U.S. over the past 100 years, though mainly in spring and summer. However, the authors did find a significant increase in winter heavy precipitation events have occurred in the Northeast U.S.

This was echoed by Changnon et al. (2006), who found, “The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901-2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901-2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity.”

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting the U.S. Global Change Research Program actually predicted stronger winter storms for the Northeast, in its 2009 report on potential climate-change impacts for the United States:

Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes (Kunkel et al., 2008). The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights.”

Now, that doesn’t mean we can definitely say that global warming caused this snow monstrosity—again, it’s too hard to attribute any single weather event to long-term climate shifts. (For instance, El Niño may be playing a bigger role right now in feeding these storms.) At most, we can say that a warming climate will create the conditions that make fierce winter storms in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic more likely. Or at least it will for awhile: If the planet keeps heating up, then at some point freezing conditions in the Northeast will become very rare, at which point snowstorms will, too But we’re not at that point—the Earth hasn’t warmed that much yet.

On the other hand, climate models do predict that snowstorms in the southernmost parts of the United States should become much rarer in the coming decades: There’s plenty of moisture down south, but freezing temperatures are likely to decrease and the jet stream is expected to shift northward. So if those regions start seeing a sustained uptick in snowfall, then something’s gone awry in climate predictions. But the blizzard in the Northeast, while miserable and incredibly disruptive, doesn’t appear whack with long-term forecasts. (That’s not exactly cheerful news for those of us who have to live here.)

—————
Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

Last Updated: 1:02 PM GMT on February 11, 2010.
Heavy snowfall in a warming world.

Posted by: JeffMasters on February 08, 2010

A major new winter storm is headed east over the U.S. today, and threatens to dump a foot or more of snow on Philadelphia, New York City, and surrounding regions Tuesday and Wednesday. Philadelphia is still digging out from its second top-ten snowstorm of recorded history to hit the city this winter, and the streets are going to begin looking like canyons if this week’s snowstorm adds a significant amount of snow to the incredible 28.5″ that fell during “Snowmageddon” last Friday and Saturday. Philadelphia has had two snowstorms exceeding 23″ this winter. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the return period for a 22+ inch snow storm is once every 100 years–and we’ve had two 100-year snow storms in Philadelphia this winter. It is true that if the winter pattern of jet stream location, sea surface temperatures, etc, are suitable for a 100-year storm to form, that will increase the chances for a second such storm to occur that same year, and thus the odds have having two 100-year storms the same year are not 1 in 10,000. Still, the two huge snowstorms this winter in the Mid-Atlantic are definitely a very rare event one should see only once every few hundred years, and is something that has not occurred since modern records began in 1870. The situation is similar for Baltimore and Washington D.C. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the expected return period in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region for snowstorms with more than 16 inches of snow is about once every 25 years. This one-two punch of two major Nor’easters in one winter with 16+ inches of snow is unprecedented in the historical record for the region, which goes back to the late 1800s.

Top 9 snowstorms on record for Philadelphia:

1. 30.7″, Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5″, Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
3. 23.2″, Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
4. 21.3″, Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0″, Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4″, Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9″, Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7″, Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.1″, Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore:

1. 28.2″, Feb 15-18, 2003
2. 26.5″, Jan 27-29, 1922
3. 24.8″, Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
4. 22.8″, Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 22.5″, Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 22.0″, Mar 29-30, 1942
7. 21.4″, Feb 11-14, 1899
8. 21.0″, Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 20.0″, Feb 18-19, 1979
10. 16.0″, Mar 15-18, 1892

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:

1. 28.0″, Jan 27-28, 1922
2. 20.5″, Feb 11-13, 1899
3. 18.7″, Feb 18-19, 1979
4. 17.8″ Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
5. 17.1″, Jan 6-8, 1996
6. 16.7″, Feb 15-18, 2003
7. 16.6″, Feb 11-12, 1983
8. 16.4″, Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 14.4″, Feb 15-16, 1958
10. 14.4″, Feb 7, 1936

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 7th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Arctic Melt To Cost Up To $24 Trillion By 2050: Report

Date: 08-Feb-10
Author: Timothy Gardner, Reuthers

WASHINGTON – Arctic ice melting could cost global agriculture, real estate and insurance anywhere from $2.4 trillion to $24 trillion by 2050 in damage from rising sea levels, floods and heat waves, according to a report released on Friday.

