The launch of the UN Decade for Deserts and the Fight against Desertification (2010-2020).

BIDR Homepage | Albert Katz International School of Desert Studies | Drylands, Deserts and Desertification 2010

Drylands, Deserts and Desertification:The Route to Restoration.

The Third International Conference on Drylands, Deserts and Desertification: The Route to Restoration November 8-11, 2010 Sede Boqer Campus, Israel www.desertification.bgu.ac.il

Weather Maps

Winds & Weather

El Nino and La Nina. What are El Nino and La Nina? El Nino – (El Nee-nyo) is the warming of water in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina – (Lah Nee-Nyah) is the cooling of water in the Pacific Ocean.

El Nino Weather	La Nina Weather
Rain and flooding along the Pacific coast Warm water disrupts food chain of fish, birds, and sea mammals Tornadoes and thunderstorms in southern US Fewer than normal hurricanes in the Atlantic	Snow and rain on the west coast Unusually cold weather in Alaska Unusually warm weather in the rest of the USA Drought in the southwest Higher than normal number of hurricanes in the Atlantic

Satellite Image of El Nino

• El Nino was first discovered hundreds of years ago by fishermen off the coast of Peru.
• El Nino means “Little Boy” and was named after the Christ child, because it usually starts around Christmas.
• El Nino is officially called ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation.
• La Nina means “Little Girl.” It is also called El Viejo, which means “old man,” or an ENSO cold event.
• La Nina occurs roughly half as often as El Nino
• El Nino and La Nina are the most powerful phenomenon on the earth and alter the climate across more than half the planet.
• El Nino may be caused by underwater volcanoes in the Pacific.

 http://library.thinkquest.org/5818/elnin…

================================

THE LATEST NEWS:

El Niño  Has Ended. Possibility of La Niña Watched Closely. —-  WMO-892

Geneva, 6 July 2010 (WMO) – Following the rapid dissipation of El Niño in early May 2010, cool-neutral to weak La Niña conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific. These conditions are more likely than not to strengthen into a basin-wide La Niña over the coming months, according to the El Niño/La Niña Update issued today by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

La Niña is characterized by unusually cool ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It is the opposite condition of El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Both events can disrupt the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation, and have widespread impacts on climate in many parts of the world.

By mid-June, the sea-surface temperatures had decreased to approximately 0.5 degrees Celsius below normal over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, near the borderline of La Niña conditions. Further, below average sea temperatures exist beneath the surface of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.  Forecast models continue to predict further decreases in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature. In particular, most dynamical models strongly favour further La Niña development.

While it is likely that La Niña conditions will further develop in the next several months, the timing and magnitude of such an event in 2010 are as yet uncertain, with no indications at this time of a particularly strong event in terms of sea-surface temperatures.

WMO prepares El Niño/La Niña Updates in collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, by consulting climate prediction centres and experts around the world and facilitating the development of a consensus. WMO Members will continue to carefully monitor the situation in the tropical Pacific. The unusual climate patterns and extremes that occur in association with La Niña conditions also occur independently of La Niña, and therefore individual users of climate information should seek detailed interpretation for their locations and sectors. Over the coming months, the climate forecasting community will provide detailed interpretations of regional climate conditions through the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.

For more information:

El Niño/La Niña Update, full report:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

WMO is the United Nations’ authoritative voice on weather, climate and water.

For more information please contact:

Ms Carine Richard-Van Maele, Chief, Communications and Public Affairs, WMO.  Tel: +41 (0) 22 730 8315, Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 8027.  E-mail: cvanmaele@wmo.int

Web site: http://www.wmo.int

ENERGY
The Sun Lights Up the Night in Haiti.
By Peter Costantini, IPS

ENERSA workers making photovoltaic cells Credit:Courtesy of Richard J. Komp

PORT-AU-PRINCE, May 18, 2010 (Tierramérica) – There are shortages of lots of things in Haiti: clean water, arable land, trees, living-wage jobs, housing, schools, fuel, reliable sources of electricity and Internet access. But one thing Haiti has in abundance is sunny days.

The sun beats down relentlessly on Port-au-Prince: on the tin and plastic roofs of the shacks in the neighborhood of Cité Soleil (not without reason named “Sun City”) and on the red tiles of the mansions in the hills in the suburb of Pétionville.

Even when clouds roll in from the Caribbean, the sun heats the water droplets and turns Haiti into an enormous sauna.

Haiti’s solar potential is an estimated six sun-hours in the dry season, about the same as that of Phoenix, Arizona, the sunniest U.S. city. In the rainy season it’s not much less.

For the poorest country of the Americas, one with no oil, a crippling dependency on imports, and a landscape denuded in part by charcoal production, harnessing an abundant and free resource to generate power would seem a no-brainer.

And no doubt this idea has occurred to many people. But it took Jean Ronel Noël and Alex Georges to turn the obvious into reality. Starting six years ago, after graduating in engineering and business administration, respectively, from Canadian universities, Noël and Georges put their heads together to find ways to bring jobs to Haiti.

Thus was born Energies Renouvelables S.A. (Renewable Energies, Inc.) – ENERSA – the first Haitian company to produce photovoltaic modules and solar-powered streetlights.

The idea behind ENERSA originated with a friend they had in common. His mental “light bulb” turned on while standing with Noël under a broken streetlamp.

In addition to the benefits of clean energy, the two Haitian entrepreneurs hoped to employ and transfer skills to young people in a country where the jobless rate is estimated at 70 to 80 percent, and where, for those lucky enough to have a job, the minimum wage was raised last year from 1.75 to 5.50 dollars per day.

They were also doing their part to reverse the brain drain that has long plagued their country. “We don’t just make solar equipment here,” Noël told Tierramérica. “We make citizens. People have to feel they have a future in Haiti.”

The firm began as a research and development effort in a business incubator that provided a low-rent space for three years and guidance in how to run a business in Haiti. This support came from the faith-based non-governmental organisation Haitian Partners for Christian Development, located in Varreux, an industrial area of Port-au-Prince.

Despite the political upheavals in 2005 and 2006 that forced them to close temporarily, in September 2009 they were able to move out on their own to their current location. The factory is a modern concrete-block warehouse with a steel frame and 930 square metres of floor space, located in the capital’s outskirts.

The business, which reported just 40,000 dollars in sales in 2007, is projected to see sales totaling 2 million dollars for 2010. ENERSA sells to the government, NGOs and the private sector, but so far only in the domestic market.

To date, ENERSA has installed more than 500 solar streetlamps, which run about 1,400 dollars each, in 60 towns. But their long-term target is 35,000 streetlamps in 500 municipalities.

A pile of concrete rubble sits in the factory’s parking lot, a reminder of the Jan. 12 earthquake that wreaked havoc on Port-au-Prince and surrounding areas, leaving a death toll of more than 220,000 and damages worth 7.8 billion dollars.

One exterior wall of the warehouse and all of the interior rooms, which had been built of concrete block, were destroyed. But all of the employees survived unharmed.

Despite the destruction, many of ENERSA’s streetlamps shone through the night.

