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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on August 19th, 2008 The article in the New York Sun is based on a posting by Brad Setser on a Council of Foreign Relations (New York City) site that shows that since the 4th quarter of 2004 the autocracies’ wealth increases drastically, and the wealth of the liberal democracies that are dependent on oil imports has actually decreased in the first half of 2008 by 40% compared to the 4th quarter of 2007. The correlation with the price of oil is obvious - so is obvious the future lack of political independence of a country that depends on borrowing money from the rich autocracies that buy into its paper debt. Losing the will to react against its lenders will predictably turn the US into a paper tiger. Is that why those countries continue to invest in its paper debt? I have never seen a better justification for the need of the US to go for an Apollo-type project to beat its addiction on oil imports. The US independence is depending on this!
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on August 3rd, 2008 OFFSHORE MAGAZINE, PennWell Corporation, Tulsa, OK - Offshore magazine, first published in 1954, is a monthly publication recognized as the worldwide leader for covering the key issues and trends relative to offshore technology, oil and gas E&P (Exploration and Production) operations. It is the world’s most highly respected magazine dedicated entirely to the offshore industry, and enjoys the highest and most widely read circulation in its class. Since 1910, The PennWell Petroleum Group has been the industry leader for coverage of and service to the worldwide petroleum industry. Its foundation magazines are Oil & Gas Journal, Offshore, Oil, Gas & Petrochem Equipment, Oil & Gas Financial Journal, LNG Observer and The Petroleum Buyers Guide. The group also produces targeted e-Newsletters, hosts global conferences and exhibitions, seminars and forums, directories and technical books, print and electronic databases, surveys and maps. We were introduced to http://www.offshore-mag.com because of our interest in the oil finds in Brazil. Brazil is now at the top of OFFSHORE interest and they plan an upcoming webcast lecture: (AkerSolutions Technip) The Petrobras FPSO Experience: Technology Evolution and Application In the US Gulf of Mexico ***
*** Brazil in OPEC? If confirmed, the Carioca-Sugar Loaf find would vault Brazil into the Top 10 countries for oil reserves, ahead of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) such as Nigeria and Libya. It also would surpass the US, point out oil analysts. Director Estrella, who is known for conservative forecasts, told Offshore that: “Considering the geologically provable dimensions of the whole pre-salt reservoirs, including Santos, Campos, and Espírito Santo basins, plus other prospects, such as geologically estimated recoverable oil and natural gas in the Tupi accumulation, we may be dealing with recoverable volumes very much larger than the current Brazilian proven reserves.” I am not in favor of Brazil joining OPEC. New oil producing countries started exporting but did not join OPEC, which in a way is weakening OPEC’s economic and political power. OPEC is going down the path of political obsolescence.” *** The OFFSHORE Magazine July 2008 issue (July 7, 2008) includes three articles about Brazil. We give here the references and small parts from these articles: July 7, 2008 Title: “Pre-salt discoveries continue in Brazil. ” (Above is a 6 page article) by Peter Howard Wertheim, Contributing Editor Potential for super-giant fields remains to be confirmed in ultra deepwater.
Brazil Energy Minister Edison Lobão was quoted as saying on São Paulo’s Estado newswire that he would neither confirm nor deny Lima’s statements. However, he cautioned that any announcement on the extension of oil fields should only be made once the government is certain about the data. For context, current Brazilian crude oil proven reserves are at 14.4 Bbbl. For Brazilian analysts, it also casts new doubts on peak oil theory, which postulates that world oil demand will soon outpace supply. Riedel says uncertainty remains regarding the size of the Carioca discovery on BM-S-9 block, which lays under 2 km (6,562 ft) of water, plus many more kilometers of sand, hard rock, and another 2 km of salt. The exploration area, also called Carioca-Sugar Loaf, is 275 km (171 mi) off the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. “Petrobras is very good at deepwater drilling but this is going to be very complicated stuff to get out of the ground,” he adds. —————– July 7, 2008 http://www.offshore-mag.com/display_arti… Title: “Jubarte field production enhanced with wellbore ESP”. (Above is a 4 page article) by Marcos Pellegrini, Giovanni Colodette - Petrobras 1,200-hp subsea system installed.
