From The washington Center on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA):

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Embark on a Highly Revealing Latin American Journey Sure to Give Washington Heartburn -
•    After attending the APEC Summit in Peru, Russian leader to visit Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba

•    Could a new order for Russian military equipment be placed in Caracas?

•    Medvedev will not visit Cold War-era ally Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua and snubs Buenos Aires

•    Russia’s visit should communicate a message to President-elect Barack Obama: do not forget Latin America, because Russia has not

•    Will the Obama administration back up Bush’s decision to re-constitute Fourth Fleet?

After attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima on November 21-22, Russian president Dmitry Medvedev will embark on a short regional tour, where he will meet the leaders of Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba, for which Moscow is intensely motivated for different reasons.

The selection of the countries that the Russian leader will visit is not as surprising as those not included in his itinerary. Nevertheless, each country – even host nation Peru – is to some degree an ally of Russia, and a visit by Medvedev will keep the Russian flag flying high in the region. All countries that will be visited by the Russian leader, with the exception of Peru, are currently experiencing somewhat strained relations with Washington, and are advocates of a less dominant American role in the integration of the Western Hemisphere.

Even if no particular agreement is reached with the countries Medvedev is to visit the tour should serve as a reminder to the Bush White House, as well as incoming President Barack Obama, that Russia has not forgotten Latin America, and is now beginning to consider it Moscow’s backyard, just as Washington has regarded the Caucasus as its own fiefdom. The meeting could also result in a new Venezuelan weapons purchase as Medvedev is scheduled to extend the $355 million credit to Havana. Both the U.S. and Russia know that Washington is a wounded regional player and could be surpassed by the Kremlin, unless the former is proposed to constructively engage in a respectful and well-meaning policy to the rest of the hemisphere.
APEC: What Can Be Expected?

The APEC summit follows upon last week’s G-20 meeting, where the major point of discussion was the ongoing world financial crisis. In a telegram sent to Peruvian President Alan Garcia to confirm his attendance, Medvedev wrote that he hoped that the APEC participants “will have a constructive dialogue on the wide range of measures aimed at sustained development of the Asia-Pacific region.” The Russian leader went on to say that “one of the key aspects in this respect is the search for best solutions for such urgent problems as the prices for food and energy resources, the climate change.”

Apart from his APEC meeting commitments, Medvedev will look forward to personal meetings with fellow leaders in attendance. For example, Kyodo reported that a bilateral meeting will take place between Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso and Medvedev during the summit. RIA Novosti has mentioned that Medvedev will also meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao.

The Kremlin leader may also decide to indicate that Moscow is soliciting Russian membership in the World Trade Organization as well as push for greater Russian integration into the APEC economic region. This could be interpreted as part of a continuing initiative in which Moscow will invite the economies of Latin America and the Pacific toward closer ties with Russia as a possible major trading partner. According to a report by RIA Novosti, trade between Russia and Latin America has exhibited an annual growth rate of 25-30% over the past few years, and is expected to hit a record of $15 billion in 2008.

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Brazil: A Rising Star
After the APEC meeting, Medvedev will go on to visit Brazil, which is in itself hardly startling. During the Vladimir Putin years, Russia courted Brazil and attempted to strengthen ties with the South American giant by dispatching Russian cabinet ministers to visit the country. For example, Russian Security Council secretary, Nikolai Patruchev, has been quoted by the Russian news agency Pravda as observing that “Brazil is the leader of Latin America and because of that we are interested in creating a strategic relationship.”

Agreements between both countries range from commerce to education, military, and space cooperation. Nevertheless, Russia is seeking greater influence in Brazil along with a number of other countries such as France, China, South Africa, as well as India.

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Venezuela: Petrodollars-r-Us
Meetings between high level Russian officials and representatives in Venezuela are nothing new. Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez has visited Russia over half a dozen times since taking power. Meetings by the leaders of both countries often result in a purchase of Russian military equipment in exchange for Venezuelan petro-dollars.

The Russian visit comes on the heels of the visit of two Russian Tu-16 medium-range bombers to Venezuela this past summer. The Russians have also dispatched elements of its fleet led by the guided-missile cruiser Peter the Great to do a port visit as well as carry out war games with their Venezuelan counterparts in the Caribbean. This has raised some Cold War-era alarms in Washington, as it is the first time since the end of the Cold War that the Russian military enters the Western Hemisphere. In mid-October, the Russian news agency Kommersant mentioned that Russian and Venezuelan officials were discussing the Venezuelan purchase of Russian BMP-3 armored vehicles; Medvedev and Chavez are expected to sign the contract during the Russian leader’s upcoming visit. In addition Russia is building a Kalishnikov-assault rifle factory on Venezuelan soil, as well a complimentary one nearby to manufacture the rifles’ ammunition. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has declared that “the weaponry we supply [to Latin America] is not offensive […] these are purely defensive means in their technical specifications.”

