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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 26th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

from:   CPA <ipa@wmo.int>
date    Fri, Feb 26, 2010 at 5:26 AM
subject    High-Level Task Force for Climate Services Starts Work at WMO

The first meeting of the High-Level Taskforce for climate services selected Jan Egeland of Norway and Mahmoud Abu-Zeid of Egypt as co-chairs.  The High Level Taskforce of independent advisers, which the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Michel Jarraud, was requested by a decision of the World Climate Conference-3 to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), is meeting on 25-26 February, at the WMO Headquarters in Geneva.

Please find attached the press release “High-Level Task Force for Climate Services Starts Work at WMO”.

More information: www.wmo.int

Best regards,

Communications and Public Affairs
Tel: + 41 22 730 83 14
Fax: + 41 22 730 80 27

——————————-

Jan Egeland is an excellent choice – we know him from the UN where he had many past involvements and we know for shure that he was one of those that when in Sudan on efforts regarding Darfur, was ready to look at climate change impact on the evolving atrocities.   was the United Nations Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator from June 2003 to December 2006 under UN  Secretary-General Kofi Annan. He traveled extensively, drawing attention to humanitarian emergencies.

In UN fashion – he was balanced out with a representative of the Arab world who has a background in water engineering – so at least there will be a link of climate change and growing water shortage in arid and semi-arid lands. Abu-Zeid is Egyptian Water Minister active on global water problems and has Saudi Arabian support.

http://engineering.ucdavis.edu/pages/about/profiles/abu-zeid.html

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 26th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

UNEP NEWS

World Environment Ministers Signal Resolve to Realize Sustainable Development.

Accelerating a Green Economy to Cooperative Action to Protect Human Health and Combat Climate Change Gets Support at Bali Meeting.

11 th Special Session of the UN Environment Programme’s Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum

Bali, 26 February 2010 – In the first landmark Declaration issued by ministers of the environment in a decade, Governments pledged to step up the global response to the major environmental and sustainability challenges of this generation.

The wide-ranging Nusa Dua Declaration, agreed today in the closing session of the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum, underlines the vital importance of biodiversity, the urgent need to combat climate change and work towards a good outcome in Mexico later in the year and the key opportunities from accelerating a transition to a low-carbon resource-efficient Green Economy.

The statement also highlights the need to improve the overall management of the global environment, accepting that that “governance architecture” has in many ways become too complex and fragmented.

An important step forward was made earlier in the week in the areas of chemicals, hazardous wastes and human health. Governments agreed at an Extraordinary Meeting to have more cooperative action by the three relevant treaties–the Basel , Rotterdam and Stockholm Conventions — as a first step to boosting their delivery within countries.

Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director, said: “The ministers responsible for the environment, meeting just over a month after the climate change conference in Copenhagen , have spoken with a clear, united and unequivocal voice.”

“Faced with the continued erosion of the natural environment, the persistent and emerging challenges of chemical pollution and wastes and the overarching challenge of issues such as climate change, the status quo is not an option and change is urgently needed”, he added.

“This change starts with recognition that the way we are managing the environmental dimension of sustainable development is currently too complex and fragmented. Change is needed here and the ministers signaled their determination to realize this through a political process”, said Mr. Steiner.

“But the ministers also recognized that action towards a Green Economy –one able to meet multiple challenges and seize multiple opportunities– is taking route in economies across the globe. Accelerating this is a key element of the Nusa Dua Declaration and one that can direct future action towards realizing the kinds of transitions needed on a planet of 6 billion people, rising to 9 billion by 2050”, he added.

The Declaration, the first by world environment ministers since they met in Malmö , Sweden in 2000, will be transmitted to the UN General Assembly later this year.

There Governments will begin preparations for a landmark conference in Brazil , known as ” Rio plus 20″.

“Rio plus 20″ comes two decades after the first Rio Earth Summit, which gave birth to many of the key treaties, ranging from climate change to biodiversity, which to date   have defined the international response to environmental challenges.

Green Economy
Case studies, illuminating the multiple benefits of a Green Economy, were presented to delegates in advance of a landmark Green Economy report to be released later this year.

Uganda
The area of land under organic agriculture has risen from 185,000 hectares in 2004 to close to 300,000 hectares in 2008, with a 360 per cent rise in the number of farmers engaged in the sector – from 45,000 certified farmers to 207,000.
Certified organic exports have risen from US$3.7 million in 2003-2004 to US$22.8 million in 2007-2008.

The country is also contributing to combating climate change. C02 emissions per hectare are up to 68 per cent less than on conventionally farmed land, with studies indicating that organic fields sequester 3-8 tonnes more carbon per hectare.


China
More than 10 per cent of Chinese households rely on the sun to heat their water, with more than 40 million solar water-heating systems in place.
The renewable energy sector as a whole generates output worth US$17 billion and employs 1 million workers, of which 600,000 are employed in solar thermal panel making and installing products, such as solar water heaters.

The warm water from solar water heaters is also reducing rheumatoid arthritis among women as they now have hot water for laundry and dishwashing done by hand instead of only cold water.


Brazil
The city of Curitiba has, through sustainable urban planning and transport, cut per capita loss from severe congestion. It is about 6.7 and 11 times less than per capita losses in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo .
In 2002, Curitiba ’s annual fuel losses from severe traffic congestion equaled R$1.98 million (US$930,000). On per capita terms, this loss is about 13 times and 4.3 times less than those in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro .

Curitiba ’s fuel usage is also 30 per cent lower than in Brazil ’s other major cities.
Other Highlights of the UNEP GC/GMEF

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
The delegates were addressed by Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the IPCC which is co- hosted by UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Ministers reaffirmed the central importance of the IPCC and the importance of sound science upon which to base a response to climate change.

However, as a result of recent criticism of the IPCC and some key errors in the body’s Fourth Assessment Report, several Governments called for an independent review of the IPCC.

Full details of the review and its scope will be announced next week with the report to be presented to the IPCC Plenary taking place in the Republic of Korea in October.

Several key decisions were adopted, including ones on oceans put forward by the Government of Indonesia and strengthening the environment via the Environment Management Group which UNEP hosts.

Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
Many experts believe a science panel or platform for biodiversity and ecosystems is needed to assist Governments in combating the erosion of plants and animals and ecosystems such as forests, freshwaters and soils.

Governments agreed to a final meeting in June 2010, halfway through the UN’s International Year of Biodiversity, to decide whether to establish such a body.

Haiti
Delegates also backed UNEP’s support to Haiti in the wake of the devastating earthquake of 12 January 2010 and called on the organization to assist the UN country team to incorporate environmental issues in the rehabilitation and reconstruction and restoration phases.

Gaza{ without Arab world politics there is no meeting at a  UN enclave . }
Delegates asked UNEP to assist in implementing recommendations from its environmental assessment of the Gaza Strip compiled following the escalation of hostilities in December 2008 through to January 2009.
The assessment covers issues such as solid waste management, pollution and the acute decline of Gaza ’s underground water supplies.

——————————————–
For the full list of decisions and the full text of the Nusa Dua Declaration please go to http://www.unep.org/gc/gcss-xi/

For more information, please contact:
Nick Nuttall, Spokesperson/ Head of Media, Office of the Executive Director, UNEP, Tel: +254-733-632-755, E-mail:  nick.nuttall at unep.org

Jim Sniffen
Programme Officer
UN Environment Programme
New York
tel: +1-212-963-8094/8210
 info at nyo.unep.org
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Posted in Global Warming issues, Nairobi, Reporting From the UN Headquarters in New York, UN Commission on Sustainable Development

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 23rd, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

A SPECIALIZED AGENCY OF THE UNITED NATIONS

___________________________________________

INVITATION TO THE MEDIA


WMO PRESS CONFERENCE
Date and time:          Friday 26 February, 11:45 am

Subject: First meeting of the High-Level Taskforce for the Global Framework for   Climate Services

Speakers:  Mr Michel Jarraud, WMO Secretary-General, with Members from the High-Level Taskforce

Venue: WMO Headquarters, Room B

7 bis, Avenue de la Paix, Geneva, Switzerland

BACKGROUND:
In September 2009, World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) decided to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services to “strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services”. Terms of reference were recently approved, and the composition of a High-Level Taskforce of independent advisers endorsed. On 25-26 February, the Taskforce will meet for the first time in Geneva, at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

HIGH-LEVEL TASKFORCE
Joaquim Chissano (Mozambique)
Jan Egeland (Norway)
Angus Friday (Grenada)
Eugenia Kalnay (Ms) (Argentina/USA)
Ricardo Lagos (Chile)
Julia Marton-Lefevre (Ms) (Hungary/France/USA)
Khotso Mokhele (South Africa)
Chiaki Mukai (Ms) (Japan)
Cristina Narbona Ruiz (Ms) (Spain)
Rajendra Singh Paroda (India)
Qin Dahe (China)
Emil Salim (Indonesia)
Mahmoud Abu-Zeid (Egypt)
Fiame Naomi Mata’afa (Ms) (Samoa)

For more information, including biographies: http://www.wmo.int/hlt-gfcs/index_en.htm…

————————

MEDIA ACCREDITATION

Journalists not accredited to the Palais des Nations, who wish to participate in the press conference, are encouraged to send a request to Gaëlle Sévenier, WMO Press Officer ( gsevenier at wmo.int) prior to 25 February 2010.

WMO is the United Nations’ authoritative voice on weather, climate and water

For more information please contact:  Communications and Public Affairs Office, WMO
Ms Carine Richard-Van Maele, Chief, Tel: +41 (0)22 730 83 15, E-mail:  cpa at wmo.int,
Ms Gaëlle Sévenier, Press Officer, Tel: +41 (0) 22 730 84 17, E-mail:  gsevenier at wmo.int

Internet website: http://www.wmo.int

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 21st, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

The Bloom Box: An Energy Breakthrough?

60 Minutes: First Customers Says Energy Machine Works And Saves Money.
CBS NEWS

CREATED: 02/18/2010 05:03:11 PM PST

(CBS)   For the past year and a half, several large California corporations have been secretly testing the “Bloom Box,” a potentially revolutionary fuel-cell system. Confirming this for the first time, several of the companies report this system is a more efficient, clean, and cost effective way to get electricity than off the power grid.

Lesley Stahl and “60 Minutes” cameras get the first look inside the secretive California company, just days before the Bloom Energy official launch, scheduled for next Wednesday (Feb. 24).

Stahl’s report will be broadcast this Sunday, Feb. 21, at 7 p.m. ET/PT.

John Donahoe, CEO of E-bay, confirms Bloom Boxes were installed at his corporate campus nine months ago. The company says the boxes already saved them over $100,000 in electricity bills. “It’s been very successful thus far. [The Bloom Boxes] have done what they said they would do,” says Donahoe. The five boxes are able to produce five times as much electricity as the 3,248 solar panels that E-bay installed on its campus roofs, says the CEO. “The footprint for Bloom is much more efficient,” he tells Stahl.

Google, FedEx, Staples and Walmart are among the first 20 clients Bloom is confirming.

Stahl is the first journalist to be allowed into the Bloom Energy lab and factory where currently one box a day is built. The boxes create electricity by a chemical process that utilizes oxygen and fuel, but involves no combustion.
Advertisement

Bloom’s founder and CEO, K.R. Sridhar, insists all the materials in the box are cheap and available in abundance. Bloom says each large box – which can power about 100 homes – currently sells for $700-800,000. They hope within five to 10 years to roll out a smaller home version for about $3,000 a unit.

Bloom Energy was the first clean energy start-up Kleiner-Perkins, the Silicon Valley venture capital firm, invested in. They currently invest in about 50 clean tech companies. Sridhar confirms the company has received over $400 million, making it one of the most expensive startups in history. The majority of that comes from Kleiner Perkins.

John Doerr, the Kleiner Perkins partner who invested in Bloom, has high hopes. “The Bloom Box is intended to replace the [electric power] grid for its customer,” says Doerr. He thinks existing utility companies should not be threatened or have a problem with Bloom Energy. “The utility companies will see this as a solution.All they need to do is buy Bloom Boxes, put them in the substation for the neighborhood and sell that electricity,” he says.

