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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on December 11th, 2012
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)
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| Quote of the day
Climate change was predicted to arrive tomorrow but it is happening today. For this reason, the moment for climate justice has arrived.![]()
Edward Cameron, World Resources Institute and Tara Shine, Mary Robinson Foundation.
SOUTHNEWS
No. 20, 10 December 2012
SOUTHNEWS is a service of the South Centre to provide information and news on topical issues from a South perspective.
Visit the South Centre’s website: www.southcentre.org.
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Green thinking takes root in midst of desert in Doha climate talks
Are oil-rich Gulf states, once a byword for waste and excess, really now leading the world on sustainable development?
The signing of a partnership between the Qatar Foundation and the Postdam Institute for a new climate change research institute in Qatar. (Photograph: IISD)
One of the great surprises for the 15,000 negotiators and others here in Doha for the climate talks is not the breakneck speed of development in the gas-rich emirate, or the displays of wealth and the giant construction projects, but the possible dawn of reality.
Until recently, the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states were the epicentre of unsustainable global development, a byword for waste, excess and ecological irresponsibility. Their huge consumption of natural resources and flouting of nature on the back of oil and gas production shocked even hard-nosed observers of global oil wealth.
Well, we may have to change our views. From my hotel window, I can see 14 monster buildings being built, each to a much higher energy standard than the law demands in the US or most of Europe. Down the road is a new $70m (£43m) test-bed for carbon capture, the beginnings of a 200 megawatt solar power station, a $1bn photovoltaic manufacturing plant, new waste treatment plants, a pilot project to grow food in the desert with saltwater, and a fledgling construction industry with waste plastic.
Green baubles for the super-rich perhaps, but there is evidence that a real change of thinking is taking place. Schools, local authorities and mosques are now teaching about water and energy saving, and Gulf state governments are committing themselves to deeper cuts in emissions than the US or much of Europe.
Britain hopes to generate 20% of its electricity with renewables by 2030. But the Qataris will do that by 2020. Britain, with a population of more than 60 million, built about 100,000 new homes last year. Qatar, with 1.4 million people, will build a whole city to the highest green specifications for 200,000 people in not much more time.
And it’s not just Qatar. Other Gulf states are racing each other to rethink their development paths. The renewable energy world is moving to Abu Dhabi. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has invested billions of dollars in projects there, as well as in Europe and north Africa. Even Dubai, which has indulged in a 20-year construction frenzy, is aiming at 7% renewables in 12 years – similar to Belgium. Even more remarkably, Saudi Arabia, fearful of its own escalating domestic electricity needs, will meet one-third of its electricity demand from solar by 2032.
None of this would have been conceivable even a few years ago. So what has changed? One senior adviser to the Qatari government put it like this: “There is a new direction. The GCC countries all move together like a herd. A desperate search is going on to find new ways of doing things. They need to find the answer for when the oil and gas is not there. They have seen the future and now they have fire in their arse.
“But they also know that the Arab spring countries all neglected people during development. They are learning. Education, health and welfare were all neglected. Environment has risen up the agenda. In the past, it was of no interest. Now it is a global necessity. Money is not the problem.”
The thirst for what Qatar, Abu Dhabi and other oil-rich states call a new “knowledge economy” would partly explain why Qatar on Wednesday committed to set up a global climate change centre in Doha with the German Potsdam Institute. It will employ around 200 researchers and sit beside a dozen other prestigious US, British and other academic centres, including Imperial College, which is now at Doha.
The founder of the institute, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, spelled out what was at stake: “Qatar is the only true desert state in the world with no surface water and 500km of flat coastline, where temperatures are already 45C in summer. With sea level rise expected to be up to 90cm by 2100 in the Gulf region and temperatures expected to rise [by] 5-8C, this place will be unlivable [if climate change is not brought under control].”
The Gulf states’ change of direction, he suggested, is being undertaken not out of any desire to be green but sheer pragmatism. What happens here could shape all our futures, says the adviser. “The next stage of modern civilization can be blueprinted here. Qatar can be a role model for the region and the whole planet.”
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Last-minute scramble for climate deal at UN talks
Negotiations continued through the night Thursday at United Nations climate talks in Doha, Qatar, with envoys trying to mesh procedure with political will. A key proposal is the annual delivery of $100 billion in aid by 2020 to pay for projects to cope with the effects of global warming. The lead negotiator from the Philippines, Naderev Saño, broke down in tears in the hall, saying, “I appeal to the whole world, I appeal to leaders from all over the world, to open our eyes to the stark reality that we face. … It cannot be a way of life that we end up running always from storms.”
Above tells us that the location and hosts had no effect on the negotiators that still attempted a North-South wrangle. A waste of time so far as we are concerned.
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he faithful IISD Report titled -
Doha Climate Change Conference Adopts Doha Climate Gateway -
spills out for us to see the best diplomatic slippery beans:
8 December 2012: The UN Climate Change Conference in Doha, Qatar, took place from 26 November-8 December 2012, focused on ensuring the implementation of agreements reached at previous conferences. Following two weeks of negotiations, delegates adopted the package of “Doha Climate Gateway” decisions on the evening of Saturday, 8 December. The outcome includes amendments to the Kyoto Protocol to establish its second commitment period.The Doha Climate Change Conference included: the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 18) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); the eighth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 8); the 37th sessions of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA 37) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI 37); the second part of the 17th session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP 17); the second part of the 15th session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the UNFCCC (AWG-LCA 15); and the second part of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP 1).
The DOHA conference drew approximately 9,000 participants, including 4, 356 government officials, 3, 956 representatives of UN bodies and agencies, intergovernmental organizations and civil society organizations, and 683 members of the media. {much lower figures then the above upbeat report}
Having been launched at CMP 1, the AWG-KP terminated its work in Doha. The parties also agreed to terminate the AWG-LCA and negotiations under the Bali Action Plan. Key elements of the outcome also included agreement to consider loss and damage, “such as” an institutional mechanism to address loss and damage in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Other outcomes of the Conference include the adoption of: a decision on gender and climate change; and the Doha Work Programme on Convention Article 6 (education and awareness raising).
While developing countries and observers expressed disappointment with the lack of ambition in outcomes on Annex I countries’ mitigation and finance, most agreed that the conference had paved the way for a new phase, focusing on the implementation of the outcomes from negotiations under the AWG-KP and AWG-LCA, and advancing negotiations under the ADP.
[IISD RS Coverage of the Conference] [UN Press Release] [UN Secretary-General's Statement on COP 18] [UNFCCC Press Release]
For IISD FULL REPORT - please see - mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?shva=1…
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FOLLOWED BY THE UNUSUAL SHORT AND VERY MISLEADING UNSG BAN KI-MOON PRESS RELEASE THAT IN A FEW LINES DECLARES THE SECRETARIAT”S BANKRUPTCY IN ALL MATTERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
10 December 2012
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THE UNITED NATIONS
Secretary-GeneralSG/SM/14708
ENV/DEV/1333 |
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| Department of Public Information • News and Media Division • New York |
Secretary-General Welcomes Doha Climate Change Conference Outcome, But Stresses Need for Accelerated Action to Limit Rise in Global Temperature.