Lavrov is scheduled to meet today with conservative Colombian president Alvaro Uribe and foreign minister Jaime Bermudez to discuss possible Russian investment in Colombia. In an attempt to offset Venezuela’s ties to Russia, Colombia has increased its high-level contacts with Moscow this past year. Colombian vice president Francisco Santos traveled to Russia in June to attend the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, and defense minister Juan Manuel Santos attended an Interpol summit held in Moscow in October. Though Colombia is not an APEC member, Uribe’s government has displayed an increasing interest in generating closer economic links with Russia, fearing that it is courting political isolation by having the outgoing Bush administration being one of its few close friends.
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Cuba: The Forgotten Ally
Russian-Cuban relations will always be compared to their standing during the height of the Cold War, when the Caribbean island was the Soviet Union’s strongest ally in the Western Hemisphere. The relationship decayed after the dissolution of the USSR. Even after Putin met with Fidel Castro in Cuba in 2000, the resulting rapport did not come close to what it once was.

The meeting will bring together Medvedev and Fidel’s brother, Raul Castro. It is unclear what the delegations will discuss, though they will probably focus on ways to promote greater cooperation. Early in November, Moscow approved a state loan to Cuba for $355 million. The loan’s provisions required that it had to be used to purchase Russian goods and services.

In an interview with COHA, Wayne Smith, former head of the U.S. interests section in Havana and the director of the Cuba Program at the Center for International Policy, explained “I don’t foresee anything major coming out of this meeting, Russia’s interest seems to be centered around Venezuela these days.” Smith went on to mention that “a Russian military delegation visited Havana some months ago, and there was speculation about growing military cooperation between both countries but nothing came out of it.”

The former U.S. diplomat mentioned that when military exercises between Russia and Venezuela take place Cuba is invited to participate, “that would be extremely interesting.” Indeed, such a scenario may add more fuel to the fire of Bush administration officials who promoted the restoration of the Fourth Fleet which had been dismantled in 1950, for the purpose of patrolling Latin American waters when it came to providing medical and humanitarian services, as well as project U.S. power in the Western Hemisphere.

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The Other Side of the Coin:
The countries Medvedev chose to visit provide some indication of Russian foreign policy priorities when it comes to the Western Hemisphere. For example, Argentina, which at one point was considered an important regional power and to this day has strong commercial ties with Russia, has been largely ignored. In 2006, there were reports that Russia was attempting to sell military equipment to Argentina; however, nothing materialized. Such rumors have resurfaced again in early November 2008, when a report in the ITAR-TASS Russian state news agency quoted the director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, Mikhail Dmitriyev, as saying that there is a growing trend of military technical cooperation between Russia and Argentina. The article mentions concrete plans for cooperation, including radar stations and a “helicopter programme, including supplies and setting up of centres for servicing helicopter hardware, possibly, not only in Argentina but also at a regional scale.” However, even this possibility for greater cooperation with Argentina is not enough to compel the Russian leader stop over even briefly in the Argentine capital.

Likewise Nicaragua, under the leadership of Daniel Ortega, Moscow’s ally during the Cold War, is being overlooked. Ortega could use some international support, particularly after the controversial results of recent municipal elections, in which the ruling Sandinista party was judged the winner in a close vote. The elections were held almost without international observers and there have been widespread accusations of electoral fraud. The civic group Ethics and Transparency said it had recorded irregularities in 32 percent of the polling places it monitored. An AP report quotes State Department deputy spokesman Robert Wood as saying “unfortunately, the [Nicaraguan] Supreme Electoral Council’s decision to not accredit credible domestic and international election observers has made it difficult to […] properly assess the outcome of the elections.” Furthermore, Washington is not amused as Nicaragua has been, so far, the only country (besides Russia) to recognize the independence of Georgia’s breakaway republics, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This past summer, Russia made a military incursion into Georgia and subsequently, to Washington’s anger, recognized both breakaway regions as independent states.

Nevertheless, a RIA Novosti article briefly mentions that the leaders of both of the aforementioned countries, Argentina’s Cristina de Kirchner and Nicaragua’s Ortega, as well as Uruguay’s Tabare Vazquez, are expected to visit Moscow in the coming months.

One should note that Peru itself would not have been on Medvedev’s agenda if it had not been the organizer of the APEC 2008 summit. Lima and Moscow maintained good defense relations during the Soviet era, including major purchases of Soviet warplanes and tanks during that period. In mid-October, Mercopress published a report that Chile is continuing with its aggressive acquisition policy by purchasing F-16 warplanes from Holland, as well as from the U.S. The report explains that “when all [plans] are delivered Chile’s Air Force will have 44 F16, probably the strongest and most modern in the continent [with the probable exception of Venezuela].”