“People formed their own refugee camps around those streetlights before the outside aid groups ever showed up,” Richard J. Komp of the U.S.-based Skyheat Associates, told Tierramérica. Komp is a global expert in solar energy who mentored Noël and Georges.

Three months after the quake, ENERSA had risen from the ashes, rebuilding the factory, and once again producing solar streetlamps – and now looking to expand the products the company offers.

ENERSA’s 22 employees are mainly young men from nearby Cité Soleil. Most of them have had little schooling, so Noël and Georges train them for several weeks in technical skills. Without these jobs, Noël says, their most likely alternative for making a living would have been to join a gang and sell drugs.

According to Noël, ENERSA is the only firm that manufactures solar streetlights in Haiti, although two other firms distribute them here. Steel tubing and sheet metal for lamp poles and mounts are sourced from Haitian suppliers, along with any other parts they can find domestically.

Komp trained the ENERSA staff how to manufacture their own photovoltaic modules, the solar panels mounted on rooftops that convert sunlight to electricity. The firm has to import the components from the United States.

ENERSA also builds its own simple inverters, devices that control the voltage for cell-phone charging circuits.

A recent innovation is a box with electrical outlets, mounted near the bottom of the streetlamp post. There, people can recharge their cell phones, which are ubiquitous in Haiti.

Last Christmas, ENERSA gave motorcycles to four of its outstanding employees. Now they are circulating through Cité Soleil as proof of the possibility of making a decent living at a good job in Haiti.

(*This story was originally published by Latin American newspapers that are part of the Tierramérica network. Tierramérica is a specialised news service produced by IPS with the backing of the United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme and the World Bank.)

Calderón’s Washington Visit. May 19, 2010.

Calderón and Obama Condemn Arizona Immigration Law

U.S. President Barack Obama welcomed his Mexican counterpart Felipe Calderón to Washington this week where the two leaders decried a tough immigration law approved by Arizona last month. During remarks, Obama said he would ask the Department of Justice to take a “very close look” at the law to determine its constitutionality. “We’re examining any implications, especially for civil rights, because in the United States of America, no law-abiding person, be they an American citizen, a legal immigrant, or a visitor or tourist from Mexico, should ever be subject to suspicion simply because of what they look like.” Calderón rejected SB1070 as “discriminatory.” In his first official visit to Washington, the Mexican president will deliver remarks to U.S. Congress on Thursday. Read an AS/COA analysis about Calderón’s visit.

————————

News Alert: Financial overhaul dealt setback – Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Senate votes to continue debating a bill that would overhaul financial regulations, dealing a setback to Democratic leaders, who wanted to move toward a final vote on the legislation. The motion to end debate fell three votes short of the two-thirds majority required.

For more information, visit washingtonpost.com:
http://link.email.washingtonpost.com/r/NQU5FR/JK83W/N3Z9G3/2XP5K3/TON4I/AZ/t

The plan was for the financial-regulation reform bill to have a vote for cloture — that is to say, a vote to end debate and move to a final vote — at 2 p.m. today. But a handful Senate Democrats angry that their amendments haven’t been considered derailed that. At 3:15 p.m., Democrats called an emergency caucus meeting. About 30 minutes after that meeting, Majority Leader Harry Reid called for a cloture vote.

He lost; 57-42.

And he lost because he lost Democrats. Republicans Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins actually voted for cloture. Their votes were canceled out by Democrats like Maria Cantwell and Russ Feingold, who aren’t ready to give up on their amendments.

Before getting to what that means, it’s worth saying why Reid wants to move to a final vote. The answer is floor time. Next week, the Senate is scheduled to take up the next war supplemental, which will have funding both for Iraq and Afghanistan and also for various disaster-relief efforts, and it will take up a bill to extend economic supports for the jobless.

If the Senate doesn’t finish financial regulation this week, it probably can’t do those bills next week because the GOP’s routine filibusters mean that each vote will require days of floor time. And the plan, as of now, is for the Senate to adjourn come Memorial Day.

Of course, the Senate could just choose to work past Memorial Day, which would solve the problem of floor time.

As for what happens now, debate on financial regulation will continue. More amendments will be considered, at least if Democrats and Republicans can come to an agreement on whether to consider them. And another cloture vote will have to be called. That might be bad for the Senate schedule, but it’s probably good for the bill. This is the rare process in which the amendments are making the legislation substantially better. If the Senate has to work over Memorial Day to accommodate that process, so be it.

The CNN ireport – LIVING IN A TOXIC TOWN. CNN and Dr. Sanjay Gupta invite you to put on video what you know.
 http://www.ireport.com/ir-topic-stories….

Living in a toxic town

Many residents of Mossville, Louisiana, suspect their proximity to more than a dozen chemical plants may be responsible for what they say are high rates of cancer and other diseases in the area.

Is there a place near you where pollution is making people sick? CNN is investigating the environment’s effects on health as part of Dr. Sanjay Gupta’s Toxic Towns USA special. We want you to join us in the newsgathering process.

“Put yourself on video and document conditions in your area, or take photos of what’s around you. Tell us what industrial or chemical pollution may be contributing to health problems for you and those you love, and be sure not to put yourself in a dangerous situation,” CNN writes.

“Tell us about toxic towns near you and Dr. Gupta may report on your community.”

UPCOMING EVENTS

Upcoming events are also regularly published at http://www.ecc-platform.org

“Environmental Collaboration and Conflict Resolution – Evolving to Meet New Opportunities” in Tucson, USA (25-27 May)

This conference, organized by the US Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution, seeks to provide a forum of exchange between the different stakeholders within the field of environmental conflict resolution (ECR) and is directed at professionals from governments, businesses and NGOs alike. The event includes workshops, panel sessions, and roundtable and plenary discussions on three main topics: policy challenges of the next decade and the role of ECR; engaging governments; and new tools and technology and their application to ECR.

For further information, please see http://www.ecr.gov/AnnouncementsEvents/Conference/ECR2010/Home.aspx

– –

“Climate Induced Migration in the Middle East and North Africa” in Marseille (15-16 June)

Organized jointly by the World Bank and the Agence Française de Développement, this workshop aims at enhancing knowledge sharing and network creation among researchers in the field of climate induced migration and displacement. It is directed at researchers, academics and practitioners who work with a regional focus on the Middle East and North Africa region. Topics will include methodological issues, the quantification of climate change impacts, rural-urban migration and its impact on rural and urban development, as well as gender-related issues.

For further information, please go to http://www.semide.net/thematicdirs/events/first-workshop-climate-induced-migration-middle

– –

“Regional Environmental Governance: Interdisciplinary Approaches, Theoretical Issues, Comparative Designs” in Geneva (16-18 June)

This workshop on regional environmental governance, which will take place at the University of Geneva, seeks to foster exchange and discussion between scientists and practitioners. It comprises six different thematic plenary sessions, one of which will examine the connections between regional security and the environment. The workshop will commence with an inaugural public lecture and conclude with a roundtable discussion.