“Everybody around the world is going to bear these costs,” said Eban Goodstein, a resource economist at Bard College in New York state who co-authored the report, called “Arctic Treasure, Global Assets Melting Away.”

He said the report, reviewed by more than a dozen scientists and economists and funded by the Pew Environment Group, an arm of the Pew Charitable Trusts, provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of the loss of one of the world’s great weather makers.

“The Arctic is the planet’s air conditioner and it’s starting to break down,” he said.

The loss of Arctic Sea ice and snow cover is already costing the world about $61 billion to $371 billion annually from costs associated with heat waves, flooding and other factors, the report said.

The losses could grow as a warmer Arctic unlocks vast stores of methane in the permafrost. The gas has about 21 times the global warming impact of carbon dioxide.

Melting of Arctic sea ice is already triggering a feedback of more warming as dark water revealed by the receding ice absorbs more of the sun’s energy, he said. That could lead to more melting of glaciers on land and raise global sea levels.

While much of Europe and the United States has suffered heavy snowstorms and unusually low temperatures this winter, evidence has built that the Arctic is at risk from warming.

Greenhouse gases generated by tailpipes and smokestacks have pushed Arctic temperatures in the last decade to the highest levels in at least 2,000 years, reversing a natural cooling trend, an international team of researchers reported in the journal Science in September.

Arctic emissions of methane have jumped 30 percent in recent years, scientists said last month.

Thin ice over the Arctic Sea this winter could mean a powerful ice-melt next summer, a top U.S. climate scientist said this week.

And early findings from a major research project in Canada involving more than 370 scientists from 27 countries showed on Friday that climate change is transforming the Arctic environment faster than expected and accelerating the disappearance of sea ice.

Goodstein’s study did not look at worst-case scenarios Arctic melting could have, such as warmer temperatures that trigger massive releases of crystallized methane formations in Arctic soils and ocean beds known as methane hydrates. It also did not look at sea ice erosion troubling people in the Arctic.

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 6th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Shackleton’s Whiskey Found Buried Near South Pole.

Lauren Frayer
Contributor to aol.com
(Feb. 6, 2010) — It’s probably the most sought-after scotch in history – crates of whiskey buried in Antarctica by the famed explorer Ernest Shackleton a century ago. He abandoned them on a failed attempt to reach the South Pole in 1909, and they’ve been on ice – literally – ever since.

Researchers from New Zealand found the crates while restoring a hut Shackleton built and used during the expedition. He and his team were forced to cut short the trip and abandon supplies, including their booze, to sail away before winter ice trapped them there.

The New Zealand team first spotted two crates underneath the hut’s floorboards in 2006, but they were too deeply embedded in ice to be salvaged. Researchers returned to the site this past week, and finally extracted the crates after drilling into the ice around them. The surprise was that there were three more crates than expected – one more of whiskey and two of brandy.

The second trip was backed by the same Scottish company that distilled Shackleton’s whiskey, Mackinlay’s Rare Old Scotch. It could be the longest booze run in history. The Whyte and Mackay distillery hopes to replicate the whiskey, which hasn’t been made in a lifetime after the original recipe was lost.

“Given the original recipe no longer exists, this may open a door into history,” the company’s master blender, Richard Paterson, said in a release posted on the company’s Web site. He called the find “a gift from the heavens” for whiskey lovers.

“If the contents can be confirmed, safely extracted and analyzed, the original blend may be able to be replicated,” Paterson said.

Experts will try to extract the historic brew delicately. Some of the crates have cracked and ice has formed inside. Icebergs surrounding the crates smelled of whiskey, and there may have been leakage, according to Al Fastier, a restoration expert with the New Zealand Antarctic Heritage Trust who made the find.