When one contemplates Chilean modernization initiatives, its historically antagonistic relations with Peru come to mind. Peru’s largely hardware is mostly Russian or Soviet-made, including Sukhoi and MiG warplanes, as well as Mi-type helicopters. President Garcia may attempt to arrange a personal meeting with Medvedev to discuss bilateral defense issues and the possible agreements for upgrades of Russian military equipment. Interviewed by COHA, a senior Peruvian army official explained that “Russia may not see Peru as a critical ally, but the Peruvian military certainly regards Russian military equipment as critical to its national defense […] the Garcia administration must safeguard this strategic relationship.”

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Conclusions
Medvedev’s abbreviated Latin America tour provides an idea of the key countries that Russian strategic policy sees as being key to its national interests. Since a number of Latin American governments in power are determined to withdraw from any form of dependence on Washington, the Russian leader is likely to seize the opportunity and further develop alliances with nations in the region, other than Brazil and Venezuela.

The incoming Obama administration soon will have to begin assessing its ties to various Latin American nations and the nature of its ties with the region. Policy decisions such as the ongoing and largely ineffective Cuban embargo, and a confrontational stance toward Venezuela (illustrated by the re-establishment of the Fourth Fleet) are likely to be revisited by the new administration and could be rejected. Medvedev’s present round of calls, as well as a growing presence by extra-hemispheric actors like the European Union, China, India and Iran, demonstrate that the region is open to new relationships outside of the hemisphere and is getting noticed.

This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Fellow Alex Sánchez
November 19th, 2008

CUBA: No Choice but to Adapt to Storms.
By Patricia Grogg

HAVANA, Nov 12 (IPS) - Three hurricanes have caused a total of 10 billion dollars in damages in Cuba in less than three months, according to the latest official estimates, while highlighting the vulnerability of Cuban housing to storms.

“As a result of climate change, hurricanes are going to become increasingly frequent and intense. We have no choice but to adapt,” President Raúl Castro said this week on a tour of Camaguey and Las Tunas, two east-central provinces whose coastal areas were pounded by Hurricane Paloma on Saturday.

Although the hurricane quickly weakened after making landfall, the combined action of the wind, torrential rains and sea surges left hundreds of families in coastal towns like Santa Cruz del Sur in Camaguey and Guayabal in neighbouring Las Tunas homeless.

In Guayabal, 110 homes were completely destroyed, while the rest of the 273 dwellings in the town suffered damages to varying degrees, with a one-metre surge driven 700 metres inland. The streets were littered with telephone poles.

In Santa Cruz del Sur, meanwhile, 9,889 homes were damaged, including 1,353 that were totally destroyed, when a four-metre storm surge flooded one and a half kilometers inland.

“My life was saved, but I lost everything,” one woman told the local TV station on Sunday.

Televised images showed the destruction caused by Paloma in that town on the southern coast of Cuba just a few hours after the 76th anniversary of the worst catastrophe in the history of Cuba: a Nov. 9, 1932 cyclone that claimed 3,000 lives in the same area.

“There are still people alive who survived that storm on Nov. 9, 1932. Entire families were killed. It was terrible,” Digna García, a retired high school teacher from Camaguey, 534 km from Havana, told IPS.

This time around, everyone in the area was evacuated in a timely fashion.

“They are costly measures, but it is difficult to think about what would have happened if we had not evacuated,” said Castro, who told local residents that their homes would be rebuilt as soon as possible, in the same area, but farther from the sea. He also promised that the belongings lost by families would be replaced.

He said Cuba must get ready to “coexist” with hurricanes, and added that a total of 47 municipalities were affected by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which walloped the country between Aug. 30 and Sept. 9, and Paloma.

“We are spending what we have and what we do not have (on purchases of food and construction materials),” he said.

The governing Communist Party newspaper Granma reported Wednesday that Gustav and Ike caused 2.07 and 7.27 billion dollars in losses, respectively.

Castro, meanwhile, said that with the damages caused by Paloma, “we are almost reaching 10 billion dollars” in losses.

Although Cuba’s internationally acclaimed disaster prevention system run by the Civil Defence System has kept the loss of human life to a minimum, the material damages have been severe, aggravating, among other things, the housing shortage, already acknowledged by the government as one of the country’s most pressing problems.

Granma reported that the housing that was destroyed or seriously damaged by Paloma was added to the “half a million units damaged by Gustav and Ike.” In the coastal regions of central Cuba, most houses are made of wood with tile roofs.

Experts say the combined effects of the increasingly aggressive climate, poor quality of construction materials, lack of regular maintenance of infrastructure and location of homes in low-lying areas close to the sea make coastal towns especially vulnerable to the frequent hurricanes and tropical storms.

In the wake of Ike and Gustav, the National Housing Institute reported that only reinforced concrete roofs withstood the winds, and that the worst damages were sustained by homes with thatched roofs or roofing materials of wood or fiber-cement tiles, all of which are common in rural areas.