For further information, please go to http://www.reg-observatory.org/index.html

– –

“Climate Change and Security” in Trondheim (21-24 June)

This research conference, organized by the International Peace Research Institute and a number of other renowned academic institutions, aims to examine the broad security implications of climate change. The conference will first review physical and economic effects of climate change in order to subsequently shed light on implications not only for different kinds of violent armed conflicts, but also for human livelihoods and overall human security.

For further information on the conference, including a detailed program, please visit http://climsec.prio.no/Default.aspx

===============================

IMPRINT/CONTACT

Imprint

The newsletter “Environment, Conflict, and Cooperation” is published every two months.

To subscribe or unsubscribe, please follow this link:
http://www.ecc-platform.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=144&Itemid=160

Disclaimer:
Adelphi Research recommends visiting the websites linked to this newsletter. Following a judgment by the Hamburg Regional Court (Landgericht), we must, however, dissociate ourselves from the design and content of all linked pages in order to prevent any compensation claims.

Contact

Publisher:
Alexander Carius
Adelphi Research gGmbH
Caspar-Theyss-Strasse 14a
D – 14193 Berlin

Phone +49-30-89 000 68 0
Fax +49-30-89 000 68 10
www.adelphi-research.de

Editorial team:
Contact: editor@ecc-platform.org
Alexander Carius, Irina Comardicea, Moira Feil, Annabelle Houdret, Kerstin Fritzsche, Annika Kramer, Achim Maas, Christiane Roettger, Dennis Taenzler, Stephan Wolters
Translation support by Anya Malhotra

This newsletter is financed in part by the German Federal Environmental Agency and the Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Protection and Nuclear Safety.

By Garance Franke-Ruta, The Washington Post.
Arizona Sen. John McCain is trying to shake loose the mantle of the maverick brand he shared with former Alaska governor Sarah Palin in 2008.

“I never considered myself a maverick,” he told Newsweek. “I consider myself a person who serves the people of Arizona to the best of his abilities.”

Palin, the magazine reports, apparently didn’t get the message, and urged “fans four times in 15 minutes to send McCain the Maverick back to Washington” during a recent join appearance with the Republican officeholder at a fairground outside Tucson.

The maverick identity was an important part of McCain’s campaign against then-Sen. Barack Obama.

“He’s the original maverick,” declared a summer 2008 ad campaign ad.

McCain also sought to leave his maverick reputation behind in 2007, while courting the GOP primary base, before once again running as an aisle-crossing one of a kind during the 2008 general election. The Obama campaign responded to McCain’s “The Original Maverick” spot with an ad asking, “The original maverick? Or just more of the same?”

The question of whether McCain is a maverick or not also was addressed at length by the vice presidential contender Joe Biden during the 2008 Palin-Biden debate.

“He’s been a maverick on some issues, but he has been no maverick on the things that matter to people’s lives,” Biden said.

Saudi Aramco named energy company of the year
Saudi Aramco has been named Energy Company of the Year for its commitment to a cleaner environment, its investment in …
 http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.as…

These are based on American HART Energy Publishing Company  awarding  ARAMCO and Petrochina the prizes for 2009 Energy companies. We assume they meant oil companies.

We clearly understand about the greatness in investing in new oil streams, but then we would like to remind HART that oil and energy are not synonyms. Also that oil production has not environment benefits.

Above piece from Arab media telling their business how great oil companies can be, leaves us with some bitter after-taste.

The awards will be presented in Phoenix, Arizona, March 24, 2010.

Thunderbird Oath of Honor Pledge Now Available for Thunderbird Alumni.

A message from the Thunderbird Alumni Network:

The Thunderbird Alumni Network is pleased to announce that the Thunderbird Oath of Honor is now available for virtual signing by T-bird alumni. The concept of the Oath of Honor was introduced by Thunderbird President Ángel Cabrera in November 2004 at the first Thunderbird Ethics Day. Following much discussion and solicitation of feedback from T-bird students, faculty and alumni, the Oath of Honor was signed by the graduating class of Spring 2006. Thunderbird has recently been the subject of great publicity surrounding our Oath, which has served to distinguish us as a leader among business schools.

We as Thunderbird alumni have the opportunity to distinguish ourselves as role models for the global business community and society at large. Thunderbird has long been a global thought leader in the concept of global business responsibility as expressed in our mission statement:

We educate global leaders who create sustainable prosperity worldwide.

We invite you to demonstrate our commitment to the Thunderbird core value of global citizenship by signing the Thunderbird Oath of Honor. We challenge you to show the world how our Thunderbird community can join together in a single act by pledging the following oath:

As a Thunderbird and a global citizen, I promise:
I will strive to act with honesty and integrity,
I will respect the rights and dignity of all people,
I will strive to create sustainable prosperity worldwide,
I will oppose all forms of corruption and exploitation, and
I will take responsibility for my actions.
As I hold true to these principles, it is my hope that I may enjoy an honorable reputation and peace of conscience. This pledge I make freely and upon my honor.

Our goal is to encourage as many T-bird alumni as possible to sign the Oath by March 15, 2010 so please encourage your fellow alumni to visit the oath of honor website today!

- The Thunderbird Alumni Network
 http://www.thunderbird.edu/wwwfiles/pubs…

US Oil Imports From Western Hemisphere Countries To The US Are Dropping:

Mexico Petroleum Supply, Exports to U.S. and Net Exports. Source: EIA. Chart by Chris Nelder.

= = = =

Venezuela Petroleum Supply, Exports to U.S. and Net Exports. Source: EIA. Chart by Chris Nelder.

= = = =

Combined Annual Net Oil Exports From Canada, Mexico and Venezuela. Source: Jeffrey J. Brown, Samuel Foucher, PhD, Jorge Silveus.

= = = =

The Oil Export Crisis Has Unofficially Arrived.
By Chris Nelder | Friday, February 5th, 2010

Last March, his study of the effect of peak oil on U.S. imports had
brought Mexico to the forefront. “As our #3 source of imports, the
crashing of its supergiant Cantarell field had put the future of our
oil supply in serious jeopardy.”

The possibility that Mexico’s oil and gas exports to the U.S. could go
to zero within seven years looked very real.

As I explained in that piece, rising domestic consumption coupled with
declining supply puts an ever-tightening squeeze on imports. I have
found no evidence that policymakers are paying any attention to this
critically important dynamic, but it is the very point of the peak oil
spear.

Were it not for the market meltdown and recession, it would have
pierced our vital organs. Instead we felt a pinprick. Hardly anybody
realized what it really was, and most ran off on a wild goose chase
for evil oil speculators.

Now Venezuela has appeared on my radar for similar reasons… only
this time, we’re really going to feel it.

Let’s begin with a review of Mexico’s exports.

Mexico:

Shortly after publishing that article, I casually remarked to my
friend and fellow energy analyst Gregor Macdonald that Cantarell’s
production could fall to under 0.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) by
the end of the year.

I arrived at this somewhat startling conclusion by calculating the
effect of its decline rate — 38% at the time and accelerating — on
production of 0.77 mbpd in January, down precipitously from its 2.1
mbpd peak in 2003.