He told the BBC he heard the slosh of liquid inside the crates when they were moved, and is confident that much of the liquor is still inside.

Shackleton’s expedition ran short of supplies on a long trek to the South Pole that began in 1907. He had to turn back about 100 miles from the pole in 1909. The team had to move quickly to escape as winter ice began to form, so they were forced to abandon all but essential equipment and supplies – including their whiskey. No lives were lost.

A Norwegian explorer, Roald Amundsen, was first to reach the South Pole two years later, in 1911.

As for what the future holds for Shackleton’s whiskey, there are international treaties preventing the removal of artifacts from Antarctica, but Paterson wrote on his blog that he hopes to get his hands on at least a sample of the whiskey, if not a couple bottles.

“What you all want to know is: How will it taste?” Paterson wrote. “To which the answer is: Cold.”

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on January 31st, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

The International Conference “Deltas in Times of Climate Change.”

from: Ottelien van Steenis  – Call for abstracts for The International Conference ‘Deltas in Times of Climate Change’          September 29 – October 1, 2010, Rotterdam, the Netherlands

The two official Dutch research programmes on climate change and spatial planning (Climate changes Spatial Planning and Knowledge for Climate), the City of Rotterdam and the C40 (a group of the world’s largest cities committed to tackling climate change) invite scientists, politicians, policy-makers and practitioners to share their knowledge and experience in a major international conference on climate adaptation.

The conference pursues three main goals:
1. exchanging up-to-date top science on climate change and delta planning
2. strengthening international cooperation between deltas and delta cities
3. exploring and strengthening the links between science, policy and practitioners

Authors who wish to present a paper or poster related to the scientific programme are invited to submit an abstract.

The abstracts have to be submitted before 15 February 2010, and will be expected to fit within one of the themes:
1.     Regional climate, sea level rise, storm surges, river run-off and coastal flooding
2.     Fresh water availability under sea level rise and climate change
3.     Climate change and estuarine ecosystems
4.     Climate change and climate proofing in urban areas
5.     Competing claims and land use in deltas under climate change
6.     Governance and economics of climate adaptation
7.     Decision support instruments for climate adaptation policy
8.     Climate and health in delta areas
9.     Managing extreme weather risks

Dates to be remembered:
February 15     deadline for submission of abstract
February    registration open (fee: approximately € 350)
April   notification of abstract/poster selection
August 1    submission of draft full paper

During the conference, the Delta Alliance, Connecting Delta Cities and the C40 will be working to develop worldwide cooperation between deltas and delta cities. The Delta Alliance is an international alliance promoting effective cooperation among deltas in their efforts to manage existing and new challenges. The Connecting Delta Cities is an international network that unites delta cities that strive to make their cities climate proof.

More information is available at the  conference website and the brochure of the conference.

The Steering Committee – Pier Vellinga and Pavel Kabat
________________________________________
Programme Office Climate changes Spatial Planning / Programme Office Knowledge for Climate
p/a Wageningen UR, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA  Wageningen, the Netherlands
T +31 30 48 6540
M +31 2120 2447
E  o.van.steenis at programmabureauklimaat….
www.climatedeltaconference.org

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on January 28th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

If It’s That Warm, How Come It’s So Darned Cold?
An Essay on Regional Cold Anomalies – within Near Record Global Temperature.

James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Ken Lo

Overview. Public skepticism about global warming was reinforced by the extreme cold
of December 2009 in the contiguous 48 United States and in much of Eurasia. The summer of
2009 was also unusually cool in the United States. But when a cold spell hits, we need to ask:

  • Cold compared to what. Our memory of the past few winters? Winters of our childhood? Winters earlier in the 20th century?
  • Cold where and for how long? Regional cold snaps are expected even with large global warming. Weather fluctuations can be 10, 20 or 30 degrees, much larger than average global warming.
  • The reality of seasons. As the plot of Earth we live on turns away from the sun, in winter or at night, it cools off. That’s true even with global warming, albeit not quite so much.