To contact the Newsroom, call 907-274-1111.

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 20th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Yvo de Boer, the new free man, gives  to The Financial Times his first interview as elder statesman – and we gleaned three elements in his statement as his very balanced views after 20 years of experience with the climate international problematics.

(1) The Copenhagen non-binding outcome has nevertheless provided us with a good basis for a treaty.

It Copenhagen accord has for the first time drown from from both – rich and poor countries pledges to limit their  GHG emissions, and promised financial assistance from the developed to the developing world to do so. (we did in effect earlier today post already such an agreement between Japan and Kenya.)

(2) There is no practical hope that a binding treaty that has both form and content – can be signed at the meeting of December 2010 in Mexico. (Mr. de Boer has removed the smiley face that the UNSG has imposed on him these last two years)

(3) While governments provide the necessary policy framework for addressing climate change, the real solutions must come from business. As such there are two stages in the process:

(a) Governments must use Taxes or a Cap & Trade methodology to limit emissions.  No corporation can justify the investment required to reduce their carbon intensity without confidence that carbon emissions will become and remain much costlier than today, with few loopholes for those unwilling to pay. Only government can provide that predictability. As we see it today – the EU failed in its effort because of the permit system that allowed for too many permits to float around, and for the US – even the bill that is stalled in Congress is useless as it was emasculated by emission permits giveaways to favored sectors. (what he is saying is what we say all the time – government is there in order to govern – without this nothing logical will evolve from plain empty handed competition.)

(b) If governments dared to embark on real efforts to limit emissions – as long as it is more then just a token idea – the private sector would take it in its stride, it would even thrive, especially the low-carbon companies and sectors that would emerge to replace those unable to kick the carbon habit.

———

We knew already that Yvo de Boer will join KPMG consulting. We know that he is not the first to jump the public policy wagon for the private sector. Al Gore, former US Vice President and father of The Inconvenient Truth” has shown the way He is doing very well – thank you – in the corporate world. We know of people that were formerly with Greenpeace that make now a good living supporting renewable energy corporations.

What we did not know before this interview is that in the academic world, Mr. de Boer chose Yale University and the University of Utrecht that will benefit from his direct involvement.

———

Strange remarks we saw from some that did very little to help the climate cause earlier, but now look down at Mr. de Boer as if he were a traitor to that lost cause to which they did not put their honest heart earlier. Specifically we found the mention to Paul Bledsoe the policy director at the Washington – US National Commission on Energy Policy and former White House adviser.

He said: “This resignation is simply dispiriting – if someone as politically adept, dedicated and charismatic as Yvo de Boer can’t bring the UN process to heel, then the process is broken and has to be reformed.” That is true but disingenuous – why did he not work harder at creating the US government solution that could have been helpful to that UN process? After all, there were times that even the UN was trying to achieve climate goals. On the other hand, the fact that BP and ConocoPhillips walked out from a business pro-climate group this week, came about because they found that the White House will subsidize nuclear power so the price of energy stays low – but oil companies are not electric utilities to be subsidized under this plan – so why should they be part of a program that can only harm them. This was clearly a give-away to the nuclear lobby on the back of the oil lobby – and thus two out of the only three progressive oil companies, that dream of becoming energy companies, found it completely irrational of participating in the backing of an Administration that did not think through all aspects of the issues.

Now, just two nights ago, at a meeting at a top University here, I saw people from Academia and Businesses (the AB of the process) trying to spread the word about what they are doing, but did also not understand the basic policy logic on which they were trying to sell – but on this on a different posting. Here it will suffice to say that we will look forward at what Mr. de Boer will do for Yale University with the strong hope that from now on he will be ready to stand up for what he believes, without bowing to UN or business interests that will flock on him like vultures trying to push him in their preferred directions. We had our difficulty with his bowing to the UN bosses, but we expect to see no future problem in his AB role.

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 19th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

from: Anna Karklina

FIELD’s new briefing note entitled ‘Adaptation under the Copenhagen Accord’ is now available in PDF at

http://www.field.org.uk/highlights/adaptation-copenhagen-accord.

The note focuses specifically on the treatment of adaptation in the political declaration known as the Copenhagen Accord – the most discussed outcome of the December 2009 Copenhagen climate change conference.

?

The FIELD Team

The Foundation for International Environmental Law ans Development.

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Posted in Copenhagen COP15, Global Warming issues, Green is Possible, Reporting From the UN Headquarters in New York, United Kingdom

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 19th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

The first wave of reporting was only  a rewrite of the UNFCCC Press release. Then came some further wording from an AP interview. Now we see the start of thinking journalism.

The bottom line seems to be: “Bickering at Copenhagen convinced many countries that the UN negotiating process must be reformed, and that agreement might be sought in other forums.” So, here goes that proverbial 192 UN Member States list or the 193 figure that appears when the UNFCCC is mentioned. We never understood why that discrepancy and assumed the fault is with us for not knowing where to put the EU, Taiwan, the Vatican, Puerto Rico, Palestine … and some other such preferred UN preoccupations.

Fiona Harvey of the Financial Times quotes an official of a developed country: &quot;You have to wonder whether you could get moremovement by working in smaller groups.&quot; If you want to get results indeed – you must bring together the World’s biggest GHG emitters.

The New York City newspapers – The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal went over to the UN and got hold of Janos Pasztor, the potentially homeless head of the “in-Headquarter-house” climate-change team-head for UNSG Ban Ki-moon.

{On “homeless” – As we reported earlier: “The UN’s and Ban’s climate unit under Janos Pasztor, which was told there was no room for it in the UN’s Temporary North Lawn Conference Building where Ban has his office, is now looking at space in the Alcoa Building on 48th Street, Inner City Press is told. For now, they are left behind in the nearly empty UN skyscraper where asbestos removal has already begun.”}

According to the WSJ – Janos Pasztor said: “It does not matter what a senior UN civil servant does, ultimately – if governments are not ready to sign off on an agreement, then they will not sign off on an agreement;” Mr. Pasztor said that Mr. de Boer called Mr. Ban “two days ago;” to inform him of the decision. Mr. de Boer’s four-years appointment was going till September and he could have asked Mr. Ban to appoint him for another term, but we never came to that point, he said. Asked whether Mr. Ban would have reappointed Mr. de Boer, Mr. Pasztor said: ‘That we don’t know.”

Mr. Pasztor said further that Mr. Ban will begin looking for a successor for Mr. de Boer “extremely quickly;” he does not know who might be considered.

Neil MacFarquhar and John M. Broder ot the NYT did some further inquiries outside the UN.

Mark Kenber, the policy director for the Climate Group, an international organization involving industry that wants to see a climate agreement, said that it is probably the right time to get a fresh face in. It was a grueling two years of negotiations and a new face would re-spark the process.

Michael A. Levi, the climate change expert at the Council on Foreign Relations said that Yvo de Boer has put in a lot of time towards a very well-defined end, and the fact he resigns means that he did not see potential success on the horizon of COP 16, this year. Had he seen the possibility that there might be a positive outcome before the end of the year, he would have stuck with it so he would get credit for his work.

Others faulted the UN team for not having moved faster to find areas where agreement among those 190+ participating member states at Copenhagen, such as the preservation of rainforests, could have been agreed upon in smaller fora first. Another such topic could have been the taxing of livestock emissions that is being described in today’s FT that says FAO is ready to help review the meat industry.

So, after 48 hours since Yvo de Boer’s resignation, provided that the UN does not rush in with a Ban Ki-moon new appointment, but is ready to listen to possible new opportunities, this might turn out as a blessing in disguise – an opening for change – an actual new opportunity.

Some question the UNFCCC process itself – but we think that this is rather too much. It does not remember that the UNFCCC was born in Rio de Janeiro in the 1992 UNCED Conference – just because there was no agreement to have a full convention like it was the case with Biodiversity and in regard to Arid and Semi-Arid lands and Desertification.

Decreasing the size of the negotiation table, by bringing the number of participants down to those that are the most serious polluters, with delegations present from groups most seriously affected, could be more fit to help bring about the needed agreements.

————-

And From Canada – the host for the 2010 meetings of the G8 and G20:

from Shawn McCarthy, Ottawa — From Friday’s Globe and Mail reporting.
Published on Thursday, Feb. 18, 2010
Mr. de Boer – who had worked tirelessly to reach a consensus at Copenhagen – said he was depressed for weeks after the summit ended with a vague, non-binding agreement among major emitters known as the Copenhagen Accord. Angry recriminations resulted from Copenhagen’s failure to produce a more substantial document, and the refusal of the participants to unanimously endorse even the more modest pact.

Mr. de Boer’s successor – to be appointed by UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon – will not only have to reinvigorate the effort to achieve a treaty, he will need to revisit the UN process itself. The requirement for consensus may make it impossible to reach an accord in Mexico, even in the unlikely event that an agreement can be achieved among major emitters. Some critics suggest Mr. de Boer was part of the problem – bringing a rigid, bureaucratic approach to the international talks.

“I never had the sense that we were dealing with a person of vision, a person who could see the changes that were necessary in the international system to get a climate-change agreement,” said Robert Page, chairman of Canada’s National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy.

Mr. Robert Page suggested the new UNFCCC executive director will likely have to come from a major developing country – such as Brazil – and be committed to reforming the UN process.

In Denmark, a small group of countries blocked the conference as a whole from adopting the Copenhagen Accord, which had been brokered at the 11th hour by U.S. President Barack Obama.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon is urging a reform that would see agreement based on a 75-per-cent majority, rather than unanimity. The Catch-22: The UN requires consensus to change the voting rules.

“As far as the process goes, we’re in a lot of trouble,” said John Drexhage, climate-change director for the Winnipeg-based International Institute for Sustainable Development and former Canadian negotiator.

“We need to have very realistic expectations for Mexico. I think it would be a mistake to push for a legally binding comprehensive agreement by Mexico. That’s just not going to happen with the current state of affairs.”

Indeed, Mr. Drexhage said Mr. de Boer’s successor faces a convergence of factors that will make it extremely difficult to regain momentum for the international talks.

Public skepticism about the dangers posed by climate change has risen, fuelled by incidents in which a few researchers manipulated data to get desired results, and the inclusion of non-scientific information in the report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Emerging economies like Brazil, South Africa, India and China – the so-called BASIC group – have made clear they will not subject their emission-reduction policies to international verification. Any commitments they have made are conditional on the developed world – notably the United States – taking strong action, and delivering promised financing to the developing world.

Mr. Obama faces major hurdles in getting a climate bill passed in Congress this year, raising questions about his administration’s commitment to reduce emissions by 17 per cent from 2005 levels by 2020. And as the United States goes, so goes Canada.

World leaders have a couple of opportunities to advance the broad commitments of the Copenhagen Accord into a more robust agreement, including a May meeting in Bonn, Germany, and the Group of Eight/Group of 20 summits to be hosted by Prime Minister Stephen Harper this summer.

The G8 and G20 can deliver progress – especially the G20, which includes China, India, Brazil and Mexico. But it remains unclear whether Mr. Harper, who is hosting the meetings and influences the agendas, will make climate change a priority.

———–
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/20…


Yvo de Boer’s successor has big footprints to fill: The former head of the UN’s climate body commanded great respect in a near-impossible job, but in the end, he failed. His successor must not.

Because De Boer took over from another Dutchman in 2006, there will be strong pressure on the UN to choose his successor from a developing country. “I would like to see someone from a developing country who can negotiate with those countries,” Seb Walhain, the head of environmental markets at Fortis Netherlands, told Reuters. Because so much is at stake and the talks are at such an advanced stage, the appointment is likely to be fiercely contested.

Countries will want an early decision, but the UN’s selection process is laborious. A successor is likely to be chosen from within the UN system, though there will be few people considered diplomatically acceptable or authoritative enough to resist world leaders and muscle though an agreement acceptable to all.

De Boer’s successor’s first tasks will be to keep the US aboard the negotiations and to clear up the vexed question of the legal status of the Copenhagen accord, the deal struck at Copenhagen by a small group but not endorsed by a majority of countries.