Gregor’s recent data sleuthing on Cantarell found its production in
December 2009 was 0.527688 mbpd, just a hair above my estimate.

To update the data on Mexico, it’s now our #2 source of imported
petroleum because Saudi Arabia has fallen from #2 to #4.

As of November 2009 (the latest data available) the U.S. imported 1.08
mbpd of crude and finished petroleum products from Mexico. Its exports
to the U.S. peaked at 1.46 mbpd in 2004, the same year as its
production peaked. Net exports (production minus consumption) fell to
1.06 mbpd in 2008.

For the years 2005-2008, Mexico’s exports to the U.S. declined by 0.51
barrels per day. In 2010, supply is expected to fall to 2.5 mbpd —
nearly half a million barrels per day less than 2009.

Mexico nationalized its petroleum operations in 1938 in a
constitutional amendment and handed over total control to the state
oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), with predictable results.

Oil now provides more than 40% of the country’s revenues, which have
been used to pay for a vast array of public services and line the
pockets of the oligarchy while starving investment in both upstream
activities (new oil supply) and downstream (finished products).

Consequently, Mexico’s oil reserves have decreased by more than 75% in
two decades (owing partly to the correction of a previous,
ridiculously inflated figure), production has begun to decline and
exports are falling fast.

It now imports $4.5 billion a year worth of gasoline, $10 billion a
year in petrochemicals, and 25% of its natural gas, mostly from the
U.S. This despite having nearly 13 billion barrels of proven oil
reserves and more than 50 billion barrels of (unproven) reserve
potential.

Mexico would be in a far better position, were it not for its hostile
stance on foreign participation. PEMEX simply lacks the technical
ability to develop its more difficult, remaining resources —
particularly deep water.

Venezuela:

As of November, the U.S. was importing 0.9 mbpd from Venezuela, making
it our #3 source. Its exports to the U.S. peaked at 1.8 mbpd in 1997,
the same year as its production peaked. Net exports (production minus
consumption) have fallen 38% from the 1997 peak of 3.1 mbpd to 1.9
mbpd in 2008.

Venezuela’s oil exports to the U.S. have been declining markedly since
2004, after a long period of relative stability. From 2004 through
2009, Venezuelan petroleum exports fell 0.7 mbpd.

Like Mexico, Venezuela is endowed with enormous energy resources and
could be producing at a far higher level. Estimates of its oil
reserves range from 153 billion barrels of certified proven; to 513
billion barrels technically recoverable in the USGS’ January estimate;
to 1.5 trillion barrels in offshore potential, if you believe the
effervescent Dr. Marcio Mello of Brazil.

Most of it is heavy oil, a low-grade which must be upgraded to synthetic crude.

And like Mexico, President Hugo Chavez has exiled the Western oil
companies who might have made the investment to bring those resources
to market.

A Nation in Free Fall

The good times rolled for Chavez in the first years after his election
in 1998. His socialist programs to rebuild the country and raise its
standard of living were popular but expensive, and soon began to fail
under the crush of declining energy supply.

Oil revenues make up 90% of Venezuela’s foreign earnings, so its
dependence on oil exports is extreme.

Billions of dollars in profits from the national oil company,
Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) were diverted to welfare programs
and into the pockets of oligarchs, while investment in future
petroleum and power supply languished.

The precipitous drop in oil prices since mid-2008 only compounded the
revenue shortfall.

Oil production has fallen 25% since Chavez was elected, and a long,
devastating drought has cut into its hydropower supply, of which 73%
comes from the massive Guri Dam.

Chavez responded by nationalizing most of its petroleum operations and
its grid in 2007.

In 2009, another 76 oil services companies on the Maracaibo Lake were
taken over. The projects now sit abandoned, waiting for PDVSA to
compensate the displaced operators and put them back into operation.

Almost half a million hectares of land were seized in 2009 with the
rationalization that it was underused.

Measures to counter the declining hydro supply have been implemented
in a haphazard fashion, resulting in frequent, unscheduled blackouts,
including seven national blackouts since 2007. Malls and government
offices have had their hours of operation cut and water rationing has
been imposed.

“Some people sing in the bath for half an hour,” Chávez cried at a
cabinet session in October. “What kind of communism is that? Three
minutes is more than enough!”

In January, a wave of public protest erupted, prompting Chavez to
implement a rapid series of desperate measures.

Rolling blackouts were imposed in the capital city of Caracas. After a
few days of protests, Chavez lifted the blackouts and fired the
electricity minister. Blackouts are expected to be reinstated in an
effort to keep hydro reservoir levels from falling to the point of
collapse.
A recent report gave the power shortage a paradoxical twist,
indicating that power from one of the state refineries may have to be
diverted to the grid, cutting distillate output by 200,000 barrels per
day — or more. This will result in less heating oil for China, who
will make up the loss by burning more coal.
Chavez devalued Venezuela’s bolivar currency by half; the president
went on to nationalize a chain of French-owned supermarkets over
alleged price gouging.
He ordered cutbacks in the operation of state-run steel and aluminum
manufacturing operations, which account for up to 20% of the country’s
power demand.
This week he turned to Cuba for help on how to cope with the power
shortage, since Cuba has been through similar problems. The island
nation is providing tens of thousands of energy-efficient lightbulbs
and cloud-seeding technology to Venezuela.
Last weekend, he forced six television channels off the air for
failing to broadcast one of his speeches — up to six hours in length —
in a continuation of his campaign for “communicational hegemony.”
Since December, all radio and television networks are required by law
to broadcast his speeches live, whenever he chooses to make one.
Nationwide student marches have been met by troops armed with rubber
bullets, and at least two deaths have been recorded.
Chavez has said he’s prepared to take “radical measures” should the
situation worsen, begging the unsettling question of what could be
more radical than what he has already done.

Looking East, Not North

Now Chavez is turning east for help in developing his nation’s oil and
gas resources. Recent agreements include a $20 billion joint venture
with Russia to develop the Junin 6 field in the Orinoco oil belt, with
a potential top production rate of 450,000 barrels per day.

China has agreed to build a refinery and develop the Orinoco heavy oil
fields, and Venezuela has guaranteed 560,000 barrels per day to China
this year.

Venezuela has launched its first major auction for drilling rights in
more than a decade, for access to areas east of the existing
operations in the Orinoco. Developing the leases will be expensive
because of their distance from the existing infrastructure, and
winning bidders are expected to make offers in the $10 billion-plus
range including early payments of at least $1 billion, financing
plans, and commitments to build the necessary roads, pipelines, ports,
and upgraders. Potential bidders include Spain’s Repsol, Japan’s
Mitsubishi, the UK’s BP, and Chevron.

Given the sheer size of its resources, it’s too soon to declare the
end of Venezuela’s glory days in the oil patch. However, it does seem
likely that the new barrels it brings to market will be headed east —
not north — and Western producers will have very little stake in the
projects.

Chavez will put exports to the U.S. on a short path to zero the first
chance he gets.

—————–

Oh Imports, Where Art Thou?