Before addressing these matters, we note that scientists reporting global warming have come
under attack for a supposed conspiracy to manufacture evidence of global warming. Perhaps because
some members of the public accept these charges as reality, vicious personal messages are sent to the
principal scientists almost daily.

The spiral into an almost surrealistic situation with ad hominem attacks on scientists may have
originated in part with vested interests who do not want society to address climate change. But there is
more than that – including honest, wishful thinking that climate change is not really happening. But
wishing does not alter facts.

The scientific method practically defines integrity. All scientists make honest mistakes, but the scientific method is designed to correct them.

[Albert Einstein: “The right to search for truth implies also a duty; one must not conceal any part of what one has recognized to be true.” Richard Feynman: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.”]

The skeptical nature of the scientific method causes conclusions to be reexamined as new data appears.
Cases of deliberate fudging of data, of scientific fraud, are so rare that these infrequent episodes live in
infamy for decades and even centuries.

We know of no cases of fraud in analyses of global temperature measurements. Despite
unfounded accusations, we believe that our best approach is simply to continue to report our scientific
results as clearly as possible. Most of the public continue to respect scientists for what they do and how
they do it. We presume that most of the public can separate science from political commentary.
Our data show that 2009 was tied for the second warmest year in the 130 years of near?global
instrumental measurements – and the Southern Hemisphere had its warmest year in that entire period.
Before discussing these data, and their reconciliation with regional cold anomalies, we must consider
the time frame of comparison.

If we look back a century, we find cold anomalies that dwarf current ones. Figure 1 shows
photos of people walking on Niagara Falls in 1911. Such an extreme cold snap is unimaginable today.
About a decade earlier, in February 1899, temperature fell to ?2°F in Tallahassee, Florida, ?9°F in Atlanta,
Georgia ?30°F in Erasmus, Tennessee, ?47°F in Camp Clark, Nebraska, and ?61°F in Fort Logan, Montana.
The Mississippi River froze all the way to New Orleans, discharging ice into the Gulf of Mexico.

As we will show, climate is changing, especially during the past 30 years. The changes are
perceptible, even though average temperature change is smaller than weather fluctuations. The answer
to the simple question: “How come it’s so damned cold” turns out to be simple: “Because it’s winter.”

Screenshot_5

Screenshot_6

3
GISS Global Temperature Analysis
Background. Global temperature change can be defined more accurately than global
temperature. The reason is simple: temperature varies strongly from one place to another,
depending on surface properties, the slope of the ground, etc. Temperature change is a
smoother field, so it can be defined with measurements at a smaller number of locations.
Temperature change is defined relative to some base period. The NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis uses 1951-1980 as the base period. This was the base
period being used to define “climatology”, average weather, in the 1980s when GISS scientists
began making climate simulations for comparison with observations. It seems best to keep this
base period fixed, because it has been used in many publications. Also many of today’s adults
grew up during 1951-1980, so it provides an appropriate period for analysis of how climate has
changed in human lifetimes. Finally, extensive Antarctic measurements did not begin until the
1950s, so use of an earlier base period would produce a large gap in the Southern Hemisphere.
The GISS temperature analysis is updated each month upon electronic receipt of data
from three sources: (1) weather data for several thousand meteorological stations, (2) satellite
observations of sea surface temperature, and (3) Antarctic research station measurements.

These three data sets are the input for a program that produces a global map of temperature
anomalies relative to the mean for that month during the period of climatology, 1951-1980.
The analysis method has been described fully in a series of refereed papers (Hansen et
al., 1987, 1999, 2001, 2006). Successive papers updated the data and in some cases made
minor improvements to the analysis. A central concept of the analysis is that temperature
anomalies present a smoother geographical field than temperature itself. The distance over
which temperature anomalies are highly correlated is of the order of 1000 kilometers at middle
and high latitudes, as we illustrated in our 1987 paper. Correlation distances, for monthly
temperature anomalies, are shorter at low latitudes, because of the scales of atmospheric
dynamics – but sampling studies show that the coverage of low latitude measurements is not a
major factor affecting accuracy of long?term global temperature trends.