Get it right, and the new head of the UNFCCC will be celebrated as the man or woman who steered the whole world to a historic agreement that could save the planet from calamitous climate change. Get it wrong, and negotiations could be set back a decade.

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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 19th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

« Rencontre Régionale: Adaptation aux changements climatiques au Maghreb: Bilan et Perspectives »

from: Prof. Dr. Med-Saïd KARROUK to African
Feb 14, 2010
from  KarroukSaid at yahoo.com

Le Comité National IGBP, et l’Université Hassan II, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca (Maroc) – Avec le soutien du programme ACCA du CRDI et du DFID

Organisent :

La « Rencontre Régionale: Adaptation aux changements climatiques au Maghreb:
Bilan et Perspectives »

Le 16 et 17 mars 2010, FLSH Ben M’Sick, Casablanca

Préambule :

En réponse aux défis environnementaux et socio-économiques majeurs liés aux changements climatiques, placés actuellement au cœur de l’ordre du jour des grandes réunions internationales, et dans la perspective d’une contribution à l’effort mondial de sensibilisation sur les enjeux du changement du climat, que cette rencontre sur l’adaptation aux changements climatiques au Maghreb est organisée, à laquelle seront invitées des personnalités de très haut niveau et d’éminents scientifiques et experts. D’autre part, un plan d’action concret sera proposé pour la mise en place de projets prioritaires d’adaptation pour les gouvernements, les entreprises et la société civile.

Ceci permettra en même temps d’imprimer une dynamique nouvelle aux actions jusqu’ici timides des pays maghrébins sur le plan international dans le domaine des changements climatiques.

La diffusion de l’information recueillie durant cette conférence sera effectuée par le réseau « ClimDev » qui desserve plus de 10 000 lecteurs francophones à travers le monde. A cela s’ajoutera la publication des actes de la conférence qui seront adressés aux différents acteurs visés par la conférence : les décideurs, les scientifiques, les ONG, …etc.

Objectifs de la rencontre :

Cette rencontre a trois objectifs :
Renforcer la capacité des scientifiques, des organisations, des décideurs et d’autres intervenants à contribuer à l’adaptation aux changements climatiques ;
Susciter une meilleure compréhension des conclusions des scientifiques et des organismes de recherche en ce qui concerne la variabilité du climat et les changements climatiques ;
Fournir aux concepteurs de politiques des données scientifiques de bonne qualité.

Les axes de cette rencontre sont les suivants :
·         L’adaptation de la sécurité environnementale au Maghreb (extrêmes thermiques, ressources en eau, sécheresse, inondations, désertification, feux de forêts, érosion littorale et continentale, santé, biodiversité)
·         L’adaptation de la sécurité alimentaire au Maghreb (agriculture : contraintes spatiales, des essences, la nouvelle distribution agricole régionale, etc),
·         L’adaptation de la sécurité énergétique au Maghreb (efficacité énergétique, énergie renouvelables, activités socio économiques, etc)
·         Réalité de l’adaptation aux pays du Maghreb ; états des lieux : contraintes et défis

Enjeux :

Gravement préoccupés par la vulnérabilité des systèmes socioéconomiques et de production du Maghreb au changement climatique et aux faibles capacités de riposte de la région, les décideurs politiques ont retenu le changement climatique comme l’une des préoccupations prioritaires et ont lancé un appel de coopérations aux partenaires pour appuyer leurs pays et les communautés économiques régionales afin qu’ils puissent intégrer de façon efficace la problématique du changement climatique dans leurs plans de développement.

Les négociations actuelles sur le changement climatique recherchent un nouvel élan pour l’après 2012 qui prendrait en compte les leçons du Protocole de Kyoto et la nécessaire convergence des priorités des diverses Parties. Dans cette perspective elles ont identifié quatre domaines-clés pour un dialogue de haut niveau, pour la coopération et l’action de long terme sur le changement climatique. Il s’agit :
du développement durable,
des technologies,
de l’adaptation et,
des opportunités de marché.

Le Maghreb se doit d’y inscrire sa spécificité et ses priorités et d’en saisir les opportunités pour son développement.

La Rencontre de Casablanca s’intègre dans cet élan et souhaite participer à l’aide à la décision pour une adaptation efficace par la recherche et le renforcement des capacités vis-à-vis de ce crucial problème, celui des Changements Climatiques au Maghreb.

Public cible :
Chercheurs
Décideurs politiques
ONG
Journalistes

Comité scientifique :

KARROUK Mohammed Saïd, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca
ALIFRIQUI Mohamed, Faculté des Sciences, Marrakech
BAHI Lahcen, Ecole Mohammadia d’Ingénieurs, Rabat
CHAKER Miloud, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines, Rabat
DAMNATI Brahim, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Tanger
EL ASSAAD Mohamed, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca
EL HAIBA Mahjoub, Faculté de Droit, Casablanca
EL HARRAK Ahmed, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca
EL HATTAB Ahmed, Ministère de l’Enseignement Supérieur, de la Formation des Cadres et de la Recherche Scientifique, Rabat
HEFNAOUI Ahmed, Faculté de Droit, Mohammedia
HENIA Latifa, FSHST, Université de Tunis
IRAQI Ahmed, Faculté de Médecine et de Pharmacie, Casablanca
LAOUINA Abdellah, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines, Rabat
MESSOULI Mohammed, Faculté des Sciences Semlalia, Marrakech
MOKSSIT Abdellah, Directeur de la Météorologie Nationale, Casablanca
MOUHIDDINE Mohamed, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca
ORBI Abdellatif, Institut National de la Recherche Halieutique, Casablanca
SALOUI Abdelmalik, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines, Mohammedia
YACOUBI-KHEBIZA Mohamed, Faculté des Sciences Semlalia, Marrakech

Comité d’organisation :

KARROUK Mohammed Saïd, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca
KADDOURI Abdelmajid, Doyen de la Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca,
GONEGAI Abdelkader, Vice Doyen de la Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca,
AIT KADIR Jamal, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
AKBLI Siham, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
ALLALI Asmaâ, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
BELOUARDA Youssef, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
CHAïR Majda, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
EL ALAMI Mohammad, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
EL ASSAAD Mohamed, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca,
EL HARRAK Ahmed, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca,
ELKHABBAZ Rachid, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
FATTAH Hind, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Doctorat ClimDev, Casablanca,
HABIL Kenza, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca,
HAJJI Ilham, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
HAJJOUBI Mohamed, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Doctorat ClimDev, Casablanca,
KIRD Hanane, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master GAT, Casablanca,
LAKHAL Fouad, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
MOUHIDDINE Mohamed, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca,
SAFARI Abdelati, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
SAHIB Zahra, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Master ClimDev, Casablanca,
SALLOK Amal, , Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Doctorat ClimDev, Casablanca,
SEFRI Youssef, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca,
ZOUHADI Abdellah, Faculté des Lettres et des Sciences Humaines Ben M’Sick, Casablanca,

Date-limite et directives pour soumettre des résumés :

Nous voudrions inviter les participants à présenter des communications orales et des affiches basés sur les thèmes de la rencontre, liés à la région du Maghreb. Les résumés doivent être soumis avant le 31 janvier 2010 par courriel, en anglais, français ou arabe.
Ils ne doivent pas excéder 300 mots, ni contenir des abréviations ou citations inconnues.
Le résumé doit être soumis dans le format « word » de Microsoft. Aucun autre format ne sera accepté
Le résumé doit être en format papier A4. Le titre en “gras” en utilisant une police « Arial » de 12 points.
Le titre doit être court, précis et reflète le sujet de la présentation ou de l’affiche.
Inclure les noms et les adresses de l’auteur(s), l’adresse complète, et adresses courriel de l’auteur(s) et de l’affiliation institutionnelle.

Aide aux participants :

La rencontre fournira l’aide de voyage, d’hébergement et de restauration, partielle ou totale, à un nombre limité de participants qui sont dans le besoin d’aide financière. On s’attend à ce que les participants puissent financer leurs propres dépenses et ou recevoir l’appui d’une autre organisation pour couvrir les frais.
La demande de subvention est conditionnée par l’acceptation d’une participation abstraite.
La priorité sera accordée à:
Jeunes scientifiques,
Etudiants doctorants,
Avocats stagiaires,
Educateurs en environnement,
Et régulateurs praticiens des pays du Maghreb,

Conditions :
Une lettre d’application qui inclut:
Titre(s) du résumé(s) soumis;
Description claire des activités professionnelles principales;
Description des participations récentes dans  des activités relatives aux changements climatique (conduite d’activités communautaires, recherche, éducation, politique et prise de décision);
Description claire des besoins d’aide financière, comprenant une évaluation de fonds demandés (c.-à-d., voyages par avion, hôtel, repas, etc.), exprimant également par qui seront couvert les frais complémentaires ;
Un curriculum vitae de pas plus de deux pages (CV) :
Des présentateurs des pays développés ne seront pas soutenus quoiqu’ils puissent être à l’origine résidants ou citoyens des pays en voie de développement.

Frais de participation :
Aucun frais de participation n’est exigé, cependant, la fiche d’inscription doit être adressée aux organisateurs dans les délais prévus.

Conférences invitées :
Des conférenciers de très haut niveau ont confirmé leur participation, et nous attendons la réponse des autres.

Programme Prévisionnelle :

Programme :
Mardi 16 mars 2010
Mercredi 17 mars 2010
08:00 – 09:00
Enregistrement

09:00 – 09:30
Plénière d’ouverture
conférence magistrale plénière Sessions 3
09:30 – 10:00
Session 3 : présentations orales
10:00-10:30
Pause café / Session poster
10:30-11:00
conférence magistrale plénière
Session 1
Session 3 : présentations orales
11:00 – 12:00
Session 1: présentations orales
Session 3 : présentations orales
12:00 – 13:00
Session 1: présentations orales
Session 3 : discussion ouverte
13:00 – 14:00
Pause Déjeuner
14:00 – 14:30
conférence magistrale plénière Session 2
Session de conclusions, recommandations et de clôture
14:30 – 15:30
Session 2: Présentations orales
15:30 – 16:00
Pause café / Session poster
16:00 – 16:30
Session 2: Présentations orales
Assemblée Générale :
CN IGBP et AMERCE
16:30 – 18:00
Sessions 1 & 2:
discussion ouverte

***************
Dr. Mohammed-Saïd KARROUK ??????? ???? ???? ????
Professeur de Climatologie ????? ??? ??????

Directeur Exécutif du Comité National IGBP (Global Change)
Université Hassan II, FLSH Ben M’Sick
Centre de Recherche de Climatologie (CEREC)
Master & Doctorat “Climat & Développement” (ClimDev)
BP 8220 Oasis, MA-20103 Casablanca (Maroc)
Tél: +212 661 156 051 Fax. +212 522 705 100
E-Mail:  KarroukSaid at Yahoo.Com
ou:  ClimDev.Maroc at Gmail.Com
ou:  CEREC at UnivH2M.Ac.Ma
Skype: ClimDev.Maroc

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 18th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Based on  the same Press Release from Bonn as we did, The Washington Post put on the following:

U.N. climate chief resigns: Yvo de Boer to quit in July.
 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con…

We bring here the Washington Post note and our further analysis at the end of it.

———–

By Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, February 18, 2010 10:12 AM

Yvo de Boer, the United Nations’ top climate official, announced Thursday that he would step down from his post in July to work in the private sector on environmental sustainability.

De Boer has overseen international climate talks for nearly four years, laboring without success to produce a legally binding pact to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

His departure comes amid uncertainty as to whether the 193 member nations of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change can produce a final treaty in Mexico in December.

“Working with my colleagues . . . in support of the climate change
negotiations has been a tremendous experience . . . but I believe the
time is ripe for me to take on a new challenge,” de Boer said in a
statement.

In recent weeks it has become unclear whether the Copenhagen accord,
the political agreement President Obama helped broker in December, can
serve as the basis for a lasting treaty. Although all major emitters
have reiterated their commitments to cut carbon over the next decade,
some key countries, such as China and India, have not formally signed
off on the accord.