Jubarte field: The Jubarte field, in the northern part of the Campos basin, about 80 km (49.7 mi) offshore from the state of Espírito Santo, was discovered in January 2001. An extended well test was performed to evaluate drilling, completion, artificial lift technology, and to verify reserves. Then, Petrobras started Phase 1 production with FPSO P-34. Four wells were planned to produce around 60,000 b/d of oil. Two of the wells are produced using gas lift, the third one is an ESP installation on the seabed, and the fourth is a subsea ESP wellbore installation. ———————- July 7, 2008 http://www.offshore-mag.com/display_arti… Drilling zero discharge offshore Brazil in an environmentally sensitive area. (Above is a 3 page article) These drillings are in shallow waters near terrific white sand beaches. by Perry Morris - El Paso Oil & Gas Equipment outlay: ————— The deepwater oil-finds locations towards the the souther part of Brazil’s coast - the Santos Basin and the Caramba, Sugar Loaf, Carioca, Parati, Tupi and Jupiter discoveries.
Location map of the exploration blocks in Santos basin showing the recent giant and super-giant pre-salt oil and gas discoveries. The shallow water oil-basins that are close to environmentally sensitive coasts. North of Rio de Janeiro - the Espirito Santo and Camamu basins and the Potiguar basin in the northeast.
The Acai and Cacau exploration wells in the Camamu basin are in a shallow 23 m (75.5 ft) water depth near shore. Permalink | ### |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on August 1st, 2008 We love, personally, Brazil - and have many friends in this stirring giant of a country. www.SustainabiliTank.info has much to thank to Brazil since our early visits to the country close to 35 years ago. Our Brazil button on this web - shows this only in small part. It was in Brazil we learned about the power Renewable Energy has to free us of all those effects that result from the addiction to petroleum. Furthermore, it was a nuclear physicist, Prof. Jose Goldemberg of Sao Paulo who made it clear to us, already then, that nuclear power is no solution. It was Dr. Jaime Rothstein of Sondotecnica, Rio de Janeiro, who already then showed us how the economy can benefit from moving away from oil imports and grow from local programs. He wrote those ideas up still at the time that Brazil was run by Generals and I witnessed how he presented his ideas to them and they saw the clear National interest in what he was saying. We also love Fortaleza - the town in the State of Ceara, Northeast of Brazil - pushing 3 million people (in reality nobody knows the exact number of inhabitants - this because of the fact that the boom in the city has attracted additional people from the country-side) and that sits on the “shoulder” of Brazil. We were introduced to this town by Professor Jose Oswaldo Carioca who was the Rapporteur from Brazil, on topics of Biomass, to the preparatory meeting of the UN Conference on New And Renewable Sources of Energy (UNCNRSE - Nairobi, 1981). We have been many times to Fortaleza - and kept up contact with him and his people from the University of Ceara - the last time at the meeting in November 2007 that dealt with Green Chemistry. Brazil’s secret is that with 185 million people it is dependent on the US only for 2.5 percent of its gross national product, compared with 25 percent of G.N.P. for Mexican exports - so, if the US economy slows down it does not have to have a major impact on Brazil. Brazil has a huge internal market, and the moment former President - Professor Henrique Cardozo - understood this - and made a go for developing this market by helping the poor and not only worry about the rich, and when his successor - “Lula” (Fernando Henrique Cardoso) of labor-leader fame, continued these policies of respecting the conventional economy while at the same time enhancing the social aspects of the country - Brazil started to boom. Brazil today is the Latin progressing giant that did not get stuck in populism rhetoric, but did go directly for fattening up the ranks of its middle class. We follow on this website the Brazilian effort to open further doors to its economy in the US - as spearheaded by its diplomats and business people at the Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce (BACC) headquartered in New York. Today I was full of surprise by the practical recognition of The New York Times - as evidenced by the Center-Front-Page serious reporting on Brazil that originated in Fortaleza. Brazil is following China and India, as third developing country that makes progress by having turned to help its own poor people. Sure, with a population only as big as 1/6.5 as the two larger upstarts, but with a territory their size, and natural riches that are immense, it has the potential to move forefront lined up with these other two giants. As it is becoming also an oil power - the sky is the limit - and the Brazilian diplomacy starts showing its muscle. So, the article’s timing, as a follow up to the crash of the WTO negotiations, should be viewed as a warning to the US that some countries - now led by China, India, and Brazil, will not allow themselves pushed around by a US-EU leadership that thinks very little of the impact of economic decisions on those “others.” China, India, and Mexico will suffer if the US and EU economies falter, but not Brazil. The Brazilians will just simply continue with their “Bolsa Familia” social programs and their successful microcredit programs, spearheaded by government banks like the Bank of the Northeast, and get more and more people to buy refrigerators and TVs. They will expand electricity use, and will drive using biofuels. They seriously develop solar, wind, and sea-wave technologies - and at their own pace the huge oil resource they found off-shore. I said “at their own pace,” because they are in no hurry to deplete those resources because others want to buy the oil. They will release some of this oil to the market - and this as refined products - just about as much as they think that is needed as funds for their national development program. We hope that they will not allow anyone to push them beyond as far as they find it to be to their own interest. Exporting soy beans and products, as well as other agricultural products, and ores, is just fine. They are going also for high-tech and medicines. All what they want is access to markets - like the ethanol market in the US and in Europe. If these are not forthcoming, there is no push to give in to demands by other economic powers. So, please read the following article carefully - so it is getting clear why Brazil can indeed afford to stand up to these other powers.