Although the three input data streams that we use are publicly available from the
organizations that produce them, we began preserving the complete input data sets each

month in April 2008. These data sets, which cover the full period of our analysis, 1880?present,
are available to parties interested in performing their own analysis or checking our analysis.
The computer program used in our analysis can be downloaded from the GISS web site.
Results. The past year, 2009, tied as the second warmest year in the 130 years of global
instrumental temperature records (Figure 2a), in the GISS surface temperature analysis. The
Southern Hemisphere set a record as the warmest year for that half of the world (Figure 2b).
Global mean temperature was 0.57°C (1.0°F) warmer than the climatologic average (the
mean for the 1951-1980 base period). Southern Hemisphere mean temperature was 0.49°C
(0.88°F) warmer than the mean for the base period.
The global record warm year was 2005, for the period with near-global instrumental
measurements (since the late 1800s). Sometimes it is asserted that 1998 was the warmest
year. The origin of this confusion is discussed below.

There is a high degree of interannual (year-to-year) and decadal variability in both global
and hemispheric temperatures. Underlying this variability, however, is a long?term warming
trend that has become strong and persistent over the past three decades.

The long-term trends are more apparent when temperature is averaged over several
years. The 60-month (5-year) and 132 month (11-year) running mean temperatures are shown
in Figure 3 for the globe and the hemispheres. The 5-year mean is sufficient to reduce the
effect of the El Nino – La Nina cycles of tropical climate. The 11-year mean minimizes the effect
of solar variability – the brightness of the sun varies by a measurable amount over the sunspot
cycle, which is typically of 10-12 year duration.

There is a contradiction between the observed continued warming trend and popular
perceptions about climate trends. Frequent statements include: “There has been global cooling
over the past decade.” “Global warming stopped in 1998.” “1998 is the warmest year in the
record.” Such statements have been repeated so often that most of the public seems to accept
them as being true. However, based on our data, such statements are not correct.

The origin of this contradiction probably lies in part in differences between the GISS and
HadCRUT temperature analyses (HadCRUT is the joint Hadley Centre, University of East Anglia
Climatic Research Unit temperature analysis). Indeed, HadCRUT finds 1998 to be the warmest
year in their record. In addition, popular belief that the world is cooling is reinforced by cold
weather anomalies in the United States in the summer of 2009 and cold anomalies in much of
the Northern Hemisphere in December 2009.

Screenshot_7

Comparison of GISS and HadCRUT results. Figure 4 shows maps of GISS and HadCRUT
1998 and 2005 temperature anomalies relative to base period 1961-1990 (the base period used
by HadCRUT). The temperature anomalies are at a 5 degree-by-5 degree (latitude?longitude)
resolution for the GISS data to match that in the HadCRUT analysis. In the lower two maps we
display the GISS data masked to the same area and resolution as the HadCRUT analysis.

The “masked” GISS data let us quantify the extent to which the difference between the
GISS and HadCRUT analyses is due to the data interpolation and extrapolation that occurs in the
GISS analysis. The GISS analysis assigns a temperature anomaly to many gridboxes that do not
contain measurement data, specifically all gridboxes located within 1200 km of one or more
stations that do have defined temperature anomalies.

The rationale for this aspect of the GISS analysis is based on the fact that temperature
anomaly patterns tend to be large scale. For example, if it is an unusually cold winter in New
York, it is probably unusually cold in Philadelphia too. This fact suggests that it may be better to
assign a temperature anomaly based on the nearest stations for a gridbox that contains no
observing stations, rather than excluding that gridbox from the global analysis. Tests of this
assumption are described in our papers referenced below.

Screenshot_8

Figure 5 shows time series of global temperature for the GISS and HadCRUT analyses, as
well as for the GISS analysis masked to the HadCRUT data region. This figure reveals that the
differences that have developed between the GISS and HadCRUT global temperatures during
the past few decades are due primarily to the extension of the GISS analysis into regions that
are excluded from the HadCRUT analysis. The GISS and HadCRUT results are similar during this
period, when the analyses are limited to exactly the same area. The GISS analysis also finds
1998 as the warmest year, if analysis is limited to the masked area.