The combined decline in imports from Mexico and Venezuela for 2005
through 2008 is 0.89 mbpd. If the trend continues in 2009, then over 1
mbpd will have disappeared from the U.S. import stream in the last
five years — a decline of 8% from 2004 levels.

Since 2007, the loss of production from Cantarell alone was 0.7 mbpd,
but the recession cut U.S. demand by 2 mbpd, effectively masking the
decline. This raises the question: If U.S. demand rises from here,
where will those barrels come from… and how much will they cost?

The U.S. is not only in first place worldwide in its demand for oil,
but in paying the market rate for it. Nobody else buys 8.5 mbpd of
crude at retail.

Drivers in Venezuela are still filling up for 25 cents a gallon, even
as their exports decline.

Mexico’s gasoline prices are more on par with the U.S., but its
consumption has been rising steadily since 1997 and continues to cut
into exports.

Saudi Arabia’s domestic consumption is currently growing at the rate
of 7% per year, following a trend of more than three decades. It uses
a whopping 1.5 mbpd — 1.8% of total world oil supply! — to desalinate
water, at the equivalent of 7 cents a gallon.

Before the OPEC cuts of 2009, its exports to the U.S. had essentially
flatlined at 1.5 mbpd since 2004.

Exports from our #5 source, Nigeria, have also declined — from 1.17
mbpd in 2005 to 0.98 mbpd in 2008.

In fact, of the top five oil exporting countries to the U.S.,
representing 63% of our crude imports, only Canada posted an increase
(of 0.2 mbpd).

The combined annual net oil exports from our top three exporting
countries — Canada, Mexico and Venezuela — illustrate our situation:

Given the very modest increases from unconventional domestic production and Canada, the decline of imports from Mexico and Venezuela means the U.S. will be increasingly forced to depend on suppliers farther afield — the very same suppliers that China has been buying into in size. The “collision course with China” that I wrote about in July 2005 has nearly reached the point of impact.

It also means that when oil prices rise again, the pain will be far greater for the U.S. than it is for our top suppliers. Next time, the spear of declining oil exports will puncture a lung.

The oil export crisis has arrived… We just haven’t felt it yet.

Production, consumption, and export data herein is the latest available from the EIA.

Until next time,
Chris

Thanks to the following individuals for their contributions to this
article: Venezuelan oil expert Carlos Rossi for sharing excerpts from
his forthcoming book, The Completion of the Oil Era: The Economic
Impact; Gregor Macdonald for sharing his data on Cantarell; and
Jeffrey Brown and Samuel Foucher, for their work on net exports data
and the Export Land Model.

Investor’s Note: While declining oil imports from Mexico and Venezuela
paint a nightmare scenario for meeting future U.S. demand, all hope
isn’t lost… In fact, one U.S. oil play is developing at a breakneck
pace. You’re likely aware of the Bakken oil formation. But you may not
realize fully how the Bakken has single-handedly thrust North Dakota
into the international investment spotlight.

Of course, members of the $20 Trillion Report know how profitable the
Bakken oil formation is. So far, they’ve raked in gains of 305%, 249%
and 130%! We want you to share in their success.

—————————-

Our reaction to the above goes in two directions:

To every straights there is also the possibility for an answer that provides for new opportunities. in this case:

(1) it becomes even clearer that the US has here an opportunity to make policy accommodations with its neighbors to the south.

(2) the US does not have to – and will not – continue its dependence on oil alone as its source for energy. The US can go for novel and mostly renewable sources of energy, then the Saudis might also discover sun and wind as good replacement for this insanity of using 25% of their oil to provide their water needs. Whatever – energy independence – or at least oil imports reduction for the US – is not an excuse for  a “drill baby drill” US energy policy. Actually, put a carbon tax on the use of oil in the US as a good way to tell the world that the US is capable to detoxify from its addiction to oil imports.

Rupert Murdoch’s Media Empire is Hiring Sarah Palin for its FOX NEWS. They already have Karl Rove and Mike Huckabee – bank on The News Corporation to become the USA Anti Environmental – Effective Anti-America Power House. That is – if caterring for the right fringe will not eventualy help catalyze the awakening of the middle.

Palin signs on with Fox News.
By Howard Kurtz, The Washington Post, January 11, 2010
Sarah Palin, who regularly rips the media, is becoming a television pundit at a place where she’s likely to feel at home.

A Fox News executive says the network will shortly announce that the former vice-presidential nominee is signing on as a contributor.

Palin, who resigned as governor of Alaska last summer, will appear as a commentator on various Fox shows. She will also host an occasional program that will examine inspirational tales involving ordinary Americans.

Palin will join Mike Huckabee as a Fox contributor who was also involved in the 2008 campaign. The exposure can only help Palin if she decides to pursue a 2012 presidential bid.

At the moment, Palin makes pronouncements mainly through her Facebook page. The Fox connection would give her a platform on the nation’s top-rated cable news channel.

Palin is extremely popular with her conservative base, which has fueled the sales of her best-selling memoir. But she is a divisive political figure who not only draws the ire of liberals but some Republicans, including staffers who deal with her during her run as John McCain’s running mate. Steve Schmidt, a top McCain strategist, said on “60 Minutes” last night that “there were numerous instances that she said things that were — that were not accurate that ultimately, the campaign had to deal with.”

Hiring Palin could further boost the popularity of Rupert Murdoch’s network among conservative viewers. The network already employs former Bush White House aide Karl Rove and former House speaker Newt Gingrich as highly visible commentators.

Mexico vows to set new efficiency rules for autos, it will also push for more efficient new government buildings.
05 Jan 2010, Reuters

(Adds background on alternative energy, efficient buildings)
MEXICO CITY, Jan 5 (Reuters) – Mexico will limit imports of inefficient used cars and encourage low-carbon technology to reduce its overall volume of tailpipe exhaust, the energy ministry said on Tuesday.
The ministry said it was also mulling regulations that would for the first time set a national standard for auto emissions. Such standards would be at the “vanguard” of international best standards, the agency said.

—
Officials hope to slowly purge heavy, inefficient autos from among the roughly 21 million cars now on the road in Mexico. The nation’s auto fleet is expected to rise by more than 14 million vehicles by 2017.
Only 1 percent of Mexican automobiles currently use alternative fuel, the ministry said.
The new importation rules will aim to “avoid the accelerated aging of the Mexican car fleet,” the agency said in a statement.
A senior Mexican environmental policymaker said in August the country would likely adopt fuel efficiency standards compatible with those in place in the United States. [ID:nN03537208]
Mexico is one of the world’s largest car builders and most global auto companies have at least one factory in the country.
Stakeholders in the domestic auto market have long lobbied for limits to be placed on the import of older used cars from the United States to help support the domestic market.
The new goals were developed as part of a multi-year national plan to create a sustainable energy policy.
In a separate move, the ministry promised to outline new standards for energy efficiency in newly-built government offices.

——–

We wish to bring up the possibility that some unscrupulous US interest might yet bring up NAFTA and free trade arguments to disallow  stopping the dumping of old US cars in Mexico, a measure that clearly has to do with Mexico interests that prefer not to have this competition to their home produced vehicles. We will watch.