SO WE ASK – WHAT DID THE MEETING ACTUALLY ACHIEVE? DIPLOMACY ASIDE _ WHO PAID AND WHO GAINED FROM THIS MIGRATION OF CLOSE TO 10,000 PEOPLE TO THE ISLAND OF QATAR, IN A CORNER OF THE SAUDI PENINSULA OF THE GREAT ARAB DESERT?
The following statement was issued on 8 December by the Spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon:
The Secretary-General welcomes the outcome of the United Nations Climate Change Conference that concluded today in Doha, and he congratulates Qatar for a job well done in hosting the Conference.
Doha successfully concluded the previous round of climate negotiations, paving the way to a comprehensive, legally binding agreement by 2015.
The Secretary-General believes that far more needs to be done and he calls on Governments, along with businesses, civil society and citizens, to accelerate action on the ground so that the global temperature rise can be limited to 2° C.
He said he will increase his personal involvement in efforts to raise ambition, scale-up climate financing and engage world leaders as we now move towards the global agreement in 2015.
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Will the UN Secretary General show now rhe decency to cancel the 2013 – 2014 meetings and advise the Member States to act in quiet diplomacy in preparations for a 2015 outcome?
Meeting before 2015 like the Cancun, Durban and Doha meetings – the last three yearly meetings that came after the Copenhagen COP 15 of the UNFCCC of 2009 – were nothing more then large exercises in migration that enhanced income from tourism in the host countries. Our own website has stopped listing the meetings after the Copenhagen meeting and we preferred to call them Copenhagen +1, Copenhagen +2, And now for Doha we reserved Copenhagen +3. That was because the last real step in the UNFCCC evolution happened on the way to Copenhagen when President Obama went first to Beijing and managed for the first time to get China to declare that they are indeed part of these negotiations. China then brought in India, Brazil, South Africa as well.
We are afraid that if nothing is done before the 2013 Warsaw meeting that meeting will be a waste as well. What has to happen is that the Obama II Administration steps forward with direct proposals to the other major emitters – specifically – China, India and Brazil – with or without South Africa – and seals direct agreements with them that can then become the base for multilateral negotiations. Indeed, there is no reason why one must have all nations on board.
In the past it was mainly the oil States of the Middle East that were the hindrance to an agreement – this even before one could tackle the large emerging emitters and the United States. Perhaps the Doha meeting provided the needed Climate Change education to the oil States, and thus a strong decision of President Obama and rolling over the climate deniers of the Republican oil-Lobby, could return the issue to multilateral diplomacy.
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Kyoto Protocol extended in climate compromise.
Is the title of the UN Foundation’s UN WIRE of December 10, 2012.
Delegates at the United Nations climate talks that ended Saturday in Doha, Qatar, agreed to extend the Kyoto Protocol through 2020 and create a road map by 2015 to replace the pact. The world’s governments remained divided over who should pay the costs for helping the most vulnerable countries cope with the effects of climate change through 2020, when industrial nations are slated to contribute $100 billion annually from public and private sources. Reuters (12/9), The New York Times (12/8), IRINNews.org (12/9)
THE REUTERS REPORTS FROM DOHA ARE AS FOLLOWS:
Despair after climate conference, but UN still offers hope
Sunday, December 9, 2012 final report:
* U.N. process has to accelerate before 2015
* Many leave Doha conference in despair
By Barbara Lewis and Alister Doyle
DOHA, Dec 9 (Reuters) – At the end of another lavishly-funded U.N. conference that yielded no progress on curbing greenhouse emissions, many of those most concerned about climate change are close to despair.
As thousands of delegates checked out of their air-conditioned hotel rooms in Doha to board their jets for home, some asked whether the U.N. system even made matters worse by providing cover for leaders to take no meaningful action.
Supporters say the U.N. process is still the only framework for global action. The United Nations also plays an essential role as the “central bank” for carbon trading schemes, such as the one set up by the European Union.
But unless rich and poor countries can inject urgency into their negotiations, they are heading for a diplomatic fiasco in 2015 – their next deadline for a new global deal.
“Much much more is needed if we are to save this process from being simply a process for the sake of process, a process that simply provides for talk and no action, a process that locks in the death of our nations, our people, and our children,” said Kieren Keke, foreign minister of Nauru, who fears his Pacific island state could become uninhabitable.
The conference held in Qatar – the country that produces the largest per-capita volume of greenhouse gases in the world – agreed to extend the emissions-limiting Kyoto Protocol, which would have run out within weeks.
But Canada, Russia and Japan – where the protocol was signed 15 years ago – all abandoned the agreement. The United States never ratified it in the first place, and it excludes developing countries where emissions are growing most quickly.
Delegates flew home from Doha without securing a single new pledge to cut pollution from a major emitter.
So far, U.N. climate talks have missed just about every deadline. The rich nations of the world promised two decades ago to halt their rise in greenhouse gases. They failed. Next, they promised a sequel to Kyoto by 2009. They failed again.
Now they have a 2015 deadline to get a new global, binding deal in place, to enter into force after the extension of Kyoto expires in 2020. For the first time, it would apply to rich and poor countries alike. But with the world’s nations divided over who must pay the cost, the task of reaching accord seems beyond the capabilities of the vast corps of international delegates.
Meanwhile, the world’s weather is only getting more unstable. As the Doha talks dragged on, Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines left nearly 1,000 people dead or missing.
Hurricane Sandy last month was a reminder that even rich countries are not safe from extreme weather, which scientists say will become ever more common as the world heats up.
PROGRESS AT GROUND LEVEL
A series of reports released during the Doha talks said the world faced the prospect of 4 degrees Celsius (7.2F) of warming, rather than the 2 degree (3.6F) limit that nations adopted in 2010 as a maximum to avoid dangerous changes.
// BUT UN SERETARY GENERAL BAN KI_MOON STILL DREAMS AT A 2degrees LIMIT?!//
According to the World Bank, that would mean food and water shortages, habitats wiped out, coastal communities wrecked by rising seas, deserts spreading, and droughts both more frequent and severe. Most impact would be borne by the world’s poorest.
“The alarm bells are going off all over the place,” Alden Meyer, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, said. “We are in a crisis and treating it like a process where we can dither away for ever.”
Action at ground level has had a positive impact, even as the U.N. dithers. Investment in carbon-free renewable energy hit a record $260 billion in 2011.