The question then becomes: how valid are the extrapolations and interpolations in the
GISS analysis? If the temperature anomaly scale is adjusted such that the global mean anomaly
is zero, the regions warmer and cooler than average have realistic?looking meteorological
patterns, providing qualitative support for the data extensions. However, we would like a
quantitative measure of the uncertainty in our estimate of the global temperature anomaly
caused by the fact that the spatial distribution of measurements is incomplete. One way to
estimate that uncertainty, or possible error, can be obtained via use of the complete time series
of global surface temperature data generated by a global climate model that has been
demonstrated to have realistic spatial and temporal variability of surface temperature. We can
sample this data set at only the locations where measurement stations exist, use this sub?
sample of data to estimate global temperature change with the GISS analysis method, and
compare the result with the “perfect” knowledge of global temperature provided by the data at
all gridpoints.

Screenshot_9

Table 1 shows the derived error due to incomplete coverage of stations. As expected,
the error was larger at early dates when station coverage was poorer. Also the error is much
larger when data are available only from meteorological stations, without ship or satellite
measurements for ocean areas. In recent decades the 2-sigma uncertainty (95 percent
confidence of being within that range, ~2-3 percent chance of being outside that range in a
specific direction) has been about 0.05°C. The incomplete coverage of stations is the primary
cause of uncertainty in comparing nearby years, for which the effect of more systematic errors
such as urban warming is small.

Additional sources of error become important when comparing temperature anomalies
separated by longer periods. The most well-known source of long-term error is “urban
warming”, human-made local warming caused by energy use and alterations of the natural
environment. Various other errors affecting the estimates of long-term temperature change
are described comprehensively in a large number of papers by Tom Karl and his associates at
the NOAA National Climate Data Center. The GISS temperature analysis corrects for urban
effects by adjusting the long-term trends of urban stations to be consistent with the trends at
nearby rural stations, with urban locations identified either by population or satellite?observed
night lights. In a paper in preparation we demonstrate that the population and night light
approaches yield similar results on global average. The additional error caused by factors other
than incomplete spatial coverage is estimated to be of the order of 0.1°C on time scales of
several decades to a century, this estimate necessarily being partly subjective. The estimated
total uncertainty in global mean temperature anomaly with land and ocean data included thus
is similar to the error estimate in the first line of Table 1, i.e., the error due to limited spatial
coverage when only meteorological stations are included.

Now let’s consider whether we can specify a rank among the recent global annual
temperatures, i.e., which year is warmest, second warmest, etc. Figure 2a shows 2009 as the
second warmest year, but it is so close to 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2007 that we must
declare these years as being in a virtual tie as the second warmest year. The maximum
difference among these in the GISS analysis is ~0.03°C (2009 being the warmest among those
years and 2006 the coolest). This range is approximately equal to our 1?sigma uncertainty of
~0.025°C, which is the reason for stating that these five years are tied for second warmest.

The year 2005 is 0.061°C warmer than 1998 in our analysis. So how certain are we that
2005 was warmer than 1998? Given the standard deviation of ~0.025°C for the estimated
error, we can estimate the probability that 1998 was warmer than 2005 as follows. The chance
that 1998 is 0.025°C warmer than our estimated value is about (1 – 0.68)/2 = 0.16. The chance
that 2005 is 0.025°C cooler than our estimate is also 0.16. The probability of both of these is
~0.03 (3 percent). Integrating over the tail of the distribution and accounting for the 2005-1998
temperature difference being 0.061°C alters the estimate in opposite directions. For the
moment let us just say that the chance that 1998 is warmer than 2005, given our temperature
analysis, is no more than about 10 percent. Therefore, we can say with a reasonable degree of
confidence that 2005 is the warmest year in the period of instrumental data.

Screenshot_10

Comparison of GISS and NOAA global temperature change. NOAA recently announced
 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=gl… that 2009 was the fifth warmest year in their
analysis. At face value this result may seem to disagree with the GISS conclusion that 2009 tied
with several other years for the second warmest year. So we compare the GISS and NOAA
results in Figure 6, in which, following the NOAA convention, we have defined the baseline as
the mean temperature for the past century, 1901?2000.