 

Climate Change Adaptation: It’s about Water! 
— Global Water Partnership’s contribution to the climate change dialogue

Water is central to the world’s development challenges. Whether it is food security, poverty reduction, economic growth, human health—water is the nexus. Climate change is the spoiler. No matter how successful mitigation efforts might be, people will experience the impacts of climate change through water.

The Global Water Partnership is participating in ‘Water Day’ at the climate change negotiations in Barcelona. GWP Executive Secretary Dr Ania Grobicki will be the lead speaker on water and transboundary issues on Tuesday, November 3. The venue is the Fira Congress Hotel, opposite the conference centre. The opening session starts at 9 am and lunch will be provided.

Recently, the GWP’s Technical Committee released its 14th Background Paper: “Water Management, Water Security and Climate Change Adaptation.” It argues that investments in water are investments in adaptation. The paper can be downloaded on www.gwpforum.org or ordered free at gwp@gwpforum.org.

Climate Change: How can we Adapt? – a one-pager about GWP’s key messages on this subject – is available here: http://www.gwpforum.org/gwp/library/GWP_Briefingnote_climatechange.pdf.

GWP has been accepted as an Inter-Governmental Organisation with Observer Status at  COP 15 in Copenhagen in December and has submitted an article to the delegate publication. But more information on that will follow later. 

More resources about climate change and water and more information on GWP’s involvement in the global dialogue on climate change is available on this page: http://www.gwpforum.org/servlet/PSP?iNodeID=205&itemId=442.

 

——————————————————–Steven DowneyHead of CommunicationsGlobal Water Partnership (GWP)Drottninggatan 33SE-111 51 Stockholm, SWEDENPhone:   +46 8 522 126 52Fax:      + 46 8 522 126 31E-mail: steven.downey@gwpforum.orgWebsite: www.gwpforum.org
A water secure world – the mission of the Global Water Partnership is to support the sustainable development and management of water resources at all levels.

Uranium Contamination Haunts Navajo Country

Dan Frosch, The New York Times, July 27, 2009.

“There were a lot of things people weren’t told about the plight of Navajos and uranium mining,” Stephen B. Etsitty said. The Slowman home, the same one-level cinderblock structure his family had lived in for nearly a half-century, was contaminated with potentially dangerous levels of uranium from the days of the cold war, when hundreds of uranium mines dotted the vast tribal land known as the Navajo Nation. The scientist advised Mr. Slowman, his wife and their two sons to move out until their home could be rebuilt.

“I was angry,” Mr. Slowman said. “I guess it was here all this time, and we never knew.”

The legacy wrought from decades of uranium mining is long and painful here on the expansive reservation. Over the years, Navajo miners extracted some four million tons of uranium ore from the ground, much of it used by the United States government to make weapons.

Many miners died from radiation-related illnesses; some, unaware of harmful health effects, hauled contaminated rocks and tailings from local mines and mills to build homes for their families.

Now, those homes are being demolished and rebuilt under a new government program that seeks to identify what are very likely dozens of uranium-contaminated structures still standing on Navajo land and to temporarily relocate people living in them until the homes can be torn down and rebuilt.

Stephen B. Etsitty, executive director of the Navajo Nation Environmental Protection Agency, and other tribal officials have been grappling for years with the environmental fallout from uranium mining.

“There were a lot of things people weren’t told about the plight of Navajos and uranium mining,” Mr. Etsitty said. “These legacy issues are impacting generations. At some point people are saying, ‘It’s got to end.’ ”

After a Congressional hearing in 2007, a cross-section of federal agencies committed to addressing the environmental and health impacts of uranium mining on the reservation. As part of that commitment, the federal Environmental Protection Agency and the Navajo Nation began working together to assess uranium levels in 500 structures through a five-year plan set to end in 2012.

Using old lists of potentially contaminated structures, federal and Navajo scientists have fanned out to rural reaches of the 27,000 square mile reservation — which includes swaths of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah — to measure levels of radium, a decay product of uranium that can cause lung cancer. Of 113 structures assessed so far, 27 contained radiation levels that were above normal.

“In these situations, you have contamination in somebody’s yard or in their house,” said Harry Allen, the E.P.A.’s section chief for emergency response in San Francisco who is helping lead the government’s efforts. “To us, that is somewhat urgent.”

Many structures that showed high levels of radiation were vacant; some families had already moved out after hearing stories of contamination in their homes. But eight homes still had people living in them, and the E.P.A. and Navajo officials have worked to convince residents that it would be unsafe to stay.

“People had been told they were living in contaminated structures, but nobody ever did anything about it,” said Will Duncan, an environmental scientist who has been the E.P.A.’s main representative on the reservation. “They would tell us, ‘We don’t believe you are going to follow through.’ ”

But with a budget of nearly $8 million, the E.P.A. has demolished all 27 contaminated structures and has begun building ones to replace those that had been occupied. Typically, the agency pays a Navajo contracting company to construct a log cabin or a traditional hogan in the structure’s stead, depending on the wishes of the occupants. Mr. Allen said the cost, including temporarily relocating residents, ran approximately $260,000 per dwelling and took about eight months.

The agency also offers $50,000 to those who choose not to have an old home rebuilt.

Lillie Lane, a public information officer with the Navajo Nation E.P.A. who has acted as a liaison between the federal government and tribal members, said the program held practical and symbolic importance given the history of uranium mining here.

Ms. Lane described the difficulty of watching families, particularly elders, leaving homes they had lived in for years. She told of coming upon two old miners who died before their contaminated homes could be rebuilt. “In Navajo, a home is considered sacred,” she said. “But if the foundation or the rocks are not safe, we have to do this work.”

Some families, Ms. Lane said, complained that their children were suffering from health problems and had wondered if radiation were to blame.

The E.P.A. has started sifting through records and interviewing family members to figure out whether mining companies that once operated on the reservation are liable for any damages, Mr. Allen said.

On a recent summer day, Fred and Clara Slowman proudly surveyed their new home, a one-level log cabin that sits in the quiet shadows of Black Rock Point, miles away from the bustle of Farmington, N.M., where the family has been living in a hotel.

Mr. Slowman said he suspected that waste materials from a nearby abandoned mine seeped into his house. The family plans on having a traditional Navajo medicine man bless their dwelling before they move in.

“In our traditional way, a house is like your mom,” he said. “It’s where you eat, sleep, where you’re taken care of. And when you come back from the city, you come back to your mom. It makes you feel real good.”

THE AMERICAS SOCIETY
The Risks of Deforestation in the Amazon

JULY 23 NEW YORK

Confirmed Speakers:

Bruce Babbitt, author of article in upcoming summer issue of Americas Quarterly on the Trans-South American Highway and its effect on the Amazon, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior and former Governor of Arizona

Andrew Revkin, science reporter for the New York Times since 1995 and author of several books, including The Burning Season: The Murder of Chico Mendes and the Fight for the Amazon Rain Forest

Moderator: Christopher Sabatini, Senior Director of Policy, AS/COA; Editor-in-Chief, Americas Quarterly

*Copies of both Americas Quarterly: Human Rights and  The Burning Season:The Murder of Chico Mendes and the Fight for the Amazon Rain Forest will be on sale at the event.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Registration: 5:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Presentations and Discussion: 6:00 p.m. to 7:30 p.m.