In the United States, the discovery of techniques to produce natural gas from shale has cut the cost of gas, which has reduced emissions from the world’s biggest polluter by replacing coal, a bigger carbon emitter, for power generation.
But although U.S. emissions – nearly a quarter of the world’s total – have fallen, for the world as a whole this year they are expected to rise by 2.6 percent, up by 58 percent since 1990. Emerging economies led by China and India account for most of the growth.
Although frustrated by days and nights of haggling, ministers still back the United Nations as part of the solution.
“It’s clear to me that this process is the only global framework we have and since this is a global problem, it has to be addressed globally,” Denmark’s Energy Minister Martin Lidegaard told Reuters.
“But obviously, this can’t stand alone. Nations can’t continue to hide behind the process. There’s a direct link between what we deliver at home and here. We desperately need to combine action by regions, municipalities, citizens with this global approach. That is becoming more and more evident.”
Negotiators say ultimately politicians – distracted by other events – need to become engaged.
“It (the environment) is no longer on the front page with the political and financial crisis. That is the reason why heads of state have to turn to this,” the European Union’s chief negotiator Artur Runge-Metzger said.
CONVERTS
The conference is an easy target for cynics – not least because it was held in Qatar, a desert kingdom that exports carbon-producing fossil fuel and uses the proceeds to fund a lavish lifestyle for many of its 2.5 million people.
A country that burns fuel to desalinate water and build golf courses in the desert seems like an odd place to talk about curtailing consumption. But supporters say bringing producers like Qatar into the consensus for change is a step forward.
Business leaders are also getting involved.
“A lot of CEOs from the region have turned up. A lot of them are talking about sustainability and resource efficiency. That’s no longer a dirty word,” said Russel Mills, global director for energy and climate policy at Dow Chemical Co.
Dow, like many other big industrial firms, keeps a close eye on U.N. carbon policy because of the United Nations’ role as “a kind of central bank” for pollution allowances.
The most developed carbon trading scheme is the European Union’s, which has lurched from crisis to crisis. The value of EU Emissions Trading Scheme permits sank to a record low this month under the burden of surplus allowances during a recession.
But other jurisdictions such as Australia, California, South Korea and even China believe they can learn from Europe’s mistakes and are developing their own emissions trading. Such schemes could be the planet’s best hope of survival, and the United Nations is likely to play a role.
“Economy-wide carbon pricing, whether carbon taxes or cap and trade, is the only approach that can conceivably achieve the targets scientists advocate,” Robert Stavins, a professor of business and government at Harvard in the United States, said.
“Also, it will be most the cost-effective and therefore in the long run the most politically-viable approach.”
Still, even with the best of intentions, U.N. diplomats are unlikely ever to deliver change at the pace scientists seek.
“Science is demanding immediate and drastic action,” Christiana Figueres, head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, told Reuters. “Policy, economics and financing cannot move in drastic fashion.”
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and the IRIN NEWS Report:
IRIN – standing for Integrated Regional Information Networks – has its head office in Nairobi, Kenya, with regional desks in Nairobi, Johannesburg, Dakar, Dubai and Bangkok, covering some 70 countries. The bureaus are supported by a network of local correspondents, an increasing rarity in mainstream newsgathering today.
CLIMATE CHANGE: Snapshot of wins and losses at the Doha talks.
Talks in Doha at the futuristic Qatar National Convention Centre dragged on overtime
JOHANNESBURG, 9 December 2012 (IRIN) – Like last year’s UN climate change talks, this year’s conference in Doha culminated in an all-night session to hammer out a deal on preventing further global warming and protecting people from the effects of climate change. While some promising compromises were made, the absence of a strong commitment to slash greenhouse gas emissions and help vulnerable populations adapt to climate change was evident in the conference’s 39 decisions.
IRIN provides a snapshot of the three overarching themes of the decisions that came out of the 18th session of the Conference of Parties (COP18) to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and what these decisions mean for humanitarian actors.
Loss and damage
Tweeting out of the conference, one of Argentina’s negotiators said the decisions don’t feel “ground-breaking” but are “more likely saving face”. “What we got for it, only loss and damage and nothing else”, he said.
[The] decisions don’t feel ground-breaking but are more likely saving face. What we got for it, only loss and damage and nothing else |
Poor countries, including small island states and the least developed countries, were looking for a decision to create an international mechanism to address losses and damages caused by climate change. The mechanism would open the door to possible compensation from affluent countries for poor countries facing the mounting costs of extreme climate events. It would consider both their economic and non-economic losses, and possibly explore technological interventions.
In the end, they had to settle for the possibility of this happening in the COP19 talks taking place in Poland next year. Still, the fact that the possibility of such a mechanism was mentioned in the decision at all was considered a breakthrough.
Additionally, a work programme collecting data on loss and damage caused by slow-onset disasters – such as droughts – received an extension. The programme will also consider climate change’s impact on migration patterns and displacement, as well as efforts to reduce risk.
The decisions on loss and damage echoes much of a framework proposed by a group of NGOs earlier in the conference, which had recommended focusing on the international mechanism, the work programme, and consideration of non-economic losses. But ultimately, the decisions are subject to money being made available for development of the work programme.
What it means: With the extension of the work programme, more information on possible policy approaches will be forthcoming. This will help humanitarian organizations better scale-up responses to extreme climate events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity.
But NGOs and the civil society will likely have to wait a long time for affluent countries to make firm commitments on funding, risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance, and technology to help poor countries improve their resilience to climate change. Given that money to help vulnerable populations adapt has been ad hoc and insufficient, there is little optimism for funds being made available for compensation.
Adaptation finance
In 2009, developed countries promised to provide US$30 billion by 2012 to help poor countries adapt to climate change. They also promised to provide $100 billion a year from 2020 onwards.
Developed countries reported in Doha that they had reached the $30 billion target, but this was disputed by academics and civil society.
“It is very difficult to know where that finance went and how,” said scientist Saleemul Huq of the International Institute for Environment and Development. “We need to come up with procedures for monitoring, reporting and verification of these finance figures. We need to agree on some format so that money can be tracked effectively. It hasn’t been tracked previously.”
The developed countries further indicated that, with the global recession, they are unable to make firm commitments to finance poor nations’ efforts to adapt. Instead, a decision was made to set up a work programme in 2013 to help developed countries identify ways to raise this money.
What it means: No global funding pledge has been for the interim period between 2013 and 2020. Individual pledges by five European countries – including the UK, France and Germany – have been made, but cumulatively, these fall far short of the $60 billion that developing countries had requested for the interim.
It is also not clear if the five pledges are specifically for climate change adaptation or if they are part of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) that developed countries provide to the developing world. The UNFCC requires that developed countries provide money for climate change adaptation that is additional to their ODA.
Emission cuts
The good news to emerge from the talks is that the Kyoto Protocol – a global agreement to cut emissions that was set to expire in 2012 – has been extended to 2020.