Strong Economy Propels Brazil to World Stage. Strong Economy Propels Brazil Into Long-Anticipated Global Role. By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO From FORTALEZA, Brazil — Desperate to escape her hand-to-mouth existence in one of Brazil’s poorest regions, Maria Benedita Sousa used a small loan five years ago to buy two sewing machines and start her own business making women’s underwear. Also - Recent oil discoveries off the coast of Rio de Janeiro State have led to a construction boom in the port town of Angra dos Reis. Riding a Wave of Growth: Today Ms. Sousa, a mother of three who started out working in a jeans factory making minimum wage, employs 25 people in a modest two-room factory that produces 55,000 pairs of cotton underwear a month. She bought and renovated a house for her family and is now thinking of buying a second car. Her daughter, who is studying to be a pharmacist, could be the first family member to finish college. Today her country is lifting itself up in much the same way. Brazil, South America’s largest economy, is finally poised to realize its long-anticipated potential as a global player, economists say, as the country rides its biggest economic expansion in three decades. That growth is being felt in nearly all parts of the economy, creating a new class of super rich even as people like Ms. Sousa lift themselves into an expanding middle class. Despite investor fears about the leftist bent of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva when he was elected to lead Brazil in 2002, he has demonstrated a light touch when it comes to economic stewardship, avoiding the populist impulses of leaders in Venezuela and Bolivia. Instead, he has fueled Brazil’s growth through a deft combination of respect for financial markets and targeted social programs, which are lifting millions out of poverty, said David Fleischer, a political analyst and emeritus professor at the University of Brasília. Ms. Sousa is one such beneficiary. Long famous for its unequal distribution of wealth, Brazil has shrunk its income gap by six percentage points since 2001, more than any other country in South America this decade, said Francisco Ferreira, a lead economist at the World Bank. While the top 10 percent of Brazil’s earners saw their cumulative income rise by 7 percent from 2001 to 2006, the bottom 10 percent shot up by 58 percent, according to Marcelo Côrtes Neri, the director of the Center for Social Policies at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Rio de Janeiro. But Brazil is also outspending most of its neighbors on social programs, and overall public spending continues to be nearly four times as high as what Mexico spends as a percentage of its gross national product, Mr. Ferreira said.
At Casas Bahia, a modestly priced Brazilian furniture-store chain, the number of customers buying items on installment nearly tripled to 29.3 million from 2002 to 2007, said Sônia Mitaini, a company spokeswoman. Riding a Wave of Growth - continued: Other signs of new wealth abound. In Macaé, an oil boomtown near Rio de Janeiro, contractors are racing to finish new shopping malls and luxury housing to keep up with demand from oil-service firms. At a port in Angra dos Reis, a town known for its spectacular islands, some 25,000 workers have found jobs building oil platforms. Petrobras, Brazil’s national oil company, shocked the oil world in November when it announced that its Tupi deepwater field offshore of Rio de Janeiro could hold five billion to eight billion barrels of oil. Analysts think there could be billions of barrels more in surrounding areas. While the oil will be expensive and complicated to extract, Petrobras has said it expects to be producing up to 100,000 barrels a day from Tupi by 2010, and hopes to produce up to a million barrels a day in about a decade. The new oil plays are setting off an investment boom in Rio de Janeiro, with an estimated $67.6 billion expected to flow into the state by 2010, according to the Rio de Janeiro State Federation of Industries, an industry group. Petrobras alone expects to invest $40.5 billion by 2012. Some economists say a slowdown in the rest of the world’s economy, especially in Asia, which is soaking up much of Brazil’s exports of soybeans and iron ore, could crimp growth here. “But that probability is small,” said Alfredo Coutiño, the senior economist for Latin America for Moody’s Economy.com.