In his statement, de Boer, a former government official in the
Netherlands, said governments must work with private businesses to
move forward in cutting emissions around the globe.

“I have always maintained that while governments provide the necessary
policy framework, the real solutions must come from business,” said de
Boer, who will join the consulting group KPMG as global adviser on
climate and sustainability and work with multiple universities. He
added, “The political commitment and sense of direction toward a
low-emissions world are overwhelming. This calls for new partnerships
with the business sector, and I now have the chance to help make this
happen.”

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which
issued de Boer’s statement, said that he would spend the next 3 1/2
months helping the agency prepare for the climate change conference in
Mexico late this year.

———-

What  is… KPMG?

KPMG is a really huge, long established accounting firm. It formed in 1987 following the merger between the accounting firms of Peat Marwick International (PMI) and Klynveld Main Goerdeler (KMG), however, the history of the combined business can be traced back to 1870.

What do the letters “KPMG” stand for?

The name of the firm, KPMG, is not actually an initialism. However, the roots of the name stem from four partners in the firms that merged to form KPMG.

The “K” in “KPMG” stands for “Klynveld”. In 1917, Piet Klynveld founded the accounting firm Klynveld Kraayenhof & Co. in Amsterdam.
The “P” stands for “Peat” after William Barclay Peat who founded the accounting firm William Barclay Peat & Co. in London in 1870.
The “M” stands for “Marwick”. With Roger Mitchell, in 1897 James Marwick founded the accounting firm Marwick, Mitchell & Co. in New York City.
Lastly but not least, the “G” is for “Goerdeler”. For many years Dr Reinhard Goerdeler was the chairman of Deutsche Treuhand-Gesellschaft and later became the chairman of KPMG. He is given credit for doing the groundwork for the KMG merger.

The final merger formed the firm in 1987, when Peat Marwick International (PMI) and Klynveld Main Goerdeler (KMG) merged as KPMG – and its global network of professional firms providing Audit, Tax, and Advisory services operates operate in 148 countries and has more than 113,000 professionals working in member firms around the world – one could easily say that this is a giant mini-UN multi-national on professional economic auditing issues. http://www.kpmg.com
 http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/WhoWeAre/L…

One can say that KPMG in many ways had its roots in the Netherlands.

* * *

KPMG – Corporate citizenship:

“This is an exciting and critical moment in the debate around the role of business in tackling the world’s most pressing problems. Problems such as climate change, food and water scarcity, poverty, security, development and economic growth.

“We have a clear vision of the role of KPMG firms. We believe we should use our skills and our resources to become fully involved in finding sustainable solutions to global and local issues, working alongside governments, civil society groups and international agencies. This vision is in line with our values — where we make a commitment to the communities in which we work.

“Locally, member firms around the world are using their skills to support local community initiatives and projects. Globally, we are using our capacity and capability as an international network to support the Millennium Development Goals, working strategically with governments, non-governmental organizations and charities to make an impact. To help combat the effects of climate change, we have developed the KPMG Global Green Initiative, which includes an ambitious target to reduce our combined global carbon footprint by 25 percent by 2010.

“These are often big and complex challenges, but I see, first hand, truly remarkable examples of KPMG people making a difference in the world. While there is still much to do, we are confident we are making a significant contribution in creating a more sustainable world and we are proud to share some of this with you.”

Michael Hastings
Lord Hastings of Scarisbrick (CBE)
Global Head of Citizenship and Diversity, KPMG International

* * *

KPMG International established the Global Development Initiative. This innovative program takes KPMG  commitment to corporate citizenship to a new level, bringing together KPMG people from around the world so they can tackle global issues.

Jane Smallman
Senior Manager, Global Citizenship & Diversity – UK
+44 207 311 1000
 citizenship at kpmg.com

To achieve this, KPMG firms have partnered with numerous International Development Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) to pioneer a model of professional collaboration. The aim is that we apply our people’s skills, knowledge and resources to sustainable enterprises in pursuit of the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). By working with a number of organizations, KPMG people have already made an impact on some pressing global issues. Some of the organizations include The Millennium Promise, Oxfam, Save the Children, UNICEF and World Vision.

KPMG says it is already involved in climate change issues via its 2008 started GREEN INITIATIVE that as they say -” which, amongst other progressive strategies, includes the ambition to reduce our global carbon footprint by 25 percent by 2010.”   ? ? ?
 http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/WhoWeAre/C…

————

Yvo de Boer will still be at the helm of the UNFCCC for the coming four months when one expected the UN to rev up its efforts for the December 2010 meeting in Mexico – Mexico City or Cancun – we got as of now different indications.

Without prior agreements, it is again unrealistic to expect a clear UN mandate to come out from a UNFCCC COP, but it is important that someone out there manages the travel time-tables of the UN folks for the preparatory meetings. Also, there is the need to discuss where the UN wants to take the UNFCCC institution, and if there is an intent to appoint a new Secretary-General – and if so – who shall he be? It seems that time has come to pass the batton to a South American considering the need to come up with someone from the South, and the clear Asian increase in CO2 emissions. So – what will it be? Will this new debate come instead of the search for an agreement of substance?

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 17th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Morrison & Foerster Seminar.
Cleantech Forum XXVI

Thursday, February 25, 2010

At The Palace Hotel
2 New Montgomery St.
San Francisco, California, 94105

Program:    11:30 AM – 12:30 PM
For more information and to register for the Cleantech Forum XXVI, please visit the Cleantech Forum website.

—————

Morrison & Foerster is a sponsor of the Cleantech Forum XXVI “Taking Cleantech to Scale” in San Francisco February 24-26th, 2010 at The Palace Hotel.

As a sponsor, we will present the following break-out panel discussion on Thursday, February 25 from 11:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.:

China/U.S. Cross-Border Investment in Cleantech.

China’s ambitious renewable energy goals, national incentive programs, and aggressive fuel economy standards will enable the growth of a domestic Cleantech industry that some have predicted could reach $1 trillion, or 15% of China’s GDP, by 2013. At the same time, the U.S. is increasing its focus on retrofitting existing infrastructure for efficiency. This panel will discuss differences in Cleantech investment priorities between the U.S. and China, their implications and key issues for cross-border Cleantech deals between the U.S. and China.

Moderator:
Charles Comey, Managing Partner of the Shanghai Office, Morrison & Foerster

Panel:
Raj Atluru, Managing Director, Draper Fisher Jurvetson
Ken DeWoskin, Senior Director, Deloitte China
David Yarnold, Executive Director, Environmental Defense Fund
Honghui Yu, Vice President, China Energy Conservation Investment Co.

The Cleantech Forum will bring together 1,000 industry leaders ushering in new forms of financing for scale and innovation, for a broader set of global demands and new business models. Attend Cleantech Forum and gain a competitive advantage as large corporate incumbents and governments worldwide play an increasing role in financing and scaling Cleantech. Learn about the new business models and markets that a maturing Cleantech sector is creating. Attendees have access to first-hand accounts from the new companies appearing, the new funds investing, and corporations looking for partners.

For more information and to register for the Cleantech Forum XXVI, please visit the Cleantech Forum website.

Morrison & Foerster’s global Cleantech Practice is dedicated to representing clients that are bringing innovative, sustainable products, services, and processes to the marketplace. The firm is the largest U.S. law firm in Asia and has over 75 lawyers working on the ground in China across three well-developed offices in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong. Morrison & Foerster is pleased to have served as sole international counsel to the Beijing Olympic Organizing Committee for the 2008 Summer Olympic Games.

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 17th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

March 3, 2010, Innovate in Canada: Bolstering Profitability in Greentech with Cross-Border Opportunities.

The Canadian Consulate General, representatives from the provinces of Ontario and Quebec, and the Vale Columbia Center are co-hosting an interactive strategy session on how companies can increase profitability by engaging in cross-border research collaboration. Companies including IBM, GE, Trilliant and Fasken Martineau will discuss cross border greentech projects during the session, including how to harness Canada’s agressive R&D tax incentives.

Karl Sauvant, Executive Director of the Vale Columbia Center on Sustainable International Investment will comment on the challenges of sustainable FDI, and the session will be moderated by Richard Bendis of Innovation America.

Date: March 3rd, 2010, 8:30am-10:00 am
Place: Reuters Building (3 Times Square, 30th Floor)
RSVP:  charlotte at thepontgroup.com  646-552-5803

Karl P. Sauvant, Ph.D.
Executive Director
Vale Columbia Center on Sustainable International Investment
Columbia Law School – Earth Institute
Columbia University
435 West 116th Street, Rm. JGH 639
New York, NY 10027
Ph: (212) 854-0689
Fax: (212) 854-7946

Please visit our website - http://www.vcc.columbia.edu
____________

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 11th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

CLIMATE CHANGE: Amidst Global Warming Coldest Winter in 50 Years.
By Julio Godoy

BERLIN, Feb 11, 2010 (IPS) – It was probably an irony that Europe’s coldest winter in 50 years coincided with the U.N. climate change summit in Copenhagen last December, which failed to deliver a treaty to reduce global warming emissions.

Since Dec. 13 it has been snowing uninterruptedly in Northern Europe. In some places in Germany, average night temperature has been around minus 20 degrees Celsius. The arctic winter, the coldest since 1957, froze rivers and channels, and disrupted transport links to some islands in the Baltic Sea.

The winter has also taken a toll on human lives. In Poland alone at least 212 people have died since November. Victims of cold In Germany, 14 people are known to have died during January, and hospitals around the country are reporting thousands of winter-related accidents – from auto crashes to people who simply slip on the frozen sidewalks and suffer fractures.

Similar severe weather conditions have been reported in Eastern Europe, in Central Asia and in North America.

But the arctic winter – the second this decade – is an exception to the general trend of global warming, according to meteorologists and climate experts. Frank Boettcher, director of the German Institute for Weather and Climate Communication, told IPS that “the present winter does not contradict the global climate change trend at all.”

As indicator of the persistence of climate change, Boettcher referred to the present temperatures in Greenland. “Right now, temperatures in Greenland are 15 degrees Celsius above the season’s long-term average,” he said. “This is a good indicator that we cannot rationalise global warming away.”

Boettcher said that the present temperatures in Central and Northern Europe are relatively low. ‘’That’s why many consider the winter particularly cold. But, in general, average temperatures have been on the rise since many years.”

According to official German weather statistics, present average temperature is at least one Celsius higher than 100 years ago. Even more illustrative is the comparison of the so-called cold sum of the winter, which is the total of all the daily negative average temperatures measured in the period between Nov. 1 and Mar. 31.

During the winter of 2009, the cold sum amounted to 131 – in 1946, last century’s coldest winter, the value surpassed 500 points. According to the German weather station of Zwickau, some 200 km south of Berlin, so far the cold sum of this winter has reached 225.

Uwe Kirsche, spokesperson of the German weather service, also said that even if the present weather conditions appear very cold, “it is the long-term observations which are important. This winter, even if it appears to be particularly cold and particularly long, it does not contradict the long-term evidence of global warming.”

Kirsche referred to a report by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which confirmed that the present decade has been the warmest ever observed in the southern hemisphere.

The NASA report released Jan. 21, said that new analysis of global surface temperatures found that 2009 was the second warmest since 1880. “In the southern hemisphere, 2009 was the warmest year on record,” it said.

The report explained that 2008 was the coolest year of the decade in the southern hemisphere due to a strong La Nina phenomenon, which cooled the tropical Pacific Ocean below average temperatures. La Niña (the little girl) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon similar to El Niño.

During La Niña, sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean is lower than normal by 0.5 degrees Celsius. In the United States, an episode of La Niña is defined as a period of at least five months of La Niña conditions.

In its report, the NASA said that “2009 saw a return to near-record [high] global temperatures as the La Nina diminished, according to the new analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.”

The document also confirmed the trend seen elsewhere, that this decade has been the warmest ever. In the paper, NASA points out that the 2009 average temperatures were a small fraction of a degree lower than 2005, the warmest on record.