They also agreed that a roadmap to create a deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol should be ready in 2015.
But meanwhile, there are no firm commitments to take on deeper emissions cuts. And with Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Russia and the US opting out of the Kyoto Protocol, the protocol applies to only 15 percent of current global greenhouse gas emissions.
What it means: Scientific organization, including the UN Environment Programme have warned that failing to further cut emissions could increase global temperatures by over four degrees Celius by the turn of the century. The internationally embraced goal is to limit this warming to two degrees Celsius, but the International Energy Agency has shown that achieving this goal grows more difficult and expensive with every passing year. This means poor countries and aid agencies will have to contend with the possibility of more frequent and intense climatic events and the mounting costs associated with prevention, relief and recovery.
jk/rz
see also -
[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]
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A ‘low ambition’ outcome at Doha climate change conference
By Martin Khor, Executive Director of the South Centre, Doha, 9 December 2012
The annual UN climate conference concluded in Doha last Saturday (8 December) with “low ambition” both in emission cuts by developed countries and funding for developing countries.
Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted many decisions, including on the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period in which developed countries committed to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases.
Many delegates left the conference quite relieved that they had reached agreement after days of wrangling over many issues and an anxious last 24 hours that were so contentious that most people felt a collapse was imminent.
The relief was that the multilateral climate change regime has survived yet again, although there are such deep differences and distrust among developed and developing countries.
The conflict in paradigms between these two groups of countries was very evident throughout the two weeks of the Doha negotiations, and it was only papered over superficially in the final hours to avoid an open failure. But the differences will surface again when negotiations resume next year.
Avoidance of collapse was a poor measure of success. In terms of progress towards real actions to tackle the climate change crisis, the Doha conference was another lost opportunity and grossly inadequate.
The conference was held at the end of a year of record extreme events. News of typhoon in the Philippines which killed 500 and made 300,000 homeless reminded the conference participants of the reality of the climate crisis.
However, the dictates of economic competition and commercial interests unfortunately were of higher priority, especially among developed countries, which explains their low ambition in emission reduction. They also broke their promises in the legally binding UNFCCC to provide funds and transfer technology to developing countries.
The most important result in Doha was the formal adoption of the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period (2013 to 2020) to follow immediately after the first period expires on 31 December 2012.
However, the elements are weak. With original Kyoto Protocol Parties Russia, Japan and New Zealand having decided not to join in a second commitment period, and and Canada have left the Protocol altogether, only Europe, Norway, Switzerland, Australia, and a few others (totalling 35 developed countries and countries with economies in transition) are left to make legally binding commitments in the second period.
Also, the emission cuts these countries agreed to commit to are in aggregate only 18% by 2020 below the 1990 level, compared to the 25-40% required to restrict global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius.
A saving factor in the Kyoto Protocol decision is the “ambition mechanism” put in by developing countries, that the countries will “revisit” their original target and increase their commitments by 2014, in line with the aggregate 25-40% reduction goal.
Also, the decision severely limited the amount of credits or surplus allowances that can be used during the second period. These credits were accumulated in the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period by countries that cut their emissions more than the targeted level.
According to the decision, these countries cannot use or trade most of the surplus allowances as a means to avoid current emission cuts.
The most important country affected is Russia, and on Saturday it strongly objected to the way the President of the Conference, Abdullah Hamad al-Attiyah of Qatar, bulldozed through the Kyoto Protocol decision even though it and two other countries tried to object.
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// DO YOU REMEMBER THOSE KYOTO HOT AIR CLOUDS RELEASED BY THE COLLAPSE OF THE ANTIQUATED SOVIET BLOC INDUSTRY?//
Just look at what happened at Doha – here something we heartily applaud:
The final “wrangling” took place in the closing plenary on Saturday afternoon between those wanting to limit the use of excess AAUs to ensure the “environmental integrity” of the emission reduction commitments put forward and those arguing that “overachievement” of commitments should not be punished by a limitation in the use of AAUs. Russia, Ukraine and Belarus attempted to block the adoption of the AWG-KP outcome during the CMP closing plenary, but the nimble COP President gaveled its adoption before appearing to notice Russia’s raised flag. A round of applause welcomed the adoption of the decision, which limits the amount of surplus AAUs that can be used and provides that only parties taking on second commitment period QELRCs can use them. Russia objected to what he said was a breach of procedure by the President, while the COP President responded he would do no more than reflect his view in the final report. This action on the part of the COP President brought back echoes of the events of Cancun when Bolivia’s objections to the adoption of the Cancun Agreement were overruled/ignored in much the same way. It also made many wonder whether this was becoming a trend in the climate negotiations; as many have repeated, consensus does not mean the right of one party to block progress.
The information comes from the IISD final analysis – www.iisd.ca/climate/cop18/enb/
NOW – IF THIS KILLED SOME HOT-AIR BALLOONS – POWER TO QATAR – WE LOVE THEM.
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A second major criticism of the Doha decisions is the lack of funds to be provided to developing countries to take climate actions.
In 2010, the Conference of Parties in Cancun decided that developed countries would mobilize climate finance of US$100 billion a year starting in 2020; and that US$30 billion of fast track finance would be given in 2010-2012.
But there is a gap between 2013 and 2020. Despite the demand by developing countries that there be US$60 billion by 2015, the decision adopted on Saturday does not specify any number as a commitment. It only “encourages” countries to provide at least as much as they had in the 2010-2012 period.
The lack of a credible finance commitment led to an outcry by developing countries on the plenary floor. This lack of funds curtails their ability to undertake actions to combat climate change, especially since they have agreed in the 2010 Cancun and 2011 Durban Conferences to take on more mitigation efforts.
The Doha conference also adopted a set of decisions under its working group on long-term cooperative action under the UNFCCC. The developing countries were pleased with paragraphs on equity, unilateral trade measures, technology assessment and a vague reference to the effects of intellectual property.
However these decisions were very weak. Even then the United States registered its disagreement or reservations to these decisions, after the adoption of the text, giving a foretaste of how they will continue to object to future discussions on these issues.
A positive decision made in Doha was to prepare for the setting up by next year’s Conference of an “international mechanism” to help developing countries deal with loss and damage caused by climate change. This also resulted from intense negotiations.
Activities meanwhile will include an expert meeting and preparing technical papers on this issue. Developing countries hope that this programme will lead to new funds being channelled to those countries suffering from flooding, drought, sea level rise and other forms of damage linked to climate change.
The Doha conference also adopted a work plan for the new working group on the Durban Platform that was set up in December 2011. There were major fights in Doha over this, with many developing countries insisting that mention be made that the Durban Platform will operate on the basis of equity and common and differentiated responsibilities (CBDR), the operating principle of the UNFCCC.