“We are going to try to lay the foundation for a construction materials industry, because until every house in this country has a solid roof, we will be replacing roofs over and over again,” said the president.

Earlier this year, the total housing shortage in Cuba was estimated at 600,000 units. A programme launched in 2005 was originally aimed at building 100,000 new dwellings a year, but the figure had to be scaled back to a more realistic number, and was cut in half, said the authorities.

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A Thaw Fuelled by Oil?
Patricia Grogg

HAVANA, Oct 29 (IPS) - The discovery of a significant offshore oilfield in Cuban waters in the Gulf of Mexico could persuade the United States to modify its policy towards the Caribbean island nation, experts say, while warning that this possibility could also entail risks. “When there are important economic interests at play, in terms of market and resources that are strategic for Washington, the ideological components that have driven U.S. Cuba policy come tumbling down,” Cuban academic and researcher Luis Rena Fernandez told IPS. The expert explained that he is not saying the four-decade embargo will be lifted “overnight, but it’s obvious that these interests will start lobbying to eliminate the restrictions” that prevent U.S. companies from participating in a possible oil boom in Cuba.

“Because it is such a major resource, and if the oilfields discovered are, in fact, truly significant — both in size and in the quality of the reserves –, then that play of forces will be unleashed,” noted Fernández, assistant director of the Centre for the Study of the Hemisphere and the United States (CEHSEU).

Cuba, which currently produces some 80,000 barrels a day of high-sulphur heavy oil, that covers half of its domestic needs, is now focusing on the abundance of oil that is thought to lie under the seabed of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael Tenreyro, director of exploration at Cupet, Cuba’s state petroleum company, said the area has a potential yield of more than 20 billion barrels of extractable crude, an appealing hypothesis that could be confirmed once the Spanish oil company Repsol resumes its drilling operations in mid 2009.

The Spanish firm was the first to take on the challenge posed by Cuba in mid-1999 when it opened up a bidding process for 59 exploration blocks in a 112,000-square-kilometre area in Cuban waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which is bordered by Mexico and the U.S.

The consortium, which two years ago formed an association with the Norwegian oil firm Norsk Hydro and India’s ONGC Videsh to explore six blocks in Cuba’s EEZ, drilled its first oil well in 2004 with a result that only partially satisfied initial expectations and was considered unprofitable.

Besides Repsol, companies from Norway, India, Malaysia, Vietnam and Venezuela are involved in projects in the EEZ, while Canadian, Vietnamese, Chinese, Venezuelan and French companies are working in what is considered the most promising area, the northeast coast of the archipelago, both on land and offshore.

The heavy crude strip stretches over more than 118,000 kilometres between the Havana and Cardenas Bays, in the western province of Matanzas. It has been divided into 43 blocks, 15 offshore and the rest on land. Of that total, 10 have already been awarded to companies, one is under negotiation, and 32 are still available.

Brazil’s Petrobras and similar companies from Russia are also presumably interested in participating.

“Negotiations with Petrobras have advanced considerably and we hope to have good news soon,” Tenreyro remarked to foreign correspondents during a recent tour of several wells in full operation.

***

The expert, with 35 years of experience in the oil industry, acknowledges that the U.S. embargo “entails an additional difficulty” for Cuba’s oil business partners, but says that, at the same time, for U.S. companies it means missing out on good “business opportunities.”

Others also alert against the potential risk that Cuba would face if it turns into a significant oil producer, being located so close to the United States. Fernández believes that a military attack from the U.S. is a possibility that “can never be ruled out,” although he doesn’t see it as likely in this case.

In his opinion, “the possibility of a U.S. military intervention in Cuba would increase in the event of an acute economic crisis accompanied by social unrest and the government’s inability to control it,” and such a scenario would involve relatively low costs for Washington.

***

“An oil boom, in contrast, would lead to a major improvement in living conditions in general, the country would be strengthened economically, politically and socially as a result of the availability of large oil revenues, which would also provide a significant degree of ‘invulnerability’ and development capacity,” Fernández added.

In this sense, the country would bolster its “defence capacity and, naturally, the people’s support for the cause of resistance” would be boosted, concluded the expert, for whom U.S. strategists should take into account the impact that a fiercely-fought war so close to home would have on their national security.

In the late 1970s, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea established a 200-nautical-mile jurisdiction for coastal states, based on which an EEZ is created, where the country enjoys sovereign rights over natural resources.

The sea border that divides Cuba from the United States, as well as Mexico and other neighbouring countries, was traced in the early 1980s. The fact that the area is surrounded by mature oil fields stokes Cuba’s optimism about its potential for crude and gas production.
 