That puts 2009 in a tie with a cluster of other recent years – 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2007 – as the second warmest on record.

“There’s always interest in the annual temperature numbers and a given year’s ranking, but the ranking often misses the point,” said James Hansen, GISS director, according to a NASA press release. “There’s substantial year-to-year variability of global temperature caused by the tropical El Nino-La Nina cycle.”

“When we average temperature over five or ten years to minimise that variability, we find global warming is continuing unabated,” Hansen concluded. According to GISS data, during the past three decades, there has been an upward trend in world average temperatures of about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. In total, average global temperatures have increased by about 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1880.

This data is consistent with observations by the U.N. weather agency, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). Just ahead of the Copenhagen conference , the WMO said that the past ten years had been the warmest since records began in 1850.

The decade 2000-2009 “is very likely to be the warmest on record, warmer than the 1990s, than the 1980s and so on,” Michel Jarraud, secretary-general of the WMO, told a news conference at the Danish capital on Dec. 8.

Other than average temperatures, evidence of global warming is manifold, from the bleaching of coral reefs to the melting of glaciers in several regions of the world, and to the acidification of ocean waters and their continued rise in level.

And yet, the present European cold winter will continue until March, according to the German weather forecast service. “The cold air is this time obstinate,” meteorologist Dominik Jung told IPS. “There is a stable thick cold air mass over Northern Europe, which is being constantly driven towards the South. It is going to be cold for the weeks to come.”

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 11th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

 http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-vine/what-th…

What The Snowpocalypse Tells Us About Global Warming.
by Bradford Plumer, February 10, 2010, The New Republic online

Washington D.C.’s getting slammed by record snowfall right now, which means that in addition to unplowed roads and Mad Max-style scenes at Safeway, we also have to suffer through a flurry of Al Gore jokes and Republicans snorting about how this proves global warming is all fake. I guess the prim, boring response is that a single weather event, even an extreme one, doesn’t tell us very much about long-term climate trends. But blah, blah, everyone’s heard that line before.

A more thoughtful reply comes from meteorologist Jeff Masters, who explains how massive snowstorms in the Northeast are, in fact, quite consistent with a steadily warming world:

There are two requirements for a record snow storm:

1) A near-record amount of moisture in the air (or a very slow moving storm).

2) Temperatures cold enough for snow.

It’s not hard at all to get temperatures cold enough for snow in a world experiencing global warming.

According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the globe warmed 0.74°C (1.3°F) over the past 100 years. There will still be colder than average winters in a world that is experiencing warming, with plenty of opportunities for snow.

The more difficult ingredient for producing a record snowstorm is the requirement of near-record levels of moisture.

Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events–the ones most likely to cause flash flooding–will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air.

According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. This extra moisture in the air will tend to produce heavier snowstorms, assuming it is cold enough to snow. Groisman et al. (2004) found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events in the U.S. over the past 100 years, though mainly in spring and summer. However, the authors did find a significant increase in winter heavy precipitation events have occurred in the Northeast U.S.

This was echoed by Changnon et al. (2006), who found, “The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901-2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901-2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity.”

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting the U.S. Global Change Research Program actually predicted stronger winter storms for the Northeast, in its 2009 report on potential climate-change impacts for the United States:

Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes (Kunkel et al., 2008). The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights.”

Now, that doesn’t mean we can definitely say that global warming caused this snow monstrosity—again, it’s too hard to attribute any single weather event to long-term climate shifts. (For instance, El Niño may be playing a bigger role right now in feeding these storms.) At most, we can say that a warming climate will create the conditions that make fierce winter storms in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic more likely. Or at least it will for awhile: If the planet keeps heating up, then at some point freezing conditions in the Northeast will become very rare, at which point snowstorms will, too But we’re not at that point—the Earth hasn’t warmed that much yet.

On the other hand, climate models do predict that snowstorms in the southernmost parts of the United States should become much rarer in the coming decades: There’s plenty of moisture down south, but freezing temperatures are likely to decrease and the jet stream is expected to shift northward. So if those regions start seeing a sustained uptick in snowfall, then something’s gone awry in climate predictions. But the blizzard in the Northeast, while miserable and incredibly disruptive, doesn’t appear whack with long-term forecasts. (That’s not exactly cheerful news for those of us who have to live here.)

—————
Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

Last Updated: 1:02 PM GMT on February 11, 2010.
Heavy snowfall in a warming world.

Posted by: JeffMasters on February 08, 2010

A major new winter storm is headed east over the U.S. today, and threatens to dump a foot or more of snow on Philadelphia, New York City, and surrounding regions Tuesday and Wednesday. Philadelphia is still digging out from its second top-ten snowstorm of recorded history to hit the city this winter, and the streets are going to begin looking like canyons if this week’s snowstorm adds a significant amount of snow to the incredible 28.5″ that fell during “Snowmageddon” last Friday and Saturday. Philadelphia has had two snowstorms exceeding 23″ this winter. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the return period for a 22+ inch snow storm is once every 100 years–and we’ve had two 100-year snow storms in Philadelphia this winter. It is true that if the winter pattern of jet stream location, sea surface temperatures, etc, are suitable for a 100-year storm to form, that will increase the chances for a second such storm to occur that same year, and thus the odds have having two 100-year storms the same year are not 1 in 10,000. Still, the two huge snowstorms this winter in the Mid-Atlantic are definitely a very rare event one should see only once every few hundred years, and is something that has not occurred since modern records began in 1870. The situation is similar for Baltimore and Washington D.C. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the expected return period in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region for snowstorms with more than 16 inches of snow is about once every 25 years. This one-two punch of two major Nor’easters in one winter with 16+ inches of snow is unprecedented in the historical record for the region, which goes back to the late 1800s.

Top 9 snowstorms on record for Philadelphia:

1. 30.7″, Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5″, Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
3. 23.2″, Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
4. 21.3″, Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0″, Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4″, Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9″, Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7″, Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.1″, Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore:

1. 28.2″, Feb 15-18, 2003
2. 26.5″, Jan 27-29, 1922
3. 24.8″, Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
4. 22.8″, Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 22.5″, Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 22.0″, Mar 29-30, 1942
7. 21.4″, Feb 11-14, 1899
8. 21.0″, Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 20.0″, Feb 18-19, 1979
10. 16.0″, Mar 15-18, 1892

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:

1. 28.0″, Jan 27-28, 1922
2. 20.5″, Feb 11-13, 1899
3. 18.7″, Feb 18-19, 1979
4. 17.8″ Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
5. 17.1″, Jan 6-8, 1996
6. 16.7″, Feb 15-18, 2003
7. 16.6″, Feb 11-12, 1983
8. 16.4″, Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 14.4″, Feb 15-16, 1958
10. 14.4″, Feb 7, 1936

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 11th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Post-Copenhagen – ALDE MEPs Corrine Lepage (MoDem, France) and Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat, UK) have called on the EU to be bolder in its strategy to help forge a legally binding global deal on carbon emission cuts in the wake of the failed Copenhagen Climate Change Summit.

Speaking after the European Parliament voted today to set a target of cutting EU emissions by more than 20% Lepage, vice-chair of the Environment Committee said:

“This resolution should be considered as a first step.

Our priority must be to re-establish the trust of our citizens in scientific data. It is vital to convince them that the promotion of a low carbon economy is a response both to the effects of climate change and, in part, to the economic crisis.

It is equally crucial that Europe speak with one voice in favor of an agreement with the main emitters of CO2, notably the US and China.

Finally, it is essential to stick to our financial commitments with regard to developing countries.”

Mr Davies, ALDE Environment Spokesman added:

“After the disappointment of Copenhagen the EU has to raise its game and take a lead. By saving energy and improving energy efficiency we will save resources, drive down emissions, and make our economy more competitive.”

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 10th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Green groups have warned that electric cars could actually increase carbon emissions.

Spain pushes for common strategy on electric cars.
VALENTINA POP

January 10, 2010, EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS  http://euobserver.com/9/29443/?rk=1

EU industry ministers on Tuesday (9 February) discussed plans to establish a common strategy for electric cars, a pet project of the Spanish EU presidency.

Following the informal talks in the northern Spanish city of San Sebastian, the country’s industry minister Miguel Sebastian said it was not an exaggeration to say that the electric vehicle “has been born today in Europe,” and that it has done so under the Spanish presidency.

“Obviously there are lots of questions …issues of legal security, validation, the safety of the vehicles themselves …and cost,” he admitted, however.

As national plans vary throughout Europe and use differing technologies, not always compatible, Spain is pushing for the EU commission to come up with a common strategy in May. The Spanish minister cited Germany’s support for the plan.

Madrid also wants the electric car included in the bloc’s economic strategy for the next ten years, the so-called 2020 Agenda, as it would boost its ailing auto sector, stem soaring unemployment rates and use the renewable energy produced domestically.

The EU would compete against already established electric car manufacturers in Japan, China and the United States.

“It is good for people’s pockets, good for European income and employment, good for Europe as a whole, and it will be good for the planet from an environmental perspective,” the Spanish minister said.

But his view was not shared by several green groups issuing a report on Monday in which they warned that electric cars alone could actually increase carbon emissions unless they were backed by “smart” power grids.

The report, commissioned by Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace and Transport & Environment, says that existing EU legislation on car emissions is flawed because it allows manufacturers to use sales of electric vehicles to offset the continued production of high gas-consuming cars.

Increasing sales of electric cars to 10 percent of the total could lead to a 20 percent increase in both oil consumption and CO2 emissions in the EU car sector, the groups warn.

About 400 grams of carbon dioxide are emitted on average for every kilowatt-hour of electricity in the EU, but this can more than double if coal is used, says the report.

The answer, in their view, is to integrate electric cars with a “smart” electricity network, which would charge vehicles only when there was an abundance of green power from sources such as wind farms. But smart power networks are still in their early phase, despite EU pledges to develop them further.

“Just as every car sold today has to have an odometer to show how far it has driven, every electric car needs a smart meter to show how much electricity has been used and better still, whether or not that electricity came from a renewable source,” Nusa Urbancic from Transport & Environment said in a statement.

Simply plugging electric cars in “like kettles” would leave consumers and electricity suppliers “in confusion and chaos”, Ms Urbancic argued. “It’s up to the EU to ensure that all new cars sold in Europe are fitted with this kind of technology,” she added.

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 9th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

from: Lorenz Martin

Workshop on Climate Change Scenarios

2 March 2010, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

The Center for Climate System Modeling (C2SM) of the ETH Zurich and the
NCCR Climate, Switzerland’s centre of excellence in climate and climate
impact research, are organising a workshop on climate change scenarios.

————–

A series of national and international speakers will

- present the current state of scenario development at regional and
global scales;
- discuss the strategy for the development and dissemination of updated
future climate scenarios for Switzerland.

Further information including the detailed workshop programme are
available at <http://www.c2sm.ethz.ch/news/scen_workshop/>.

Everybody is welcome at the workshop, please register at
<http://www.c2sm.ethz.ch/news/scen_workshop/registration>. The
participation fee of CHF 40 has to be paid in cash at the workshop.

————–

Contact: Dr. Isabelle Bey, <mailto:isabelle.bey@env.ethz.ch>


Dr. Lorenz Martin, Science Officer
Oeschger Centre and NCCR Climate Management Centre
University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
Phone +41 31 631 31 46, Fax +41 31 631 43 38
mailto:lorenz.martin@oeschger.unibe.ch http://www.oeschger.unibe.ch

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 7th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Arctic Melt To Cost Up To $24 Trillion By 2050: Report

Date: 08-Feb-10
Author: Timothy Gardner, Reuthers

WASHINGTON – Arctic ice melting could cost global agriculture, real estate and insurance anywhere from $2.4 trillion to $24 trillion by 2050 in damage from rising sea levels, floods and heat waves, according to a report released on Friday.

“Everybody around the world is going to bear these costs,” said Eban Goodstein, a resource economist at Bard College in New York state who co-authored the report, called “Arctic Treasure, Global Assets Melting Away.”