The final text did not mention this principle, and even the reference to the June 2012 Rio Plus 20 Summit which endorsed the equity and CBDR principle was removed at the insistence of the United States.
What remained in the text was a reference that the Durban Platform’s work will be guided by the principles of the Convention. Even then, the United States in the final plenary placed a reservation that they reject the use of this phrase in the negotiations in the Durban Platform group. (The phrase is in the 2011 decision that established the working group – after the United States rejected any reference to explicit inclusion of “equity” or “CBDR” the final compromise was “under the Convention”.)
This reveals how much lacking in the spirit of international cooperation that the United States and some other developed countries have become.
They are no longer willing to assist the developing countries, and incredibly are even objecting to the principles of the Convention being applied to negotiations to set up a new agreement that will be under the Convention.
More than anything else, this shows the tragic paradox of the Doha conference. It succeeded in adopting many decisions and kept the functioning of the multilateral climate regime alive, but the actual substance of actions to save the planet from climate change was absent, as was a genuine commitment to support the developing countries.
Author: Marin Khor is Executive Director of the South Centre. Contact: director@southcentre.org.
An earlier version of this article was published in The Star of 10 December 2012.
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The list of the Climate Change Convention Conferences of the Parties held todate:
- 3 Conferences of the Parties to the convention and since 2005 the parallel meetings of the Members to the Kyoto Protocol to the Convention:
- 3.1 1995: COP 1, The Berlin Mandate
- 3.2 1996: COP 2, Geneva, Switzerland
- 3.3 1997: COP 3, The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change
- 3.4 1998: COP 4, Buenos Aires, Argentina
- 3.5 1999: COP 5, Bonn, Germany
- 3.6 2000: COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands
- 3.7 2001: COP 6, Bonn, Germany
- 3.8 2001: COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco
- 3.9 2002: COP 8, New Delhi, India
- 3.10 2003: COP 9, Milan, Italy
- 3.11 2004: COP 10, Buenos Aires, Argentina
- 3.12 2005: COP 11/MOP 1, Montreal, Canada
- 3.13 2006: COP 12/MOP 2, Nairobi, Kenya
- 3.14 2007: COP 13/MOP 3, Bali, Indonesia
- 3.15 2008: COP 14/MOP 4, Poznan, Poland
- 3.16 2009: COP 15/MOP 5, Copenhagen, Denmark
- 3.17 2010: COP 16/MOP 6, Cancún, Mexico
- 3.18 2011: COP 17/MOP 7, Durban, South Africa
- 3.19 2012: COP 18/MOP 8, Doha, Qatar
- COP 19/MOP 9, were approved for Warsaw, Poland, even that they hosted quite recently the 2008 meeting.
The meeting at Doha Decided to accept with appreciation the offer by the Government of Poland to host the nineteenth session of the Conference of the Parties and the ninth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in Warsaw, Poland, from Monday, 11 November to Friday, 22 November 2013, subject to confirmation by the Bureau of the Conference of the Parties and the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol that all logistical, technical and financial elements for hosting the sessions are available, in conformity with United Nations General Assembly resolution 40/243, and subject to the successful conclusion of a Host Country Agreement;
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Posted in Abu Dhabi, Arab Asia, Archives, Brazil, China, Copenhagen COP15, Droughts, European Union, Futurism, Germany, Global Warming issues, India, Mexico, Nairobi, New York, Poland, Qatar, Real World's News, Reporting From the UN Headquarters in New York, Reporting from UNFCCC Meetings, Storms, The New Climate, Three Poles Melting
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on October 2nd, 2012
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)
From Pearls to Oil
Sunday, October 14
6:30 PM – 8:30 PM
Intercontinental Hotel Auditorium, Abu Dhabi
David Heard, Author, From Pearls to Oil
In conversation with Mark Beech, Cultural Landscape Manager, Abu Dhabi Tourism and Culture Authority; Philip Kennedy, Associate Professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, NYUAD; Nick Cochrane-Dyet, Special Advisor, BP Abu Dhabi
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UAE’s higher education : Will demand meet supply?
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Khaleej Times – 02/10/2012
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Khaleej Times) The demand for higher education in Dubai could be on the rise, but the number of foreign universities opening up in Dubai’s education freezones has slowed down.
No new universities have opened up in Dubai International Academic City (DIAC) this year, as existing universities are looking at new ways to improve student numbers.
“Even today there is a huge demand for higher education courses,” says Dr Ayoub Kazim, Managing Director of TECOM Investments’ Education Cluster.
With 48 private schools in Dubai offering programmes to more than 207,500 students, the potential for higher education continues to lure investors. At last count, more than 20,000 students had opted for higher education in universities based in DIAC. This figure is expected to rise in the coming years, as more students from the Middle East region will look to Dubai as an education destination.
While the demand looks set, not all new universities applying for a license to operate in Dubai are given a nod. The selection criterion is tough, as universities need to meet quality guidelines.
Dr Kazim says, “In addition to a strict application criteria, there exists a long gestation period from the time of application to the physical establishment of an institution. We follow a meticulous selection process while reviewing applications and ensure education standards of branches at DIAC match those of the parent university.”
Since 2006, only 17 new universities have been accepted into DIAC from more than 178 applications.
“The Education Cluster consistently endeavours to attract universities that offer programmes which meet the diverse needs of the market and build a skilled and sustainable workforce that contributes to the growth of various sectors of the economy. In addition, we seek to attract institutions which deliver programmes that are not already offered here,” explains Dr Ayoub.
The emphasis clearly lies on giving students the choice which did not exist until a decade ago. New courses are announced regularly as more than 400 programmes are already on offer.
“Not only does this provide them the opportunity to opt for a path that best suits their career aspirations but also significantly contributes to developing talent in sectors that play a pivotal role in the economy,” adds Dr Kazim.
Programmes in nano-technology, water engineering, aerospace, nuclear science and psychology have been developed as part of this purpose. The big challenge however remains in finding students for niche courses.
Enrolments have been on the rise this year as universities reported an increase in student intake. BITS Pilani Dubai Campus recorded an all-time high with double the number of applications received for its engineering programmes.
“The number of applications increased by as much as 100 per cent compared to last year. The total applications received online this year were 1,645 as compared to 817 last year,” said Prof Dr RK Mittal, Director, BITS Pilani, Dubai Campus.
Private universities in Dubai will no doubt continue to benefit from the growing need for higher education, as more students will choose to stay back after school. The question remains whether more universities will be allowed to open-up in Dubai.
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Posted in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Future Events, UAE
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on July 13th, 2012
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)
Under the Patronage of H.H. General Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces
World Future Energy Summit | Abu Dhabi, 15-17 January 2013 … the state of the art, develop new ways of thinking and shape the future of renewable energy.