Reception: 7:30 p.m. to 8:15 p.m.

Americas Society/Council of the Americas
680 Park Avenue (corner of 68th St)
New York, NY 10065

This event is free to the public and open to press.

Event information: Please Contact Valeria Souza Cruz at 212-277-8372 or  vcruz at as-coa.org or visit www.as-coa.org.

President Obama will this week become the first African American President to make an official visit to an African country.

The most interesting fact is that he does not go to South Africa or Nigeria – the two countries that compete for the unofficial title of leaders of black Africa. President Obama decided to go to the oil producing belt of West Africa, and this cut out South Africa;   then he chose the unassuming Ghana, rather then the feisty Nigeria – the most populous black state and important partner of the US in oil trade.

Why? What does he teach in this visit?

Nigeria is a corrupt state to its bone. Even its son, the Nobel Price winning Wole Soyinka said that neglecting Nigeria was just the right medicine that Nigeria needed. He continued then with the shocking statement: “I’d ‘stone’ Obama if he showed up in Nigeria and conferred legitimacy on its sorry government.”

Ghana on the other hand, a much smaller West African nation, as of now with little US trade, did hold fair multiparty democratic elections since 1992, and   has a history of incumbents stepping down once they reach their term limits.

Ghana is a beacon of hope to Africa and has produced the only two-terms African UN Secretary-General, Koffi Annan, who we hope will be at hand when President Obama arrives for a day at the end of this week.

Yes, we know, it is rumored that the US is interested in Ghana also as it is the newest arrival to the West Coast Oil-belt, and with China making inroads in the region, the US might be interested to establish here a military base as well as an oil trade relationship.

But even so, this US President showed preference for clean government if this is at all possible.

Africa watch and learn!

Natives Hope Obama Will Be Their President, Too.

By Haider Rizvi from IPS

NEW YORK, Nov 24 (IPS) - During his election campaign, Barack Obama repeatedly said that he cared about the issues facing Native American communities and insisted that they could trust him — pledges that Native leaders are now watching closely as the president-elect appoints a new cabinet and fills other key federal posts.

So far, Obama has named six native political figures to his transition team — half of them assigned to assist in Interior Department policy, budget and personnel changes.

“We’re lucky to have such stellar representatives with people with whom Indian Country has really good relationships,” said Jacqueline Johnson-Pata, executive director of the National Congress of American Indians, a nonprofit organisation that represents more than 250 tribes.

Native advocates Mary Smith, Mary McNeil and Yvette Robideaux have been assigned to work on justice, agriculture and health issues, while three current and former attorneys with the Native American Rights Fund — John Echohawk, Keith Harper and Robert Anderson — will advise Obama on changes proposed within the Interior Department.

The Natives, also known as “American Indians”, have their own sovereign governments, which the United States recognises in accordance with its constitution and under treaty obligations. However, as the Native leaders observe, their communities have always suffered from inattention during the transition and early years of past U.S. administrations.

“If appointments and major policy decisions are delayed for extended periods, the long-term issues in Indian Country are left unaddressed and handed on to the next administration,” said Johnson-Pata. .

In her view, “any significant reform efforts must be planned during the transition and start at the beginning of an administration if they are to succeed.”

As he continued to reach out to new voting blocs past summer, Obama made a campaign stop at an Indian reservation in Montana, where he told the audience that, as an African-American, he identified with their struggles.

“I know what it’s like to not always have been respected or to have been ignored and I know what it’s like to struggle and that’s how I think many of you understand what’s happened here on the reservation,” Obama said.

In his speech, Obama added: “A lot of times you have been forgotten, just like African-Americans have been forgotten or other groups in this country have been forgotten.”

Statistics show that the indigenous communities, which constitute about one percent of the U.S. population, are among the most marginalised sections of society with regard to health care, education and employment.

In March 2006 and again in March 2008, a panel of U.N. experts analysed the U.S. government’s treatment of indigenous Americans and ruled that it was guilty of racial discrimination.

In its 2008 report, the U.N. Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) also urged the U.S. to sign onto the U.N. Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, which the current administration has continued to reject despite the fact it has been approved by a vast majority of the U.N. member states.

Indigenous rights activists say they hope that the Obama administration would endorse the declaration, which recognised the rights of the indigenous peoples around the world to control their lands and resources and be able to freely practice their belief systems and traditional values without interference from outside forces.

During the Nov. 4 presidential election, a vast majority of Native people voted for Obama, according to Frank LaMere of the Winnebago Tribe of Nebraska, who led the American Indian delegation to the Democratic Convention.

“Obama has stood with us and it is now time that we stand with him,” he said in a statement, describing the Natives’ interest in the political process as unprecedented. “Indian country has responded to the Democratic message of change and the need for urgency.”

“We have many who go without because our leaders have failed us. This election means much to them. Obama understands this while others remain oblivious. Let us, as Native people, help him.”

On the campaign trail in Montana, Obama was adopted as an honourary member of the Crow tribe, a ceremony that native activists say is reserved for special dignitaries. On that occasion, he was given a new name, “Barack Black Eagle”.

Many activists fighting for the rights of indigenous people say they are hoping that the Obama administration would also re-examine the case of Leonard Peltier, the legendary hero of the American Indian Movement who has been behind bars for nearly four decades.

Peltier was arrested after a shootout between American Indian militants and federal agents in Pine Ridge in 1975. Some 60 natives were killed along with two FBI agents. Peltier has consistently refused to claim his innocence and considers his imprisonment an act of racism.

Over the years, a number of world-renowned figures, including the South African Nobel Peace Prize laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu, have called for Peltier’s release, but in vain. According to Amnesty International, Peltier is a “prisoner of conscience”.

Just three months before the election, Peltier sent a letter to the president-elect from his jail cell, expressing his interest in Obama’s candidacy. “Your election as president of the United States, where slaves and Indians were long considered less than human under the law, will undoubtedly constitute a historic moment in race relations in the United States,” he wrote.

However, at the same time, he did not hesitate to warn Obama against opportunism. “Symbolism alone will not bring about change,” wrote Peltier. “Our young people, black and Native alike, suffer from police brutality and racial profiling.”

“I am, however, concerned that your recent statement on the Sean Bell verdict, in which the New York police officers who fired 50 shots at a young man on the eve of his wedding were acquitted of criminal charges, displays a rather myopic view of the law,” said Peltier.

On April 26, when asked to explain his views on the case, Obama said: “Well, look, obviously there was a tragedy in New York. I said at the time, without benefit of all the facts before me that it looked like a possible case of excessive force. The judge has made his ruling, and we’re a nation of laws, so we respect the verdict that came down.”

That is not how the hero of the indigenous peoples of the land looks at how the U.S. political and legal system works.