The number of Brazilians with liquid fortunes exceeding $1 million grew by 19 percent last year, third behind China and India, according to a survey by Merrill Lynch and Capgemini.
Many families have bridged the gap to the middle class by using Bolsa Familia to meet basic needs, and then applying for small loans to start businesses and escape the informal economy. That is what Maria Auxiliadora Sampaio and her husband did in Fortaleza, a coastal city of 2.4 million people. They were receiving Bolsa Familia payments of about $30 a month, which they used to support their three children. Then, two years ago, Ms. Sampaio used a microloan of about $190 to buy nail polish and kick-start her manicure business, which she runs from home. Today she is making around $70 a day — about four minimum salaries per month, she said. With her next loan she plans to put about $140 toward a stove to sterilize nail clippers, which today she does with hot water. The fruits of her new business have allowed the couple to retile their house and buy a television and a cellphone. This month her husband, who works at a Cachaça factory, was able to realize a dream: to buy a drum set. He plans to use it in a band that plays forró, a traditional music in the northeast. “We always ate and paid bills, but he waited and waited,” and finally bought the set for about $780, she said. “I feel like we are part of this group of people that are coming up in the world,” said Ms. Sampaio, 28. “When you don’t have anything, when you don’t have a profession, don’t have the means to live, you are no one, you are a mosquito. I was nothing. Today, I am in heaven.” Permalink | ### |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on July 25th, 2008
Writes for the Center for Hemispheric Affairs - COHA - Research Associate Raylsiyaly Rivero. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez met on July 22, 2008 in Moscow with his Russian counterparts President Dimitri Medvédev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. They seemed to enjoy every moment of the occasion, even though it was rather short when it came to hard developments. The encounter was arranged to formalize a military and defense alliance between the two countries, dubbed the “Alianza Estratégica.” The three leaders placed great stress on the importance of the meeting in which trade deals, arms sales, coordinated energy policies and the expansion of trade and joint financial services were achieved between the two nations. By 2007, bilateral trade between Russia and Venezuela had reached 1 billion dollars and is now likely to expand exponentially. The Russian and Venezuelan leaders carried out negotiations for the acquisition of a large number of army tanks, which are viewed by the Venezuelan high command as being indispensable to the modernization of the country’s armed forces. Some Washington insiders believe that Caracas might be considering the purchase of the first of what could be several Russian submarines, as well as a number of AN-74 military transport aircrafts, while at the same time continuing with talks about importing a Kalashnikov rapid firing weapons’ assembly factory scheduled to be put into operation in Venezuela. Venezuelan-Russian Relationship Thickens The military relationship established between Venezuela and Russia raises questions concerning Chávez’s goal of achieving peace throughout Latin America, while he remains quite agitated over what he considers to be Washington’s hostile intentions towards his left-leaning government. The consolidation of the country’s military forces is being pursued relentlessly by Venezuela’s high command, and the process plays an important role in the Venezuelan president’s aspiration to spearhead the regional integration movement of like-minded societies, now being witnessed throughout northern South America. The Implications of Moscow’s Parachuting into Latin American Diplomacy The new fact of life facing Washington is that Russia will be a growing factor when it comes to relating to the left leaning governments in the region, who are seeking autonomy from U.S. policy makers, which Washington is sure to deem dangerous, but which Moscow considers just fine. July 23, 20 Permalink | ### |
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on July 24th, 2008 July 23, 2008, The Wall Street Journal reports correctly from Washington DC that in Congressional Hearings in testimony, it became known that The White House, that is President George W. Bush himself, interfered with the decision making process by the Administrator of the EPA when it came to do something about the subject of Climate Change. This by actually stopping him from allowing the State of California to do the right things that the US President refuses to do. This was also accompanied by misrepresentations from the White House and from the Administrator himself, in other Congressional testimonies. It is easy to label this sort of activity - but we will refrain from doing so. Our target in this posting is the WSJ itself. While the news section of the paper, presented the above information, and it also presented the information that a bill to Curb Energy Speculation is Advancing in the Senate, it was one “Senior