Figure 6 reveals that the NOAA and GISS analyses are in good agreement, within the
estimated uncertainties. Both analyses find 2005 to be the warmest year. The discrepancy in
ranking of individual years is due in part to the GISS preference to describe as statistical ties
those years with global temperatures differing by a few hundredths of a degree or less.
Although quantitative analysis of the reasons for differences between these two analyses may
be warranted, it is beyond the scope of this essay.

Global cooling in the past decade?   That question can be addressed with a much higher
degree of confidence than the ranking of individual years. The reason is that error due to
incomplete spatial coverage of data becomes smaller for data averaged over several years. The
2?sigma error in the 5-year running-mean temperature anomaly shown in Figure 3, is about a
factor of two smaller than the annual mean uncertainty, thus only 0.02?0.03°C. Given that the
change of 5-year-mean global temperature anomaly is almost 0.2°C over the past decade, we
can conclude that the world has become warmer over the past decade, not cooler.

Why are some people so readily convinced of a false conclusion, that the world is really
experiencing a cooling trend? That misimpression may have a lot to do with regional short?term
temperature fluctuations, which are an order of magnitude larger than global average annual
anomalies. Yet many lay people do understand the distinction between regional short?term
anomalies and global trends. For example, here is comment posted by “frogbandit” at 8:38
p.m. 1/6/2010 on City Bright blog  http://blog.seattlepi.com/robertbrown/ar…):

Screenshot_11

“I wonder about the people who use cold weather to say that the globe is cooling. It forgets that
global warming has a global component and that its a trend, not an everyday thing. I hear people
down in the lower 48 say its really cold this winter. That ain’t true so far up here in Alaska.
Bethel, Alaska, had a brown Christmas. Here in Anchorage, the temperature today is 31. I can’t
say based on the fact Anchorage and Bethel are warm so far this winter that we have global
warming. That would be a really dumb argument to think my weather pattern is being
experienced even in the rest of the United States, much less globally.”

What frogbandit is saying is illustrated by the global map of temperature anomalies in
December 2009 (Figure 7a). There were strong negative temperature anomalies at middle latitudes in
the Northern Hemisphere, as great as ?8°C in Siberia, averaged over the month. But the temperature
anomaly in the Arctic was as great as +7°C. The cold December perhaps reaffirmed an impression
gained by Americans from the unusually cool 2009 summer. There was a large region in the United
States and Canada in June?July?August with a negative temperature anomaly greater than 1°C, the
largest negative anomaly on the planet.

Screenshot_12

Screenshot_13

Regional anomalies. How do these large regional temperature anomalies stack up
against an expectation of, and the reality of, global warming? How unusual are these regional
negative fluctuations? Do they have any relationship to global warming? Do they contradict
global warming?

It is obvious that in December 2009 there was an unusual exchange of polar and mid?
latitude air in the Northern Hemisphere. Arctic air rushed into both North America and Eurasia,
and, of course, it was replaced in the polar region by air from middle latitudes.

The degree to which Arctic air penetrates into middle latitudes is related to the Arctic
Oscillation (AO) index, which is defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns and is plotted
in Figure 8. When the AO index is positive surface pressure is low in the polar region. This
helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus
keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region. When the AO index is negative there tends to
be high pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar
air into middle latitudes.

Figure 8 shows that December 2009 was the most extreme negative Arctic Oscillation
since the 1970s. Although there were ten cases between the early 1960s and mid 1980s with
an AO index more extreme than ?2.5, there were no such extreme cases since then until
December 2009. It is no wonder that the public became accustomed to the absence of extreme
blasts of cold air.

Figure 9 shows the AO index with greater temporal resolution for two 5?year periods. It
is obvious that there is a high degree of correlation of the AO index with temperature in the
United States, with any possible lag between index and temperature anomaly less than the

Screenshot_14

monthly temporal resolution. Large negative anomalies, when they occur, are usually in a
winter month. Note that the January 1977 temperature anomaly, mainly located in the Eastern
United States, was much stronger than the December 2009 anomaly.