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TUESDAY JULY 10, 2012
The Middle East energy sector is witnessing a surge of fresh investment in 2012…read more…
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TUESDAY JULY 10, 2012
An eco-friendly mosque which is expected to reduce energy and water consumption…read more…
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SUNDAY JULY 08, 2012
The Global Renewable Energy Atlas is described as a groundbreaking initiative…read more…
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TUESDAY JULY 03, 2012
UAE invests US$1.5 billion into ten new projects as Power + Water Middle East…read more…
TESTIMONIALS
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“Abu Dhabi is becoming justifiably renowned as a hub for progress… we are on the brink of an exciting sustainable future – clean energy for all”
HE Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary General, United Nations
Masdar
Established in 2006, Masdar is a commercially driven enterprise that operates to reach the broad boundaries of the renewable energy and sustainable technologies industry there by
Zayed Future Energy Prize
The Zayed Future Energy Prize represents the vision of the Late Founding Father and President of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al Nahyan, who championed environmental stewardship. read more…
this follows the 2012 Conference as exemplified by:
2 Jan 2012 – World Future Energy Summit 2012, 16-19 January in Abu Dhabi …annual meeting committed to promoting advancement of renewable energy, …
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Posted in Abu Dhabi, Future Events
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on July 5th, 2012
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)
| This summer the NYUAD Institute and the Abu Dhabi Film Festival highlight films from ADFF 2011 in the second annual Summer Screenings film series. In keeping with the program’s regional focus, each evening includes a short and feature-length film from Morocco, India, or Iran. Each Film will be preceded by an introduction given by a member the NYUAD Film Faculty or an ADFF Programmer. |
Farewell Exile andFree Men
Wednesday, July 11
7:00 PM – 9:00 PM
NYUAD Downtown Campus
Tehran in Action andChicken with Plums
Wednesday, August 22
7:00 PM – 9:00 PM
NYUAD Downtown Campus![  RSVP]() |
Noise and Alms for a Blind Horse
Wednesday, August 1
7:30 PM – 9:30 PM
NYUAD Downtown Campus
A light Iftar will be served at 7:10PM, with the films to follow. |
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Posted in Abu Dhabi, New York, Reporting From the UN Headquarters in New York, UAE
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on May 28th, 2012
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

UAE eyes June opening for pipeline bypassing Hormuz.
By Acil Tabbara (AFP) – May 27, 2012
FUJAIRAH, United Arab Emirates — A pipeline being built by the United Arab Emirates to pump most of its oil exports from east coast terminals bypassing the Iran-threatened Strait of Hormuz, will be operational in June, the ruler of Fujairah told AFP in an interview.
“The pipeline will be operational in June,” said Sheikh Hamad bin Mohammed Al-Sharqi, whose east-coast emirate is one of seven that make up the UAE.
Construction of the 360-kilometre (225 miles) pipeline began in 2008.
The pipeline will have an initial capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day rising to 1.8 million bpd, which represents the bulk of the UAE’s current production of around 2.5 million bpd, Sheikh Hamad said.
The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline will carry oil from fields in Abu Dhabi on the Gulf to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
Fears of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz intensified in recent months after Iran threatened to close the strategic outlet to the Gulf if Western governments kept up their efforts to choke off its oil exports in a bid to rein in its controversial nuclear programme.
In addition to the exports of the UAE and Iran itself, all the oil exports of Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are shipped through the waterway. Iraq also pumps the bulk of its exports through ports on the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, pumps most of its crude from its terminals on the Gulf but it can divert large supplies to terminals on the Red Sea.
Sheikh Hamad, however, played down the possibility of a closure of Hormuz.
“I do not believe there will be a war,” he said, arguing that the tension with neighbouring Iran is just a “summer cloud that will clear.”
Iran held talks on Wednesday and Thursday in Baghdad with six world powers that nearly collapsed when they demanded Tehran give up enriching uranium to the 20 percent level seen as a key step towards weapons-grade.
In exchange, Iran would get some inducements such as aircraft parts for its dilapidated commercial fleet and technical assistance in nuclear energy.
Iran, which is suffering under Western sanctions, said the inducements were far too little and countered with a demand that the P5+1 declare that it has a right to enrich uranium.
The two sides agreed to meet again in Moscow on June 18-19.
Sheikh Hamad is hopeful that the new pipeline will “increase the geopolitical importance of Fujairah,” which “lies on a meeting point of east and west maritime routes.”
His small emirate, which has a population of just 170,000 people, wants to take advantage of its location to become an export hub for oil and gas.
Fujairah is already the world’s third largest centre for ship bunkering after Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, and Singapore, and wants to rise up on the list.
At the port that was opened in 1982, expansion work is in full swing, including the construction of two new platforms to receive large tankers, as well as large reservoirs, bringing the storage capacity to around 11 million cubic metres.
The ruler is expecting more investments in the petroleum sector after the emirate established last year a zone for oil industries.
Last year also, Fujairah opened a new power plant fed by a pipeline carrying gas from Qatar through Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
A terminal to export liquefied natural gas is planned in Fujairah by the Abu Dhabi investment arm, Mubadala, and International Petroleum Investment Co (IPIC), which also belongs to Abu Dhabi, the richest emirate of the UAE.
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Posted in Abu Dhabi, Arab Asia, Dubai, India, Iran, Oman, Real World's News, UAE
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on May 24th, 2012
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)
The top 10 icons of Israeli high-tech.
Long before Israel was known as the startup nation, skilled and visionary men were already putting it on course as the next Silicon Valley.
ISRAEL21 Century takes a look at Israel’s initial top 10 high-tech pioneers and we like Israel to remember also that Israel Parliament (the Knesset) had the first Commissioner for Future Generations. Having understood that so early in the SUSTAINABILITY games, we wonder why the present Israeli government is not more active at the UN games that will have their finals at Rio de Janeiro this June?
Israeli entrepreneurs were on the front line when it came to spread use of water technologies, solar power, geothermal, biofuels, energy saving, decreased dependence on oil, but now their representatives at the UN text-writing exercises for Rio just sat quietly on their hands. What a shame!
Israel’s enterprising engineers and entrepreneurs have defined an industry for the world, from computer storage technologies and chip manufacturing to instant messaging and modern firewalls. They’re transforming communications, entertainment and mobility, rivaling Silicon Valley in California.
This high-tech legacy was actually begun decades ago by an iconic crew of Israeli men. Before the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, Israel was already a startup nation of highly educated engineers who were emerging from the army with a drive to build their country through industry.
In a two-part series, ISRAEL21c pays tribute to the icons of the country’s high-tech industry. We start here with a top 10 list of pioneers and catalysts of Israel’s high-tech industry.
The Israeli high tech “gene,” we note, also seems to be associated with the longevity gene. The founding fathers, now in their 70s, 80s and 90s, remain productive to this day.