India’s humble rickshaw goes solar.
by Elizabeth Roche Mon Oct 13, 2008.  NEW DELHI (AFP) - It’s been touted as a solution to urban India’s traffic woes, chronic pollution and fossil fuel dependence, as well as an escape from backbreaking human toil. A state-of-the-art, solar powered version of the humble cycle-rickshaw promises to deliver on all this and more.

The “soleckshaw,” unveiled this month in New Delhi, is a motorised cycle rickshaw that can be pedalled normally or run on a 36-volt solar battery.

Developed by the state-run Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), prototypes are receiving a baptism of fire by being road-tested in Old Delhi’s Chandni Chowk area.

One of the city’s oldest and busiest markets, dating back to the Moghul era, Chandni Chowk comprises a byzantine maze of narrow, winding streets, choked with buses, cars, scooters, cyclists and brave pedestrians.

“The most important achievement will be improving the lot of rickshaw drivers,” said Pradip Kumar Sarmah, head of the non-profit Centre for Rural Development.

“It will dignify the job and reduce the labour of pedalling. From rickshaw pullers, they will become rickshaw drivers,” Sarmah said.

India has an estimated eight million cycle-rickshaws.

The makeover includes FM radios and powerpoints for charging mobile phones during rides.

Gone are the flimsy metal and wooden frames that give the regular Delhi rickshaws a tacky, sometimes dubious look.

The “soleckshaw,” which has a top speed of 15 kilometres (9.3 miles) per hour, has a sturdier frame and sprung, foam seats for up to three people.

The fully-charged solar battery will power the rickshaw for 50 to 70 kilometres (30 to 42 miles). Used batteries can be deposited at a centralised solar-powered charging station and replaced for a nominal fee.

If the tests go well, the “soleckshaw” will be a key transport link between sporting venues at the 2010 Commonwealth Games in New Delhi.

“Rickshaws were always environment friendly. Now this gives a totally new image that would be more acceptable to the middle-classes,” said Anumita Roychoudhary of the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment.

“Rickshaws have to be seen as a part of the solution for modern traffic woes and pollution. They have never been the problem. The problem is the proliferation of automobiles using fossil fuels,” she said.

Initial public reaction to the “soleckshaw” has been generally favourable, and the rickshaw pullers have few doubts about its benefits.

“Pedalling the rickshaw was very difficult for me,” said Bappa Chatterjee, 25, who migrated to the capital from West Bengal and is one of the 500,000 pullers in Delhi.

“I used to suffer chest pains and shortage of breath going up inclines. This is so much easier.

“Earlier, when people hailed us it was like, ‘Hey you rickshaw puller!’ Police used to harass us, slapping fines even abusing us for what they called wrong parking. Now people look at me with respect,” Chatterjee said.

Mohammed Matin Ansari, another migrant from eastern Bihar state, said the new model offered parity with car, bus and scooter drivers.

“Now we are as good as them,” he said.

Indian authorities have big dreams for the “soleckshaw.”

India’s Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal who hailed the invention for its “zero carbon foot print” said it should be used beyond the confines of Delhi.

“Soleckshaws would be ideal for small families visiting the Taj Mahal,” he told AFP.

At present battery-operated buses ferry people to the iconic monument in Agra — but their limited numbers cannot cope with the heavy tourist rush.

CSIR director Sinha said he hoped an advanced version of the “soleckshaw” with a car-like body would become a viable alternative to the “small car” favoured by Indian middle class families.

“Greenhouse gas emissions are showing an increasing trend year on year and 60 percent of this comes from the global transport sector.

“In the age of global warming, the soleckshaw, with improvements, can be successfully developed as competition for all the petrol and diesel run small cars,” Sinha said.

Under Bush, US Influence in Latin America Wanes.
Saturday 11 October 2008, by: The Associated Press

From left to right, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Bolivia’s Evo Morales and Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva forge alliances at a regional integration meeting in Manaos, Brazil, in early October 2008. (Photo: Antonio Lacerda / EPA)

Quito, Ecuador - In a matter of weeks, a Russian naval squadron will arrive in the waters off Latin America for the first time since the Cold War. It is already getting a warm welcome from some in a region where the influence of the United States is in decline.

“The U.S. Fourth Fleet can come to Latin America but a Russian fleet can’t?” said Ecuador’s president, Rafael Correa. “If you ask me, any country and any fleet that wants can visit us. We’re a country of open doors.”

The United States remains the strongest outside power in Latin America by most measures, including trade, military cooperation and the sheer size of its embassies. Yet U.S. clout in what it once considered its backyard has sunk to perhaps the lowest point in decades. As Washington turned its attention to the Middle East, Latin America swung to the left and other powers moved in.

The United States’ financial crisis is not helping. Latin American countries forced by Washington to swallow painful austerity measures in the 1980s and 1990s are aghast at the U.S. failure to police its own markets.