He said the report, reviewed by more than a dozen scientists and economists and funded by the Pew Environment Group, an arm of the Pew Charitable Trusts, provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of the loss of one of the world’s great weather makers.

“The Arctic is the planet’s air conditioner and it’s starting to break down,” he said.

The loss of Arctic Sea ice and snow cover is already costing the world about $61 billion to $371 billion annually from costs associated with heat waves, flooding and other factors, the report said.

The losses could grow as a warmer Arctic unlocks vast stores of methane in the permafrost. The gas has about 21 times the global warming impact of carbon dioxide.

Melting of Arctic sea ice is already triggering a feedback of more warming as dark water revealed by the receding ice absorbs more of the sun’s energy, he said. That could lead to more melting of glaciers on land and raise global sea levels.

While much of Europe and the United States has suffered heavy snowstorms and unusually low temperatures this winter, evidence has built that the Arctic is at risk from warming.

Greenhouse gases generated by tailpipes and smokestacks have pushed Arctic temperatures in the last decade to the highest levels in at least 2,000 years, reversing a natural cooling trend, an international team of researchers reported in the journal Science in September.

Arctic emissions of methane have jumped 30 percent in recent years, scientists said last month.

Thin ice over the Arctic Sea this winter could mean a powerful ice-melt next summer, a top U.S. climate scientist said this week.

And early findings from a major research project in Canada involving more than 370 scientists from 27 countries showed on Friday that climate change is transforming the Arctic environment faster than expected and accelerating the disappearance of sea ice.

Goodstein’s study did not look at worst-case scenarios Arctic melting could have, such as warmer temperatures that trigger massive releases of crystallized methane formations in Arctic soils and ocean beds known as methane hydrates. It also did not look at sea ice erosion troubling people in the Arctic.

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 6th, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

The capital region is not accustomed to this much snow. The average annual snowfall for Washington is 15 inches. But the 2009-10 winter has been far from average. A major storm just before Christmas dumped up to 20 inches in some areas, and the city has seen smaller snow accumulations already twice this week.

The record snowfall for D.C. was 28 inches in 1922.This weekend alone will surpass that amount.

The snow was expected to become particularly heavy after nightfall and continue through Saturday. The Washington DC district’s director of transportation, Gabe Klein, said the snow could pile up at a rate of four inches an hour during parts of the storm, with winds gusting up to 25 miles an hour.

For district officials, the latest blizzard seemed a bit old hat. “We’re pretty much going to handle it in the same way we handled the last storm,” said William Howland Jr., director of D.C.’s Department of Public Works. In the spirit of the season, city press advisories referred to the storm as the “super snow bowl.”  Others dubbed it – “Snowmageddon.” We call it a potential tie-breaker in the Congressional Global Warming Wars. They will call it Washington Freezing and find in it an excuse for doing nothing on the Global Issue.

The storm also got the attention of the White House, whose current occupant, Barack Obama, famously dissed his adopted city’s response to a minor snowfall shortly after taking office last year. This time around, his tune had changed. As White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters, “Even a transplanted Hawaiian to Chicago has sufficient respect for a forecast of nearly two feet of snow.”

———-

Even as city officials were urging residents to stay off the streets, Washingtonians were making plans for mass revelry in the form of giant snowball fights. (A group snow battle during the December storm was marred when a police officer pulled out a gun after snowballs hit his Hummer.)

On Friday, a Facebook group promoted the “official DuPont Circle Snowball Fight” for Saturday afternoon and boasted that its membership had soared from 30 people on Thursday to more than 2,000 a day later.

Local bars and restaurants were offering Snow Day specials, with at least one establishment, Urbana, promoting a “baby, it’s cold outside beach party” theme.

Washington, Maryland and Virginia all declared snow emergencies Friday morning, and hundreds of flights were canceled at the region’s three major airports.  The lobbyists will be stuck in town this weekend. With snow soon to be sticking to the runways, a Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority spokesman said she expected the final flights to leave the area by 6 p.m., with the airports likely to be shuttered all day Saturday.


——————–

By Nafeesa Syeed
AP
WASHINGTON (Feb. 6) — A blizzard battered the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday, with emergency crews struggling to keep pace with the heavy, wet snow that has piled up on roadways, toppled trees and left thousands without electricity.

The National Weather Service called the storm “extremely dangerous.”

Officials urged people to huddle at home and out of the way of emergency crews. Forecasters said the storm could be the biggest for the nation’s capital in modern history.

A record 2½ feet or more was predicted for Washington. As of early Saturday, 10 inches of snow was reported at the White House, while parts of Maryland and West Virginia were buried under more than 20 inches. Forecasters expected snowfall rates to increase, up to 2 inches per hour through Saturday morning.

Blizzard warnings were issued for the District of Columbia, Baltimore, parts of New Jersey and Delaware, and some areas west of the Chesapeake Bay.

“Things are fairly manageable, but trees are starting to come down,” said D.C. fire department spokesman Pete Piringer, whose agency responded to some of the falling trees. No injuries were reported.

President Barack Obama called the storm “Snowmageddon.”

Airlines canceled flights, churches called off weekend services and people wondered if they would be stuck at home for several days in a region ill-equipped to deal with so much snow.

“D.C. traditionally panics when it comes to snow. This time, it may be more justifiable than most times,” said Becky Shipp, who was power-walking in Arlington, Va., Friday. “I am trying to get a walk in before I am stuck with just the exercise machine in my condo.”

The region’s second snowstorm in less than two months brought heavy, wet snow and strong winds that forecasters warned could gust near 60 mph in some areas along the coast.

Hundreds of thousands of customers across the region had lost electricity and more outages were expected to be reported because of all the downed power lines. A hospital fire in D.C. sent about three dozen patients scurrying from their rooms to safety in a basement. The blaze started when a snow plow truck caught fire near the building.

Authorities blamed the storm for hundreds of accidents, including a deadly tractor-trailer wreck that killed a father and son who had stopped to help someone in Virginia. Some area hospitals asked people with four-wheel-drive vehicles to volunteer to pick up doctors and nurses to take them to work.

The country band Rascal Flatts postponed a concert Saturday in Ohio, but the Atlanta Thrashers-Washington Capitals NHL game went on as planned.

In Dover, Del., Shanita Foster lugged three gallons of water out of a Dollar General store.
“That’s all we need right now. We’ve got everything else,” said Foster, adding that she was ready with candles in case the power went out.

Shoppers jammed aisles and emptied stores of milk, bread, shovels, driveway salt and other supplies. Many scrambling for food and supplies were too late.
“Our shelves are bare,” said Food Lion front-end manager Darlene Baboo in Dover. “This is just unreal.”

Metro, the transit system the Washington area is heavily dependent upon, closed all but the underground rail service and suspended bus service.

Maryland’s public transportation also shut down Saturday, including Baltimore’s Metro. Maryland Transit Administration spokeswoman Jawauna Greene said the underground portion of the Metro could reopen later Saturday but it depended on the weather conditions.
“We have trees on the overhead wires, trees on train tracks. We can’t get anything out,” she said.

Amtrak also canceled several of its Northeast Corridor trains Saturday, and New Jersey’s transit authority expected to suspend bus service. As much as a foot of snow was reported in parts of that state.

Across the region, transportation officials deployed thousands of trucks and crews and had hundreds of thousands of tons of salt at the ready. Several states exhausted or expected to exhaust their snow removal budgets.

Maryland budgeted about $60 million, and had already spent about $50 million, Gov. Martin O’Malley said. Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, who has been in office less than a month, declared his second snow emergency, authorizing state agencies to assist local governments. As of early Saturday, some parts of Virginia had already seen more than 18 inches of snow.

The snow comes less than two months after a Dec. 19 storm dumped more than 16 inches on Washington. Snowfalls of this magnitude – let alone two in one season – are rare in the area. According to the National Weather Service, Washington has gotten more than a foot of snow only 13 times since 1870.

The heaviest on record was 28 inches in January 1922. The biggest snowfall for the Washington-Baltimore area is believed to have been in 1772, before official records were kept, when as much as 3 feet fell, which George Washington and Thomas Jefferson penned in their diaries.

In Washington, tourists made the best of it Friday, spending their days in museums or venturing out to see the monuments before the snow got too heavy.

A group of 13 high school students from Cincinnati was stranded in D.C. when a student government conference they planned to attend was canceled – after they had already arrived. So they went sightseeing.

At the Smithsonian’s natural history museum, Caitlin Lavon, 18, and Hannah Koch, 17, took pictures of each other with the jaws of a great white shark in the Ocean Hall.
“Our parents are all freaking out, sending texts to be careful,” Koch said. “Being from Ohio, I don’t think I’ve ever seen that much snow at once.”

Associated Press writers Brett Zongker and Sarah Karush in Washington, Kathleen Miller in Falls Church, Va., David Dishneau in Chantilly, Va., Ben Nuckols in Hanover, Md., Randall Chase in Dover, Del., and Steve Szkotak in Richmond, Va., contributed to this report.

———————

Here in New York, I just came home from jogging on the street – there were more joggers out on a Saturday morning then I ever saw. The streets  are clear – the only white is that of salt some eager store owners or building – Supers sprinkled believing there will be snow. Indeed in between parked cars, in some streets, there is a little bit of white – so there was a dusting sometime earlier today. Will New York be spared this time? Was it all destined for Washington or we are still on line to get it later?

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 3rd, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

The EU refuses to see the multi headed Hydra it has become and expects President Obama to play along. Reality calls – EU please get serious at becoming some sort of one headed entity! The US President is a busy man now with all that US Jazz.

It slowly starts sinking in – we said it a long time ago!

Battling the ‘Multilateral Zombie’ – EU climate strategy after Copenhagen.
LEIGH PHILLIPS

February 3, 2010, http://euobserver.com/9/29354/?rk=1,
 http://old.norden.org/analysnorden/defau…

EUOBSERVER / ANALYSIS – “The EU’s post-Copenhagen strategy should be
just to have a strategy, any strategy,” quips one Brussels think-tank
wag
during an interview.

The rough hip-check Europe received in the Danish capital in December,
sidelining the bloc during the eleventh-hour huddle between major
powers that produced the Copenhagen Accord, has produced a wave of
despondency and cynicism amongst Brussels politicians, green
lobbyists, and analysts – and carbon traders across the continent to
boot. They’re all having a crack at how poorly the EU played its hand
during climate negotiations.

For the last three years, if it hasn’t been the institutional reform
of the Lisbon Treaty, it’s been the bloc’s obsession with climate
change that has dominated the EU agenda. Even if the EU is well off
the at least 40 percent cut in emissions that science demands if we
are to avoid catastrophic climate change, it remains the case that as
a result of its 2008 climate and energy package, Europe remains the
most advanced rich-country power on the planet in terms of its binding
CO2 reduction commitment.

With its climate boy-scout badge afixed to its sleeve, Brussels headed
off to Camp Copenhagen expecting at least to see its self-proclaimed
leadership reflected in winning something along the lines of a broad
commitment from other powers to at least a 20-percent cut in carbon
emissions below 1990 levels by 2020.

But in the end, the EU ended up the goody-two-shoes pupil who’s top of
the class, but yet, when he invites all the other kids over for a
party, glumly watches as they end up playing among each other instead
of with him. It was the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa that
cobbled together the last-minute three-page-long Copenhagen Accord
without the EU even in the room, while most of the developing world
complained throughout the two weeks that Brussels was at best just a
cat’s paw for Washington.

Denmark’s Connie Hedegaard, now incoming EU
climate commissioner, was repeatedly attacked for favouring rich
countries over the developing world.

“It was the strangest conference I have been at in my life, from all
points of view,” Mr Barroso told a pow-wow of the leading European
think-tanks in early January.

Typical of the initial EU reaction were comments from Swedish
environment minister Andres Carlgren, who, when meeting in Brussels in
late December with his EU counterparts to debrief after the UN summit
and begin the discussion of what to do next, slammed the result as a
“disaster.”

“It was a really great failure and we have to learn from that,” he
said at the time. { but the gentleman forgot to say whose failure it was!}

Glass half full!