“Until the law is harnessed to protect the victims of state violence and racism, it will serve as an instrument of repression, just as the slave codes functioned to sustain and legitimise an inhuman institution,” Peltier wrote in the letter.

***

Still, Obama has reached out more to the Native community than most others with presidential aspirations.

“We will never be able to undo the wrongs that were committed against Native Americans, but what we can do is make sure that we have a president who’s committed to doing what’s right with Native Americans, being full partners, respecting, honouring, working with you,” Obama told the Native crowd back in May.

“That’s the commitment that I’m making to you, and since now I’m a member of the family, you know that I won’t break my commitment.” he said. The question many Natives are now asking is: Will he?  

FDR vs. Reagan
By David Sirota, AlterNet. Posted October 31, 2008.

The final stretch of the Presidential race has become an ideological proxy war between Ronald Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt. So it has all come down to this.

After two years and a quarter-billion dollars worth of ads, the pulverizing election has become a steel-cage match pitting rivals against each other — and not Immigrants versus Natives, Americans versus Foreigners or Whites versus Blacks.

No, John McCain and Barack Obama have made the race’s final weeks an ideological proxy war between two presidential icons who still loom larger than them: Ronald Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt.

McCain promises to “follow in [Reagan's] tradition and in his footsteps” while vilifying Obama as a 1930s-era “socialist” looking to “redistribute wealth.” Obama counters by invoking Roosevelt’s speeches and depicting the financial meltdown as “the final verdict” on McCain’s “failed philosophy” (i.e., Reaganism).

***

Mind you, neither personifies these predecessors. Obama’s moderate record is not FDR’s quasi-socialism, and McCain has renounced some of his Reagan-inspired dogma.

Both also ignore inconsistencies. Obama criticizes the “failed philosophy” of Reagan conservatism while infusing some of his own prescriptions with such conservatism. McCain attacks Obama’s “socialism” after voting for the bank bailout bill — the most aggressive stroke of socialism in contemporary American history.

But all that is less important right now than the duo’s binary framing. They both effectively say a vote for McCain is a vote to continue Reagan’s trickle-down tax cuts and free-market fundamentalism, and a vote for Obama is a vote to resurrect Roosevelt’s regulations and redistributions. And because this choice has been made so clear — because we know what we’re voting on — whoever wins will have a huge mandate to implement the ideology he thematically represented.

That’s why conservatives are so worried.

They see the cause and effect: As McCain doubles down on the right’s economic catechism, Obama is surging. Even in traditional Gipper territory like Colorado and Virginia, the Rooseveltian Socialist is running ahead of Reagan Reincarnate.

Conservatives’ response is a preemptive “nah, nah, can’t hear you!” They contend that no matter how big progressives may win on Election Day, this is nonetheless a center-right nation. Indeed, a LexisNexis search shows this poll-tested term — “center-right nation” — is lately among the Punditburo’s most ubiquitous Orwellian buzzwords. From a Newsweek cover story by conservative dittohead Jon Meacham to a Wall Street Journal screed by former Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan to a Politico.com diatribe by former Rudy Giuliani aide John Avlon, the “center-right nation” phrase is being parroted with the propagandistic discipline of Cuba’s Ministry of Information.

The proof of this center-right nation? Republicans cite polls showing more Americans call themselves conservative than liberal. While that data point certainly measures brand name, those same surveys undermine the right’s larger argument because they show majorities support progressive positions on most economic issues.

Nevertheless, if Obama wins, expect more frantic talk from the fringe about how electing a black man billed as an Islamic Karl Marx obviously means our country is more conservative than ever. We’ll also be treated to hysterical assertions like those from former Bush aide Peter Wehner, who this week told the Washington Post that “it is a mistake to assume that significant GOP losses, should they occur, are a referendum on conservatism.”

But with the Bush era finely tuning America’s BS detector, repetition and revisionism can no longer cloak reality.

“As the Republican ticket continues to run against the very idea of progressive politics, they are sowing the seeds of the post-election realignment narrative,” writes The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder, adding that a McCain loss in such an ideologically polarized contest means “Democrats can justifiably claim that conservatism itself has been rejected.”

That would be the very mandate for “direct, vigorous action” Roosevelt described in his 1933 inaugural address. Should a President Obama try to capitalize on it, he will have nothing to fear but fear itself.

———————

David Sirota is a best-selling author whose newest book, “The Uprising,” was just released this month. He is a fellow at the Campaign for America’s Future and a board member of the Progressive States Network — both nonpartisan organizations. His blog is at www.credoaction.com

Evangelicals and Rural Americans Are Breaking Big for Obama: A mass defection from the Republican Party may be underway in counties that were once GOP strongholds. Call it the reverse Bradley Effect.

By Robert S. Eshelman, Tomdispatch.com. Posted October 30, 2008.

There’s clearly a new political landscape forming in the U.S. That’s what the polls are telling us. It’s not just that the first major-party black candidate for President is leading by significant margins in the national polls; it’s not just that North Dakota, a state George W. Bush won in 2004 by 64%, is believed to be “in play”; it’s not just that Virginia which, like North Dakota, was last carried by a Democrat in the sweep year of 1964, is, according to the most recent Washington Post poll and others, in the Obama camp by at least 8 points, or that he’s leading in a remarkable number of states Bush took in 2004, or even that Democratic Senate and House candidates are making a run of it in previously ridiculous places.

(a) Consider, instead, three recent polls in the context of the Bush years. Obama and McCain are now in a “statistical dead heat” among born-again evangelicals, those Rovian foot soldiers of two successful Bush elections, according to a recent survey; and the same seems to be true in Sarah Palin’s “real America,” those rural and small town areas she’s praised to the skies.

(b) According to a poll commissioned by the Center for Rural Strategies, in those areas which Bush won in 2004 by 53%-41%, Obama now holds a statistically insignificant one point lead.

(c) To complete this little trifecta, Gallup has just released a poll showing that Jews are now likely to vote for Obama by a more than 3 to 1 majority (74% to 22%).

If present projections come close to holding, this could prove to be a rare reconfiguring or turning-point election — as Wall Street expert Steve Fraser first suggested might be possible at TomDispatch way back in February 2007. If so, the Republican Party, only recently besotted by dreams of a generational Pax Republicana, might find itself driven back into the deep South and deep West for who knows how long, “an extremist rump, reduced to a few stronghold states and obsessed with causes that seem not to matter to the general public.”

Among the remaining unknowns in this election, of course, are the intertwined issues of class and race. In this regard, few places have been more closely examined than parts of Pennsylvania, a battleground state in which polls show John McCain significantly behind, but which he must capture if he hopes to win this election, and a place where working-class, as well as possibly racist, “Hillary voters” were supposed to be especially strong. Ever since the primaries, reporters have been tromping the state in search of them. Today, TomDispatch has an interesting twist on such articles. We’ve sent a home-town boy back to Pennsylvania to offer a more personal view of the race there — and the news isn’t good for the future of the Republican Party. — Introduction by TomDispatch editor, Tom Engelhardt.
 http://www.alternet.org/election08/10526…