1. Dan Tolkowsky
Born: 1921
Claim to fame: Founded the first venture fund to invest in Israeli high-tech and startups.
Tolkowsky, one of the grandfathers of the Israeli high-tech industry, co-founded the Athena Fund, which sired the companies that innovator Uzia Galil (see below) envisioned. Through Discount Investments, Tolkowsky helped provide the finance and commercial capabilities to the Israeli high-tech greats Elron, Elbit, Elscint, Daisy, Fibronics, Optrotek and Scitex. He continues to work in biotechnology and high-tech and gives strategic advice to Israeli high-tech companies traded publicly in Israel and abroad.
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2. Uzia Galil
Born: 1925
Claim to fame: At Motorola, he helped develop the world’s first color television. Started the first successful non-military high-tech company in Israel.
Galil, an electrical engineer, is known for founding Elron Electronic Industries, the first high-tech multinational holding company based in Israel. With a net worth of about $5 billion, it has grown to include some 30 companies that have invented items from medical devices to military technologies. Some of the more notable companies that have been steered, founded or led by Galil include Netmanage, Zoran, Elbit, Elscint, Chipx, Orbotech, Partner Communications, and Silicom Ventures.
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3. Ed Mlavsky
Born: 1929
Claim to fame: Founder of Israel’s first VC, the Gemini Israel Fund, linking Israeli brains to capital markets overseas.
A technologist in his own right, Ed Mlavsky has lent muscle to Israeli high-tech through networking and financing platforms he established, setting the stage for Israeli tech exports. Before there was Google, he was making lists of tech products and pitching them to firms abroad. He eventually went on to lead and shape the US-Israel Binational Research and Development (BIRD) Foundationfrom 1979 through 1992. He then founded Gemini, a fund that oversees dozens of startups specializing in a span of Israeli tech from Internet technologies to “green” IT. Mlavsky made significant contributions to the world solar industry as a founder of Tyco, now a New York Stock Exchange-traded solar energy company. He coined the term “edge-defined film-fed growth” (EFG), a method for making sheets of polycrystalline silicon for photovoltaic devices.
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4. Jacob Ziv
Born: 1931
Claim to fame: Developed data-compression technologies used in all personal computers.
The groundbreaking work of Jacob Ziv enabled digital communication to be fast and rapid. With Abraham Lempel, he co-founded the LZ family of lossless data compression algorithms to make digital data occupy less space so it can be transmitted faster. Their principle has led to modern data-compression standards such as MP3 for audio, GIF or PNG for imaging and PDF for text. Ziv’s work has also improved the storage capacity of hard drives and the performance of modems, and optimized fax technologies. Seminal in scope, his contributions to computer science have inspired a new generation of researchers.
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5. Efraim (Efi) Arazi
Born: 1937
Claim to fame: Created Scitex, often referred to as the flagship of the Israeli high-tech industry.
Effi Arazi founded and led Scitex Corporation (now renamed Scailex Corporation) in 1968. The company, later sold to Hewlett Packard, develops and manufactures hardware and software technologies, and equipment for the printing and publishing industries. This was Israel’s first high-tech firm and at its peak employed 4,000 people. Since then, Arazi has gone on to found additional graphics and printing companies.
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6. Dov Frohman
Born: 1939
Claim to fame: Invented a new memory chip for the personal computer industry, leading to the ubiquitous flash memory technology used today.
The electrical engineer got his start at Fairchild Semiconductor, the catalyst for many Silicon Valley companies. He followed many of his colleagues from there to Intel. A former VP at Intel, Frohman invented the erasable and programmable read-only memory called EPROM while troubleshooting an Intel product in the 1970s. At the time there were only RAM and ROM chips, both severely limited. Frohman’s invention was a paradigm shift for the personal computing industry. His new chip could be easily programmed and retain a long charge. EPROM is as important as the microprocessor itself, Intel founder Gordon Moore has said. Now retired, Frohman founded Intel-Israel and was its first general manager.
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7. Dan Maydan
Born: Circa 1939
Claim to fame: Made significant advances in semiconductor manufacturing.
Dan Maydan is an electrical engineer whose engineering breakthroughs in semi-conductor manufacturing are lauded by the Smithsonian Institution as having shaped modern society. For a number of years Maydan headed Applied Materials, which manufacturers semiconductors for the computing, LCD, glass and solar industries. In his early career at Bell Laboratories, he pioneered laser recording of data onto thin film, and made significant advances in other aspects in semiconductor manufacturing.
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8. Joseph “Yossi” Vardi
Born: 1942
Claim to fame: “The Mirabilis Effect.” Often cited as a godfather of the Israeli high-tech industry and angel investor to dozens of start-ups.
Yossi Vardi is one of Israel’s first high-tech entrepreneurs and unofficial ambassador of the Israeli high-tech scene. You will find him at conferences around the world and at local events and luncheons championing the Israeli startup nation. Vardi has worn an impressive number of hats over the years, including high-ranking positions in the Israeli government in varying capacities, including peace negotiations. He founded or helped build more than 60 high-tech companies in Israel, including Mirabilis, creator of ICQ. This company was sold to AOL for $400 million, showing other young Israelis that huge fortunes could be made in high-tech innovation. Vardi began his career at age 26 by co-founding TEKEM, one of the first software houses in Israel. It was later sold to Tadiran.
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9. Yehuda Zisapel
Born: 1942
Claim to fame: The “Bill Gates of Israel” behind the world’s most successful incubator of telecom-related startups.
Yehuda Zisapel is the co-founder of RAD Group, a conglomerate of voice and date communications companies that collectively employs about 3,500 people. Business 2.0 magazine calls him the world’s most successful incubator of telecom-related startups, given that five of the companies he co-founded with his younger brother Zohar are traded on the NASDAQ. RAD’s first commercial success was a miniature modem. The company also founded and backed dozens of spinoffs, the first of which was Lannet Data Communications. This company developed the first Ethernet switch for data communications, eliminating the need for expensive coaxial cables.
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10. Kobi Richter
Born: 1945
Claim to fame: Co-founder and head of Orbotech.
Widely recognized for his work in cardiovascular stent technology with Medinol, Kobi Richter is considered one of Israel’s top entrepreneurs for co-founding and managing Orbotech (El-Op). The company develops advanced high-tech tools for inspecting and imaging circuit boards and display panels (LCD). Today these optical tools are used to automate inspection for quality control in high-tech hardware manufacturing for faster production with lower cost and less waste. One of the company’s many solutions is automated check processing for financial institutions.
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Posted in Abu Dhabi, Archives, Brazil, Israel, Qatar, Reporting From the UN Headquarters in New York, Reporting from UNFCCC Meetings, UN Commission on Sustainable Development
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 26th, 2012
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

New York Times Op-Ed Columnist Thomas Friedman.