However, after the holidays, a clutch of pollyanna-ish EU officials
have since fervently urged everyone to consider the Accord’s silver
lining. Both President Barroso and the bloc’s chief climate
negotiator, Artur Runge-Metzger, in various venues have emphasised
that many of the things the EU had been pushing for were contained in
the final result – developed countries agreed for the first time a
concrete sum for climate finance, a target maximum average global
temperature increase of two degrees was embraced and a review,
allowing for a ratcheting up of targets if necessary, is foreseen for
2015.

Ms Hedegaard during the parliamentary hearing to confirm her
appointment as commissioner gave a robust defence of the document.

“I would very much have liked to have seen more progress in
Copenhagen, but finance was delivered; all the emerging developing
nations have accepted co-responsibility [for reducing emissions] and
Brazil, South Africa, China, India and the US, all of whom were not
part of the Kyoto Protocol, have now set targets for domestic action,”
she told MEPs mid-January.

But even as the EU begins to view the Copenhagen glass as half full,
elsewhere, support for the document is beginning to unravel.

Last week, realising that only around 20 countries had listed their
emissions reductions commitments in a schedule attached to the Accord,
UN climate chief Yvo de Boer quietly abandoned the 31 January deadline
for states to have done so.

At the same time, EU member states that have never been comfortable
with the bloc’s climate ambitions have used the opportunity to delay
or block European plans to boost its CO2 emissions reduction
commitment from 20 percent on 1990 levels to 30 percent. On 18
January, environment ministers met in Seville, to assess, for the
second time, the reasons for the failure in the Danish capital. UK,
France, Germany, Belgium and Spain continued to push for the increased
pledge, while Italy and Poland said now was not the time given the
poverty of ambition by other states at Copenhagen.

As of this week, the consensus in the bloc is to maintain its target
of 20 percent and conditional offer of 30 percent if other powers make
comparable efforts – in other words exactly the same position the EU
has held for the last year, although Ms Hedegaard has publicly said
she hopes to see a move to 30 percent “by Mexico,” meaning the next UN
climate summit in the Central American nation at the end of 2010.

At the same time, the commission itself is in the ‘twenty-percenter’
camp, pushing this position in Copenhagen, “afraid to be naked” with
nothing left to put on the table in the game of climate strip poker.
Moreover, crucially, the executive’s goal of a transatlantic emissions
trading system is unworkable with cuts pledges that are wildly
divergent and without legally binding commitments from Washington.

The US is looking to a 17 percent emissions reduction on 2005 levels,
which works out to be just three percent when using the same 1990
baseline year as the EU. Watch for the US, if legislation gets
through, at some point to somehow nudge up its cut to 20 percent and
the EU to stick to the same figure, dressed up in language about how
the two targets are now comparable, with a fudge over the differing
baseline years.

Support unravelling:

Separately, four of the five architects of the Accord, Brazil, South
Africa, India and China, have themselves gone lukewarm on the project,
smarting from accusations from much of the rest of the developing
world that these four richest of the poor countries had broken ranks
after a year of unprecedented global south unity.

Last weekend, meeting in New Delhi, the four so-called Basic countries
described the accord as merely a “political understanding” without any
legal basis and that action should instead proceed on the basis of the
two documents to come out of the official UN process – one outlining
the second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol and the other
dealing with climate actions by the US and emerging economies.

Indian environment minister Jairam Ramesh said: “We support the
Copenhagen Accord. But all of us were unanimously of the view that its
value lies not as a standalone document but as an input into the
two-track negotiation process under the UNFCCC.”

“The two-track negotiating process …is the only legitimate process
to reach a legally binding treaty in Mexico,” he added.

Meanwhile, the cornerstone of the Accord, an understanding that
however limited America’s commitment, Washington would at least be
able to deliver on this promise.

But with the surprise election to the US Senate of Massachusetts
Republican Scott Brown on an anti-climate-bill ticket, killing the
Democrat’s filibuster-proof majority, the country’s climate
legislation is threatened. A defeated or heavily watered down bill
only engenders further reservations in the minds of Chinese, Indian
and even European leadership about promising tough reduction targets.

For all the public talk of Latin American, Chinese and African climate
“villains” blocking the process in Copenhagen, privately, there is
frustration with Washington as well. A senior EU policy official
speaking to EUobserver described President Obama’s position as the
same as that of George Bush. “We are willing but only if others move,”
the official said, attributing the position to both the current and
former US leaders.

One EU climate voice {?}

A popular post-Copenhagen analysis from the Brookings Institute, the
centrist US think-tank, that has made the rounds of officialdom and
NGO-land warns of a slow-motion failure scenario similar to the Doha
round of WTO talks, a process it describes as a “multilateral zombie”
in which climate negotiations “stagger on piteously, never making much
progress while never quite dying either.”

Nevertheless, despite the dark days and the cynicism of some
onlookers, we can already begin to sense the outlines of a European
strategy.

EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy has already said he hopes to
see a common climate strategy emerge from an 11 February extraordinary
EU summit originally scheduled to deal with the economy. Angela
Merkel, as well, has upgraded a climate meeting in Bonn in June from
expert to ministerial level and the European Commission is preparing a
series of proposals that it is to put to the member states.

One of the main lessons the European Commission has drawn from the
Copenhagen failure is that European representation in climate change
talks needs to be streamlined in order to project its position more
effectively, even if the commission is not awarded the task of
negotiating on behalf of the bloc, as it does in trade talks,

“We are fragmented from a negotiating point of view,” President
Barroso said in his first public appearance of the year. “In trade
matters, this is different. The European Commission is the voice.”

Ms Hedegaard is of the same mind. In her parliamentary hearing, her
top message concerned European disunity: “In the last hours, China,
India, Russia, Japan each spoke with one voice, while Europe spoke
with many different voices.”

“A lot of Europeans in the room is not a problem, but there is only an
advantage if we sing from same hymn sheet. We need to think about this
and reflect on this very seriously, or we will lose our leadership
role in the world,” she told MEPs.

In a similar vein, the commission president has also suggested that
the new EU External Action Service – the bloc’s diplomatic corps born
of the Lisbon Treaty – be given more leeway to engage in climate
bargaining.

Until now, this sort of bilateral pressure has been left up to the
member states, with Paris tasked with winning over Francophone Africa,
London with arm-twisting the Commonwealth and Berlin given the job of
seducing Pacific islands.

Before last autumn’s federal election in Germany,
then-foreign-minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was meeting regularly
with the Association of Small Island States and 20 Aosis ministers
visited the country last year specifically to discuss climate issues,
while Ethiopia’s surprise intervention at Copenhagen proposing a deal
that mirrored almost word for word a European Commission proposal from
September came as the result of UK and French behind-the-scenes
intercession.

While this sort of member-state activity is likely to continue, the
Lisbon Treaty has given the commission a powerful new diplomatic
weapon it intends to use to the fullest.

Sidelining the UN:

Related to this, the major task will be to break the remarkable unity
shown by developing nations. The UNFCCC’s principle dating back to
Kyoto of “common but differentiated responsibility,” is understood by
developing nations to mean that those countries that caused the
problem should pay for solving it and make binding commitments to CO2
reductions.

The third world has said that it would be happy to develop along a
low-carbon path itself, but that the rich north will have to pay for
this and that their emissions cuts should in any case be voluntary.
The World Bank, unhelpfully, has estimated the cost of all this to be
$400 billion a year. Meanwhile, wealthy nations, would rather that the
developing world, but specifically China and to a lesser extent India,
agree to binding, verifiable CO2 cuts without the price tag.

The key advantage of the Copenhagen Accord for rich countries is that
it “weakens or even does away with the principle of common but
differentiated responsibilities,” as the South Centre, a Geneva-based
think-tank close to developing world governments, warns – another
reason why the Basic countries, upon reflection, have taken a distance
from the deal.

In many ways, Copenhagen was a victory for the developing world, in
that it managed to hold off against pressure to junk the Kyoto
Protocol and in the end ensured that the Copenhagen Accord was only
“noted” by the UN plenary instead of endorsed, making it a document
floating in a legal limbo.

For this reason, the US has called for a junking of the UN process,
hoping that it can win other countries to its perspective via more
manageable arenas such as the G20 or the Major Emitters Forum, where
there are far fewer than the UN’s 192 nations to deal with and the
‘awkward squad’ of left-wing Latin American nations and the G77 group
of nations are absent. Both Jonathan Pershing, America’s chief
negotiator, and US climate envoy Todd Stern have said the UN should be
sidelined.

EU leaders however “are less neurotic about the UN than the Americans
are,” in the words of the Centre for European Policy Studies’ climate
specialist, Christian Egenhofer.

At the same time that President Barroso admitted to pulling his hair
out at the UN process, he also said there is no other option. “We need
to have a more efficient and results-oriented process in the future
…With unanimity, it is easier for one country to block – it’s the
basic logic of the system,” he said in early January, adding however:
“It’s very easy to criticise the UN …but the UN is what the members
make out of it.”

Although some Spanish presidency officials at one point said that
climate negotiations should pass through the G20 instead, everyone
else, from Mr Runge-Metzger to Ms Hedegaard believe this cannot be
done. “Some ask: ‘Shouldn’t we give up on the UN process?’ I say:
‘No.’ We would waste too much work,” she told the European Parliament.

Instead, according to Mr Runge-Metzger: “The next step for the EU is
to get the accord translated into the UN process,” to try to lock in
agreement in other fora and then feed this into the main UN
negotiations. The key is to appear to be endorsing the UN process
while still pushing for other fora to do the heavy lifting.

One arena in particular that climate watchers should keep an eye on is
the UN High-Level Panel on Climate Change and Development, announced
by Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon last September and to be launched
early this year. Made up of a handful of current heads of government,
along with experts, senior government officials and community leaders,
the panel will be a much more manageable entity, but will also have
the imprimatur of the UN.

Border tariff:

Meanwhile, EU officials are briefing heavily against the awkward
squad, attempting to paint them as obstructionist and
unrepresentative. Reporters are reminded of G77-chair Sudan’s
authoritarian government, while Ethiopia, which has authoritarian rule
but is on side, is never criticized. With Yemen, the birthplace of the
infamous underpants bomber, holding the 2010 presidency of the group,
this will be an even easier public relations hatchet job.

But it was not just a handful of countries, but the entire Africa
Group of Nations that forced a suspension of proceedings when they
twice walked out of the UN complaining of rich country shenanigans.
Latin America and the loudmouthed-or-eloquent (depending on who you
asked) Oxford-educated G77 negotiator Lumumba di-Aping, famous for his
line that an offer of $10 billion in climate finance “is not enough to
buy us coffins,” were only the most vocal of a host of frustrated
countries.

At the same time, even ardent developing world advocates privately
express their discomfort at the wealthy elites of China and India
using the poor of their own countries to advance an agenda of growth
that primarily benefits them. And it is true that the developing world
is not all of one mind. Tuvalu is bitterly opposed to the Copenhagen
Accord while the Maldives embraces it as the best it can get while the
tides are rapidly rising.

Elsewhere, the EU is also almost certain to take a fresh look at
slapping carbon tariffs on goods entering the bloc. There is no way
industry would allow a move to a 30 percent emissions reduction pledge
without such protection. “I will fight for a carbon tax levied on EU
borders,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said earlier this month.

It’s always easy to dismiss such ambition when expressed by a man
known for his crafting of public policy by press conference, and EU
commissioner-designate for trade, Karel de Gucht has ruled a carbon
border tariff out, saying: “it will …lead to an escalating trade war
on a global level.”

But this is what a trade commissioner has to say. Many analysts
believe that a carbon tariff is inevitable and even WTO-compatible if
multilaterally agreed. The US climate bill already includes a carbon
tariff provision and, crucially, this is the stick that could be used
to force China, India and other nations to submit to its preferred
climate regime of binding reduction commitments for emerging
economies.

The EU is still essential here. Washington could not move ahead with a
tariff without Brussels on board.