Editorial Writer at the WSJ, Based in Washington” by the name of Colin Levy, that went out for a killing job on Former Vice president Al Gore who stated correctly that when you are in a climate hole you stop digging for more oil. Ms. Levy wants to impress on us that “High Oil Prices Make The Green Agenda Harder To Swallow.” But this is little less then pouring more fuel on the fire - the whole point is that the fact that energy has become more expensive is of help to those that instigate the nee to do something in order to rid the world of its addiction to oil. Ms. Levy writes the EXTREME STUPIDITY that “Prices Have Fallen Since President Bush Announced His Support For More Drilling.” We think that the WSJ is totally discrediting itself by letting lose this sort of people running lose with political killer hatchets in its editorial room. Who will give any credibility to the paper, even though that it has sometimes good coverage in its News Department. We guess that they understand that news is a competitive business so they better run that function right. But then seemingly they believe that interpreting the news you do on what you think is well;come by this or other political interest - so they shoot themselves in the feet. You see, business people want real predictions of what might happen economically. They like to get something that is more then wishful thinking. So, if this is the case, they are fully right to move over to the Financial Times in order to get interpretations of US news in a global context - plain opinion - no bamboozle. Other interesting news of the day, dealing with oil and oil-money with impact on what goes on indeed: In Moscow, Mr. Chavez has just signed agreements with three Russian companies to work on the huge Orinoco belt of heavy crudes. The companies are: Gazprom, Lukoil, and the Anglo-Russian joint venture TNK-BP in which the US Chevron was not able to get a foothold. Israeli refiners Alon and Delek have moved into the US - specially interesting is Alon USA Energy Inc. that operates now two refineries that will be able to use successfully heavier crudes and produce also asphalt. In effect they fortify their asphalt by incorporating material from ground up old tires. This is a step towards a more environmentally favorable product. As I said, addressing money issues - look at General Electric entering in an Abu Dhabi partnership for $8 Billion. Now, is Ms. Levy blind to the fact that some in the US will connect this also to the money wasted on oil - the reason for the real US slumping economy? There will be probably more of a reaction to the loss of US assets to the Middle East Oil States then to the red herring of doubt about the CO2 emissions. Let her come to New York and ask what people thought of the sale of the Chrysler building? That was just real estate - now we talk about airplane engines.
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on July 21st, 2008
The plan is part of the government’s efforts to strengthen Japan’s energy security through the diversification of crude oil suppliers. Japan currently depends on the Middle East for 90 percent of its crude oil imports.
Senior officials at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will visit Venezuela as early as next month to hold final negotiations with Petroleos de Venezuela, the sources said. Venezuela has the world’s sixth-largest oil deposits. ——– We have some special interest in this area as years ago, being part of the UNITAR Center for Heavy Crudes and Tar Sands, we were involved in exchanges between Venezuela, a member of OPEC, and Canada, a country with strong ties to the US, in what regards the development of technology for refining heavy crudes. The most interesting part in this was that the Arab States allowed the UN to enter this partnership under the terms that the heavy crudes are not oil and can be viewed as a new source of energy. this approach allowed the UN to go for the now infamous Nairobi conference of 1981 that was titled the UN Conference on NEW ANS RENEWABLE SOURCES OF ENERGY that could thus deal with heavy crudes, tar sands and oil shales, in addition to the first UN shot at renewables. The conference is considered as infamous because it was not allowed to look at energy needs - so it was quite useless as a development conference and one could try to be kind to the UN by saying it was sort of a science promoting event masquerading as an energy event. As everything else that the UN establishes, this conference left behind a Secretariat that continued to bamboozle the energy topics at the UN for another two decades, before it was retired, but yet no real energy department was created in its place. Energy at the Islamic powered UN is still a main taboo. We write this, because I was involved in writing the issue pages on oil shales and tar sands for the Nairobi Conference under a UN contract - my actual report was then replaced by a Russian product brought over from Moscow by the Russian member of the conference stirring committee. I found then my usefulness in Nairobi better served by accepting to organize and chair the energy session of the NGOs in the name of the Society for International Development. Oh well - just memories … Permalink | |