“We did our homework - and they didn’t, they who’ve been telling us for three decades what to do,” the man who presides over Latin America’s largest economy, President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva of Brazil, complained bitterly.

Latin America’s more than 550 million people now “have every reason to view the U.S. as a banana republic,” says analyst Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington. “U.S. lectures to Latin Americans about excess greed and lack of accountability have long rung hollow, but today they sound even more ridiculous.”

From 2002 through 2007, the U.S. image eroded in all six Latin American countries polled by the Pew organization, especially in Venezuela, Argentina and Bolivia. (The others were Brazil, Peru and Mexico.) People surveyed in 18 Latin American countries rated President Bush among the least popular leaders in 2007, along with President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and just ahead of basement-bound Fidel Castro of Cuba, according to the Latinobarometro group of Chile.

In three years of presidential elections ending last year, Latin Americans chose mostly leftist leaders, and only Colombia and El Salvador elected unalloyed pro-U.S. chief executives. In May, the prestigious U.S. Council on Foreign Relations declared the era of U.S. hegemony in the Americas over. And in September, Bolivia and Venezuela both expelled their U.S. ambassadors, accusing them of meddling.

Along with the loss in political standing has come a decline in economic power. U.S. direct investment in Latin America slid from 30 percent to 20 percent of the total from 1998 to 2007, according to the U.N. Economic Commission on Latin American and the Caribbean.

The U.S. still does $560 billion in trade with Latin America, but in the meantime other countries are muscling in. China’s trade with Latin America jumped from $10 billion in 2000 to $102.6 billion last year. In May, a state-owned Chinese company agreed to buy a Peruvian copper mine for $2.1 billion.

Other countries are also biting into U.S. military sales in the region. Boeing Co. is vying with finalists from France and Sweden for the sale of 36 jet fighters to Brazil. Venezuela’s Chavez has committed to buying more than $4 billion in Russian arms, from Sukhoi jet fighters to Kalashnikov assault rifles. In April, Brazil and Russia agreed to jointly design top-line jet fighters and satellite-launch vehicles, and Brazil is getting technology from France to build a submarine.

“Similar deals could have been made with the United States had it been willing to share its technology,” said Geraldo Cavagnari, of the University of Campinas near Sao Paulo.

Last month, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin offered to help Chavez develop nuclear power. Even Colombia, the staunchest U.S. ally in South America, isn’t limiting its options. After expressing alarm about the Russian warships a week ago, its defense minister, Juan Manuel Santos, promptly headed for Russia himself to discuss “better relations in defense.” Chavez says he expects to hold joint Russian-Venezuelan naval exercises as early as November.

Bolivia also is looking to deepen ties with Russia and Iran.

Although the Islamic republic’s ambassador has yet to arrive in South America’s poorest country, its top diplomat there announced Friday that Iran will open two low-cost public health clinics.

And while Bolivia’s only announced Russian hardware purchase is five helicopters for civil defense, Moscow’s ambassador told the AP - after Bolivia booted the U.S. ambassador - that Russia has every right to help Latin American nations arm themselves.

“We know of many historical cases of U.S. intervention in Latin American countries,” said the diplomat, Leonid Golubev.

Thomas Shannon, U.S. assistant secretary of state for the hemisphere, wouldn’t comment directly on whether the U.S. has lost influence in Latin America. But he added that there is no doubt that the U.S. still holds most of the military power in the Caribbean, and said it has no interest in reviving “Cold War rhetoric.” Shannon also noted that overall U.S. aid to the region will reach $2.2 billion for 2009, to total more than $14 billion during Bush’s presidency.

However, critics point out that roughly half that aid is for the military or counternarcotics, and that Washington sends more money annually to Israel alone. Even U.S. giving has been dwarfed by Chavez’s checkbook diplomacy, which easily eclipses U.S. aid between outright gifts and discounted oil.

His largesse has lured several longtime U.S. friends. Honduras’ president, Manuel Zelaya, said last month that after pleading with Washington and the World Bank, he accepted $300 million a year from Chavez for agricultural investment to help fight rising food prices.

“Allies, friends, did not help me when I asked,” he said.

Costa Rica’s president, Oscar Arias, says Venezuela offers Latin America about four or five times as much money as the United States. Costa Rica has become the 19th member of Petrocaribe, through which Chavez sells Caribbean and Central American nations cut-rate oil at very low interest.

The diminished profile of the U.S. in Latin America comes after a history of welcomed influence dating back to President Franklin Roosevelt’s “Good Neighbor” policy of the 1930s, which emphasized cooperation and trade over military intervention. There have been major bailouts, such as Washington’s $20 billion rescue of Mexico in the 1994 peso devaluation crisis. As former Assistant Secretary of State Otto Reich noted, “We are the assistance bureau of first choice for the region.”