In print – Sunday, February 26, 2012 – based on a communication from oil advocate consultant to Saudi Arabia Phil K. Verleger.
During his long and distinguished career, Dr. Verleger has correctly anticipated most of the major structural changes occurring in the oil industry over the last 25 years. For example, in 1986 he became the first economist to fully comprehend and explain the appearance and development of energy commodity markets. Since then, Dr. Verleger has chronicled the evolution of these markets in The Petroleum Economics Monthly. Over a quarter century, he has examined many developments and anticipated the outcomes of a number of market manipulation strategies, including Metalgesellschaft’s disastrous trading program in 1992. More recently, Dr. Verleger was one of the first to examine and again correctly predict the impact of outside investment in commodities.
Dr. Verleger’s investigations have influenced developments in oil markets. His work includes two important academic studies on petroleum markets: Adjusting to Volatile Oil Prices (1994) and Oil Markets in Turmoil (1982). His research in 1998 contributed to Saudi Arabia’s adoption of a new market strategy in March 1999. In April 1999, Dr. Verleger correctly predicted that the Saudi strategy would take crude oil prices to the mid to high 20s.
In August 2004, Dr. Verleger warned that U.S. environmental regulations would cause crude oil prices to rise to $60 per barrel by limiting the availability of key petroleum products. He later wrote that the squeeze on product supply, combined with the absence of central bank concern, could take crude prices to $100. Both events came to pass.
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A Good Question.
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
An e-mail came in the other day with a subject line that I couldn’t ignore. It was from the oil economist Phil Verleger, and it read: “Should the United States join OPEC?” That I had to open.
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Josh Haner/The New York Times - Thomas L. Friedman
Verleger’s basic message was that the knee-jerk debate we’re again having over who is responsible for higher oil prices fundamentally misses huge changes that have taken place in America’s energy output, making us again a major oil and gas producer — and potential exporter — with an interest in reasonably high but stable oil prices.
From one direction, he says, we’re seeing the impact of the ethanol mandate put in place by President George W. Bush, which established fixed quantities of biofuels to be used in gasoline. When this is combined with improved vehicle fuel economy — in July, the auto industry agreed to achieve fleet averages of more than 50 miles per gallon by 2025 — it will inevitably drive down demand for gasoline and create more surplus crude to export. Add to that, says Verleger, “the increase in oil production from offshore fields and unconventional sources in America,” and that exportable U.S. surplus could grow even bigger.
Then, add the recent discoveries of natural gas deposits all over America, which will allow us to substitute gas for coal at power plants and become a natural gas exporter as well. Put it all together, says Verleger, and you can see why America “will want to consider joining with other energy-exporting countries, like those in OPEC, to sustain high oil prices. Such an effort would support domestic oil and gas production and give the U.S. a real competitive advantage over countries forced to pay high prices for imported energy — nations such as China, European Union members, and Japan.”
Indeed, Bloomberg News reported last week that “the U.S. is the closest it has been in almost 20 years to achieving energy self-sufficiency. … Domestic oil output is the highest in eight years. The U.S. is producing so much natural gas that, where the government warned four years ago of a critical need to boost imports, it now may approve an export terminal.” As a result, “the U.S. has reversed a two-decade-long decline in energy independence, increasing the proportion of demand met from domestic sources over the last six years to an estimated 81 percent through the first 10 months of 2011.” This transformation could make the U.S. the world’s top energy producer by 2020, raise more tax revenue, free us from worrying about the Middle East, and, if we’re smart, build a bridge to a much cleaner energy future.
All of this is good news, but it will come true at scale only if these oil and gas resources can be extracted in an environmentally sustainable manner. This can be done right, but we need a deal between environmentalists and the oil and gas industry to lock it in — now.
Says Hal Harvey, an independent energy expert: “The oil and gas companies need to decide: Do they want to fight a bloody and painful war of attrition with local communities or take the lead in setting high environmental standards — particularly for “fracking,” the process used to extract all these new natural gas deposits — “and then live up to them.”
Higher environmental standards may cost more, but only incrementally, if at all, and they’ll make the industry and the environment safer.
In the case of natural gas, we need the highest standards for cleanup of land that is despoiled by gas extraction and to prevent leakage of gas either into aquifers or the atmosphere. Yes, “generating a kilowatt-hour’s worth of electricity with a natural gas turbine emits only about half as much CO2 as from a coal plant,” says Harvey, and that’s great. “But one molecule of leaked gas contributes as much to global warming as 25 molecules of burned gas. That means that if the system for the exploration, extraction, compression, piping and burning of natural gas leaks by even 2.5 percent, it is as bad as coal.”
Hence, Harvey’s five rules for natural gas are:
Don’t allow leaky systems;
use gas to phase out coal;
have sound well drilling and casing standards;
don’t pollute the landscape with brackish or toxic water brought up by fracking;
and drill only where it is sensible.
******* I’d add a sixth rule for crude oil: ——- No one likes higher oil prices. —— But — perversely — the high price benefits America as we rapidly become a bigger oil producer and it ensures that investments will continue to flow into energy efficient cars and trucks. If we were smart, we would establish today a floor price for any barrel of crude oil or gallon of gasoline sold or imported into America — and tax anything below it. *********
A stable, sufficiently high floor price serves the environment, our technology investments and our energy productivity. As our producers succeed, we would become increasingly energy self-sufficient, keep a lot more dollars at home for our Treasury, stimulate innovation on renewables and drive down the global oil price that is the sole source sustaining Iran and other petro-dictators.
But all of this depends on an understanding between the oil industry and the environmentalists. If President Obama could pull that off, it would be a huge contribution to America’s security, economy and environment.
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Posted in Abu Dhabi, Austria, Canada, European Union, Obama Styling, Pennslyvania, Qatar, Real World's News, Reporting from Washington DC, Saudi Arabia, Texas, UAE
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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on February 11th, 2012
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)
Summary Highlights of the Forum
The fifth World Future Energy Summit (WFES) 2012 opened in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), on 16 January 2012. The first day of this four-day event was organized around the theme “Policy and Strategy Forum,” and comprised opening statements from Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO Masdar; Wen Jiabao, Premier, China; Kim Hwang-sik, Prime Minister, Republic of Korea; UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon; and other dignitaries, followed by special addresses and ministerial panels. The WFES program also included roundtable discussions, an exhibition hall, and numerous other side events and activities.
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Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General
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Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General, stressed the need to end energy poverty to ensure equal opportunities. He described the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (also known as Rio+20) meetings as the beginning of a multi-year mission to achieve sustainable energy for all, and called for a new energy future that harnesses the power of technology and innovation in the service of people and the planet.
For the complete daily material – Please go to:
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Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), during the session on Future Energy Future Strategies
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Close of World Future Energy Summit 2012
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Posted in Abu Dhabi, Reporting From the UN Headquarters in New York, UAE
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