The AO index is not so much an explanation for climate anomaly patterns as it is a
simple statement of the situation. However, John (Mike) Wallace and colleagues have been
able to use the AO description to aid consideration of how the patterns may change as
greenhouse gases increase. A number of papers, by Wallace, David Thompson (e.g., Thompson
and Wallace, 2000), and others, as well as by Drew Shindell and others at GISS (Shindell et al.,
2001), have pointed out that increasing carbon dioxide causes the stratosphere to cool, in turn
causing on average a stronger jet stream and thus a tendency for a more positive Arctic
Oscillation. Overall, Figure 8 shows a weak tendency in the expected sense.

Figure 10 shows the AO index for Dec?Jan?Feb and Jun?Jul?Aug. Variability is much
greater in the winter. There is weak correlation of the AO index and U.S. temperature in the
winter, but no significant correlation in the summer. An unusually large negative AO was
associated with the 2009 cool summer in the United States. Loss of Arctic summer sea ice is
likely to affect Northern Hemisphere continental temperatures, but sea ice loss so far is too
small and for too few years to allow empirical assessment.

We conclude that December 2009 was a highly anomalous month. High pressure in the
polar region can be described as the “cause” of the extreme December weather. But there is
no apparent basis for expecting frequent repeat occurrences of December 2009 conditions. On
the contrary – the weak winter trend is toward a more positive AO, as expected with increasing
greenhouse gases. But month?to?month fluctuations of the AO are much larger than its long
term trend, so high winter variability including cold snaps will surely continue.

Screenshot_15

However, other factors than the AO, including pervasive global warming due to
increasing greenhouse gases, affect the climate trends. Figure 10 shows that in the U.S. only
one of the past 10 winters and two of the past 10 summers were cooler than the 1951?1980
climatology. Let’s look at global maps of recent regional temperature anomalies and
temperature trends to help assess whether the U.S. tendency is an expected result due to
global warming. Figure 11 shows seasonal temperature anomalies for the past year and Figure
12 shows seasonal temperature change since 1950 based on local linear trends. The
temperature scales are identical in Figures 11 and 12.

The outstanding characteristic in comparing these two figures is that the magnitude of
the 60 year change is similar to the magnitude of seasonal anomalies. What this tells us is that
the climate “dice” are already strongly loaded. The change in the probability that the seasonal
mean temperature at any given location will fall in the category that was defined as unusually
warm during the period of climatology (1951-1980) has increased from 30 percent during the
period of climatology to about 60 percent today, as we illustrate in an upcoming publication.

The magnitude of monthly temperature anomalies is typically 1.5 to 2 times greater
than the magnitude of seasonal anomalies. So it is not yet quite as easy to see global warming
if one’s figure of merit is monthly mean temperature. Daily temperature change due to
weather fluctuations is even much larger than global mean warming. Yet it is already possible
to notice the effect by comparing the frequency of days with record warm temperature to days
with record cold temperature – days with record high temperature now exceed days with
record cold by about a two to one ratio (Meehl et al., 2009).

Screenshot_16
Summary
The bottom line is this: the Earth has been in a period of rapid global warming for the
past three decades. The assertion that the planet has entered a period of cooling in the past
decade is without foundation. On the contrary, we find no significant deviation from the
warming trend of the past three decades.
Weather fluctuations exceed the magnitude of average global warming over the past
half century. However, the perceptive person should be able to notice that climate is warming
on decadal time scales. The global temperature trend over the past few decades has been
strong enough that there is a noticeable “loading” of the climate dice that define the
probability of unusually warm or cool seasons.

Acknowledgements. The Niagara Falls photos belong to Moisha Blechman. John Hiddema and
Richard Brenne, respectively, suggested the need for the bulleted items and a response to widespread
accusations of “hoax” in an Overview. The need for an overview was also suggested by participants on
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