But the U.S. has an ugly legacy of covert intervention in countries including Chile, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Cuba. Chile’s center-left president, Michele Bachelet, was jailed and tortured by a U.S.-backed military dictatorship in the 1970s. She recently recalled telling Washington’s ambassador to Chile an old joke: “Some say the only reason there’s never been a coup in the United States is because there’s no U.S. Embassy in the United States.”

The United States has also long served as chief educator to Latin America’s elite. Correa is among its presidents with a U.S. graduate degree - though that didn’t stop him from accusing the CIA of infiltrating his military, or refusing to renew a lease for U.S. counterdrug missions to fly out of Ecuador.

With the U.S. facing its own financial crisis, it’s unlikely to be able to leverage economic influence in Latin America anytime soon. Sen. Barack Obama’s senior adviser on Latin America, Dan Restrepo, acknowledges that his candidate is essentially proposing a symbolic shift in style - albeit adding a special White House envoy for the Americas.

“Barack doesn’t see the United States as the savior of the Americas, but as a constructive partner,” Restrepo told the AP.

Reich, an adviser to Sen. John McCain who served three Republican presidents in the region, put it even more bluntly.

“No matter who is elected in November, there is not going to be any money for Latin America,” he said. “Latin Americans expecting financial resources, any kind of help from the United States, they are barking up the wrong tree.”

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Associated Press writers Dan Keane in Bolivia, Eduardo Gallardo in Chile and Stan Lehman in Brazil contributed to this report.

Raul Castro seeks alternatives to Venezuela.

By LUIZ ALBERTO MONIZ BANDEIRA,  www.project-syndicate.org) Friday, July 18, 2008, from Brasilia. and posted on The Japan Times.

Raul Castro has begun a gradual process of changing Cuba’s economy and international relations. Within Cuba, he hopes to legitimize his government by improving standards of living. Outside of Cuba, he does not want to be held captive by Cuba’s one international supporter: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Castro believes in giving farm workers greater incentives. He has authorized the sale of farm machinery and tools — centralized until now — directly to farmers, as well as handing over idle land to private cooperatives and other organizations that request them. He also canceled the debts of some small producers and raised the prices paid by the state for milk and meat.

In another measure intended to improve the lives of ordinary Cubans, he has removed restrictions on acquiring computers, microwave ovens and other appliances. Cuban officials stress that the purpose of these changes is to increase efficiency, “not alter the socialist model.”

But, like China and Vietnam, the government will have to embrace the market more openly if it is really to improve living conditions. Only with foreign investment and economic liberalization — a process that has already begun in some measure — can Cuba hope to offer its 11.2 million people more consumer goods and comfort, improve the social welfare system, and rehabilitate the country’s infrastructure.

This is essential not only in order to build a “better socialism,” as Castro has promised, but especially to legitimize the continuity of the regime established by his brother Fidel’s revolution.

For now, Cuba is politically stable. The evolution of its internal situation leaves no doubt about the consolidation of Raul Castro’s authority. There is somewhat greater freedom of expression, with debates and criticism of several aspects of Cuba’s socialist model, such as low salaries and the dual monetary system, which has caused income inequality by favoring those who work in tourism and for foreign companies.

But greater political liberalization is unlikely in the short or medium term. Cuba’s government argues that America’s financial and political support for the opposition impedes that.

Nevertheless, with Felipe Perez Roque as minister of foreign affairs, Cuba continues to conduct a pragmatic foreign policy. Venezuela and China have become Cuba’s main economic and commercial partners, and may continue to be so.

But Raul Castro wants to avoid dependence on one or two countries alone. His objective is to diversify Cuba’s foreign relations and prevent problems that any change in these countries could cause his regime — a constant imperative since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

As a result, relations with Latin America’s giants, Brazil and Mexico, are being put on a more normal footing and relations with Spain are being improved. Moreover, negotiations with the European Union have resumed, greater understanding with the Vatican is being fostered, and Castro himself has publicly suggested the possibility of dialogue with the United States.

Although Venezuela provides between $1.5 and $2 billion annually to Cuba, Castro regards Chavez as something of a headache, owing to his rhetoric and his confrontational attitude with several countries. Chavez is simply not the right person to help Cuba normalize its international relations.

Moreover, Venezuela has its own economic problems, despite its enormous dollar reserves. Shortages of medicines and basic foodstuffs such as milk, sugar, eggs, beef, and chicken abound as a consequence of price controls and mounting inflation. This reminds Castro of the economic dislocations that led the Soviet Union to slash its aid to Cuba in the years before it collapsed.

Venezuela’s problems make collaboration and support from Brazil — the Southern Hemisphere’s largest industrial power — even more important. During President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s visit to Havana in January 2008, Brazil and Cuba signed several economic and commercial agreements.

Indeed, Brazil doubled its loans to Cuba for the purchase of foodstuffs and medicines, to $200 million, and has arranged projects to rehabilitate Cuba’s infrastructure with the participation of Brazilian companies.