It should also be remembered that many other major powers were
sidelined at Copenhagen. Japan and Russia were also absent from
Copenhagen’s endgame. In many ways, the EU’s limited influence has
been largely a product of its own climate success. Although Europe is
the world’s third largest emitter, this will likely change in the near
future. Ironically, if the continent isn’t going to be as much of a
problem in absolute (as opposed to per capita) terms as China or India
by 2030, it doesn’t have much of a bargaining chip. Washington was
always going to be far more interested in Beijing.

Copenhagen was very much the US and China show, but it won’t always be.


——–

This feature was originially written for the Nordic Council’s Analys
Norden website.

{ We wonder at the last sentence of the article because we think that unless the EU does in fact unite under  one leadership it will not amount to much when the US continues to deal with the BASICs – I mean the countries that are form the basic future. The EU should aim at becoming the G3 to be added to China and the US in future global negotiations that will include also the IBSA and one or two more states. See please next article.}

——————————————————————————-

US blames Lisbon Treaty for EU summit fiasco. Mr Obama – the Madrid summit decision is being seen as a diplomatic snub to Spain.
by ANDREW RETTMAN from Brussels.

February 3, 2010, http://euobserver.com/9/29398/?rk=1
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS  writes -  The US State Department has said that President Barack Obama’s decision not to come to an EU summit in Madrid in May is partly due to confusion arising from the Lisbon Treaty.

State department spokesman Philip J. Crowley told press in Washington on Tuesday (2 February) that the treaty has made it unclear who the US leader should meet and when. { that sounds very clear to me.}

“Up until recently, they [summits] would occur on six-month intervals,
as I recall, with one meeting in Europe and one meeting here. And that
was part of – the foundation of that was the rotating presidency
within the EU. Now you have a new structure regarding not only the
rotating EU presidency, you’ve got an EU Council president, you’ve got
a European Commission president,” he said.

“We are working through this just as Europeans themselves are working
through this: When you have a future EU-US summit meeting, who will
host it and where will it be held?” he added. “All of this is kind of
being reassessed in light of architectural changes in Europe.”

The Lisbon Treaty came into force on 1 December, 2009. It created the post
of a new EU Council president and EU foreign relations chief in order
to give the union a stronger voice abroad.

It kept the institution of the six-month rotating EU presidency as
well, with the member state holding the chairmanship to do the bulk of
behind-the-scenes policy work in Brussels.

The Spanish EU presidency is being closely watched to see how the EU
manages the transition to the new power structure. The EU Council
president has so far taken charge of summits in the EU capital. But
Madrid was to share the limelight with a few top-level events at home.

The state department’s Mr Crowley said the US and Spain have been in
touch “directly” to discuss Mr Obama’s decision after Madrid learned
about it through the media on Monday.

“Obviously, there’s been some disappointment expressed by the
government of Spain, and we understand that and we’ll be working with
them on that,” he said.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero and Mr Obama are both
expected to attend the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington on
Thursday. But no bilateral meeting has been announced so far.

The informal event sees some 3,500 celebrities, businessmen,
politicians and religious leaders get together in the US capital each
year. It is organised by the Fellowship Foundation, a Christian
fundamentalist pressure group.

Mr Zapatero, a centre-left secularist, has taken flak for his trip in
Spanish media, with the El Pais daily calling his decision to attend
the prayer event “shocking.”

###

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 3rd, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

Climate change http://bit.ly/5iZZ41
12:39 PM Jan 8th from Ecademy.com

Green jobs http://bit.ly/5MsDHG
5:04 AM Jan 8th from Ecademy.com

Climate change – No hiding place?
The betting is that 2010 will be the hottest year on record. But
understanding how the planet’s temperature changes is still a
challenge to science
Jan 7th 2010  From The Economist print edition

IT MAY seem implausible at the moment, as northern Europe, Asia and
parts of America shiver in the snow, but 2010 may well turn out as the
hottest year on record. Those who doubt that greenhouse gases are
quite the problem they have been cracked up to be by most of the
world’s climatologists have taken comfort from the fact that the
Hadley Centre, part of Britain’s Meteorological Office, reckons the
warmest year since records began was 1998 (see chart 1). Twelve years
without a new record would, the sceptics reckon, be rather a large
lull in what is supposed to be a rising trend. Computer modelling by
the Met Office, though, gives odds-on chances of the lull being
broken.


The fact that no record high happened in the 2000s does not mean that
there was no warming over the decade—trends at scales coarser than the
annual continued to point upwards, and other authorities suggest there
have been record years during the period. Nor was the length of time
without an annual record exceptional. Models simulating centuries of
warming normally have the occasional decade in which no rise in
surface temperatures is observed. This is because heat can be stored
in other parts of the system, such as the oceans, for a time, and thus
not show up on meteorologists’ thermometers.

Indeed, one reason for thinking that the coming year will be hotter
than all known previous ones is that the tropical Pacific is currently
dumping heat. This phenomenon, by which heat that has been stored up
in the sea over the previous few years is released into the
atmosphere, is known as El Niño. A strong Niño contributed to the
record temperatures in 1998. In 2007 and 2008 the opposite phenomenon,
a cooling Niña, was happening. That goes some way to explaining why
those years were chilly by the standards of the 2000s.

And on top of El Niño, there is the sun. The sun’s brightness
fluctuates over an 11-year cycle. Though the fluctuation is not vast,
it is enough to make a difference from peak to trough. In 2009 the sun
was at the bottom of its cycle. Unless it is behaving particularly
strangely, it should, over the next 12 months, begin to brighten.

The Met Office’s forecast was made using the Decadal Prediction
System, or DePreSys (pronounced “depresses”, which is what it
sometimes does to Doug Smith and his colleagues, who run it). Climate
models are normally used to show how the climate’s behaviour will
respond to changes in things like greenhouse-gas levels. But though a
model’s response will, it is hoped, be similar to the real climate’s,
models are caricatures, not portraits. Trying to force one into a
state that looks exactly like the real climate at a specific time, as
prediction requires, will distort it, and it is likely to misbehave as
a result.

DePreSys is an attempt to work round this “initialisation” problem—to
give the model’s caricature not just an all-purpose resemblance to the
way the real climate behaves, but one that captures its pose and
expression at a particular moment. In 2007 the first study using
DePreSys correctly predicted that there would be a few more years
which would set no records. After this, it said, there would be a
definite rise in temperature. More recently, Dr Smith and his team
have been using clusters of computers around Britain to run multiple
models with slightly different initial conditions. Four-fifths of
these runs suggest 2010 will be warmer than any previous year—which
could be taken as odds of four-to-one on. The techniques are still in
their infancy. But they are at least making predictions that can be
checked.

Balancing the books
:
Dr Smith and his colleagues are trying to predict some of the natural
variability to come. Kevin Trenberth of America’s National Centre for
Atmospheric Research wants to understand in detail the natural
variability just seen. His quest gained unexpected prominence when one
of his forcefully expressed e-mails on the subject—“The fact is that
we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a
travesty that we can’t”—found its way into the public domain as one of
thousands of e-mails from the Climatic Research Unit of the University
of East Anglia in the “climategate” furore of November 2009.

Dr Trenberth was not, he has since been at pains to stress, saying
that the relatively unwarmed 2000s were particularly out of the
ordinary. Instead, he was saying that, given the panoply of satellites
and measurement networks that are being installed to monitor the
climate, it should now be possible to identify the places and
processes that hide energy from the prying eyes of climatologists.
That would make it possible to determine what has actually happened to
the energy trapped by increasing levels of greenhouse gases.

For the first part of the decade this turns out to be possible. From
1998 to 2003, although surface temperatures were not rising, a lot of
energy was mopped up by the oceans (see chart 2). This is borne out by
the rise in sea level during the period, which matches (once the
additional effects of melting glaciers and ice sheets are taken into
account) the expansion of the water in the oceans caused by this
heating. Until the middle of the 2000s, therefore, the sums seem to
balance.

It is after that that the problem comes. Runoff’s role in the rising
sea level increases, meaning the fraction attributable to expansion,
and thus the amount of heat taken up by the sea, has fallen (and the
chart therefore levels out). The missing heat must therefore be going
somewhere else. One possibility is that it is being reflected back
into space by changes in cloud cover. The data, however, seem to say
no. America’s CERES programme, the result of observations by seven
different instruments on six different satellites, suggests the Earth
has actually absorbed more energy and reflected away less over the
past few years, rather than the other way round. It is all rather
mysterious.

Nevertheless, while there is a lot of scepticism in, around and about
climate science, none of it is aimed at the first law of
thermodynamics, which says that energy cannot be created or destroyed.
The energy that the sun delivers to the Earth must therefore be equal
to the energy that is reflected back into space, plus that re-emitted
as infra-red radiation, plus that stored in some part of the
atmosphere, the oceans or the land.

The fact that the books cannot currently be balanced is therefore an
admission of ignorance—an ignorance that better, future measurements
should help abolish. That, in turn, should allow predictions of what
the climate will do next, for good or ill, to become significantly
better, and thus deprive climatic bookies of their trade.

————

Britain may get green jobs, but not the sort ministers promise.
Jan 7th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

BRUISED by the worst recession since the second world war, and staring
glumly at a megalithic national debt that their children will be
repaying decades hence, few Britons are keen for finance to make up as
big a slice of the national economy in the future as it has in the
past. Politicians from all parties are keen to talk about new ways for
Britain to earn a living.

One popular idea is to turn to greenery: Britain (like the rest of the
world) must cut its emissions of greenhouse gases in any case, so it
makes sense to profit from the endeavour. The claim that greenery is
the future goes back to the fiscal-stimulus package launched by the
government last year to revive the credit-crunched economy. Gordon
Brown, the prime minister, was beating the drum again in an interview
on January 3rd, claiming that a “strong industrial strategy” would
turn Britain into the world’s “leader in low-carbon industry”.

On the face of it, Britain ought to be attractive for budding green
industrialists. There is plenty of rain and wind for renewable-energy
firms to play with, and a reasonably well-educated and scientifically
literate workforce to build better batteries, turbines and
nuclear-power plants. In normal times finance is generally available.
And ambitious targets to cut emissions ought to ensure a big market to
sell into.

Yet out there in the real world of factories and small businesses, not
much seems to be happening. The day after the prime minister’s
interview, it emerged that, thanks to a dearth of British suppliers,
€1.8 billion (£1.6 billion) of the €2 billion earmarked to build the
world’s largest offshore wind farm in the Thames Estuary would be
going to foreign firms. In August Britain’s only wind-turbine factory,
on the Isle of Wight, shut its doors for good. As countries such as
Denmark, Germany and Japan build big low-carbon industries, Britain,
far from being a world leader, is in danger of “missing the boat”,
warns the EEF, a manufacturers’ organisation.

Official support for greenery is not as generous as it seems. When
analysts at HSBC, a big bank, studied last year’s fiscal-stimulus
plan, they concluded that only around 7% of the spending would go to
the environment—compared with 81% in South Korea, 34% in China and 12%
in America. Andrew Simms, policy director of the New Economics
Foundation, a think-tank, points out that much of the supposedly new
spending had already been announced (a favourite Labour trick).

Roger Salomone, an energy adviser at the EEF, says that, although
things have improved over the past couple of years, much government
support is small, temporary and vaguely defined. The problem is not
just penny-pinching, he argues. After the disastrous experience of
industrial policy in the 1970s and the free-market zealotry of the
Thatcher years, the very phrase “industrial strategy” is suspect in
Whitehall.

Those reluctant to interfere could well point to Spain, where generous
government subsidies created a bubble market in solar energy that has
burst spectacularly. Yet at the moment, says one industry boss,
British ministers seem to want to have their cake and eat it, claiming
to have an industrial policy without running the risk of actually
implementing it.

Not all is lost. There is one part of the environmental industry where
Britain is doing rather well: the traditional British (or Londonish)
activities of trading, lawyering and consulting. British firms advise
on green projects around the world, and the City hosts the world’s
largest active carbon-trading market, the European Carbon Exchange.
But with public hatred of bankers and finance still running strong,
these are the sorts of green jobs that politicians will probably want
to keep quiet about.

###