Other agreements include a project in which Brazil’s state energy company, Petrobras, and Cuba’s Cupet will extract oil in the Gulf of Mexico, and another that involves technological aid from the Brazilian company Pessquisa Agropecurria for the development of soya production in Cuba.

As these initiatives suggest, rapprochement with Brazil and Mercosur appears to be Cuba’s best international alternative as Raul Castro seeks to avoid falling into America’s economic orbit.

Luiz Alberto Moniz Bandeira, a former professor at the University of Brasilia, is the author of more than 20 books.

A new Americas Society and Council of the Americas (AS/COA) white paper details corporate commitment to supporting the integration of Hispanic immigrants. Drawing from original research and site visits in Atlanta, GA, and New Orleans, LA, the paper highlights the challenges to the integration of recent immigrants, the contributions of Hispanic immigrants to the U.S. economy, and innovative efforts by business to smooth the integration of Hispanic communities and workers into the social and economic fabric of the U.S.

About the White Paper: The new AS/COA white paper, U.S. Business and Hispanic Integration: Expanding the Economic Contributions of Immigrants, demonstrates a collective commitment by private sector leaders to integrating immigrant communities and offers best practices for encouraging Hispanic workforce development and community integration. It features case studies of business′ efforts to facilitate and promote integration and highlights Hispanic contributions to the U.S. economy. Funded by a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation, the AS/COA Hispanic Integration Initiative is engaging private-sector leaders in support of initiatives that promote Hispanic integration, through meetings held in New York, NY, Atlanta, GA, and New Orleans, LA.

There will be a press conference in Wahington DC on Wednesday, July 23rd, and a main meeting on Capitol Hill on Thursday, July 24th.

on Wednesday the confirmed speakers are: Myles Gladstone, Vice President, Miller & Long Co, Inc.;
Susan Minushkin, Deputy Director, Pew Hispanic Center;
Christopher Sabatini, Senior Director of Policy, Americas Society and Council of the Americas;
and Susan Segal, President & CEO, Americas Society and Council of the Americas.

on Thursday the main event title is: “U.S. Business and Hispanic Integration” and will be held at:

2359 Rayburn House Office Building (Capitol Hill)
Washington, DC - Thursday, July 24, 2008.

Registration: 10:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
Program: 10:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.

with confirmed participants: Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY)
Rep. Charles A. González (TX)
Rep. Rubén Hinojosa (TX)
Rep. Michael M. Honda (CA)
Remarks also to be provided by members of the AS/COA Hispanic Integration National Business Council and Advisory Board along with AS/COA:

Lourdes Diaz - Senior Director of Diversity Relations, Sodexo, Inc.

Peter Johnson - Rockefeller Family and Associates

Bob Merchent - Vice President, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding

Fred Niehaus - Senior Vice President of Public Affairs, The Western Union Company

John Ozburn - Vice President of Human Resources, Tecta America Corp.

Christopher Sabatini - Senior Director of Policy, Americas Society and Council of the Americas

Susan Segal - President and CEO, Americas Society and Council of the Americas.
The new AS/COA white paper, U.S. Business and Hispanic Integration: Expanding the Economic Contributions of Immigrants, will demonstrate a collective commitment by private sector leaders to integrating immigrant communities and offer best practices for encouraging Hispanic workforce development and community integration. It features case studies of business’ efforts to facilitate and promote integration and highlights Hispanic contributions to the U.S. economy.

Funded by a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation, the AS/COA Hispanic Integration Initiative is engaging private-sector leaders in support of initiatives that promote Hispanic integration. Through meetings held in New York, NY, Atlanta, GA, and New Orleans, LA, we have brought nationally and locally-operating businesses together with public sector officials and community groups to exchange lessons learned and best practices. A National Business Council—companies at the forefront of integration efforts—anchors and provides guidance to the initiative. Findings document the many major U.S. corporations that already offer (or sponsor) programs that promote integration.
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Further information: Please contact Jorge Merino at  jmerino at as-coa.org or (202) 659-8989. For media inquires: Caitlin Miner-Le Grand, 212-277-8384,  cminerlegrand at as-coa.org
Americas Society is the premier forum dedicated to education, debate, and dialogue in the Americas. Its mission is to foster an understanding of the contemporary political, social, and economic issues confronting Latin America, the Caribbean, and Canada, and to increase public awareness and appreciation of the diverse cultural heritage of the Americas and the importance of the inter-American relationship.

The Council of the Americas is the premier international business organization whose members share a common commitment to economic and social development, open markets, the rule of law, and democracy throughout the Western Hemisphere. The Council’s membership consists of leading international companies representing a broad spectrum of sectors, including banking and finance, consulting services, consumer products, energy and mining, manufacturing, media, technology, and transportation.