links about us archives search home
SustainabiliTankSustainabilitank menu graphic
SustainabiliTank

 
 
Follow us on Twitter

 

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on September 29th, 2016
by Pincas Jawetz (pj@sustainabilitank.info)

FELIX DODDS writes on his blog: Bokova out? Georgieva in for next UN Secretary General.

He Writes – The rumors that have been circulating for the last month have now proven to be true. The Bulgarian government has withdrawn support from Irina Bokova as their candidate for UN Secretary General and replaced her with Kristalina Georgieva, the European commissioner for budget and human resources.

There is some evidence that the right of center parties in European capitals have been behind this with some articles appearing in the last few weeks against Bokova. The Guardian reported on the 26th:
“one of her (Kristalina’s) staff members was hacked and emails purporting to be from one of her top aides were sent out to the rest of her office, instructing them to attack Bokova”
There is no question that Kristalina has the cv and record to be a very good UN Secretary General. She is a strong supporter of sustainable development issues she will pick up the SDGs and climate agendas with ease. She is dynamic and very personable and was very active around last week’s UN General Assembly High Level session. Clearly preparing for what was expected to be an announcement this week. There was lobbying by the Russians to support Bokova to strop Kristalina entering the process. The Bulgarian government had indicated that Bokova had to be in the top three for them to continue their support. She came 6th out of 9 in the 5th straw poll.

It is unclear if Bukova will drop out now.

A clear positive outcome from Kristalina entering the Secretary General process is that you can expect that she will appear in the top three in the next Secretary General poll on 5th of October. This does mean that a woman from the Eastern bloc will be in clear contention.

Dodds says: I’ve argued from the beginning that a woman from the Eastern bloc should be elected on the basis of regional rotation and should be a woman.

So some of the problems for the UK and Germany with Bokova were she was seen to be too pro-Russian or at least you could argue more neutral.

This brings us to the potentially problems with Kristalina’s candidature she is clearly a pro EU candidate and from a right of center political background affiliated to the European Peoples Party at the European level. With the present tension in the Security Council between Russia and the US, UK and France over Syria her candidature may be negatively impacted.
Finally a question that I have is why would Russia not veto her as she would ultimately be sen as a WEOG candidate when there are less obviously pro EU candidates left in the face from other Eastern bloc countries. The reality of introducing Kristalina as a candidate, and taking Bokova out if that is what is going to happen, could mean we end up with an Eastern European man.

Cant wait until the next straw poll on the 5th of October when the P5 will have colored voting cards (red will now signify a veto and that candidate will be out) .

Posted Yesterday, September 28, 2016, by Felix Dodds

The ten non-permanent members elected for two-year terms by the General Assembly (with end of term date):
Angola (2016), Egypt (2017), Japan (2017), Malaysia (2016), New Zealand (2016), Senegal (2017), Spain (2016), Ukraine (2017), Uruguay (2017). These and the Permanent Members – the 5 Veto Powers – will be voting for the UNSG – a total of 15 votes that are meaningful only if there is no veto. The first such vote will be attempted October 5th 2016.

REVIEWING ABOVE AND EXPECTING THAT RUSSIA WILL VETO FRONT RUNNER Antonio Gutierez of Portugal who has 12 positives out of 15 possible votes with two negatives and one undecided – but it is common knowledge that one of the negatives is a Russian killer veto. The other negative may have been the less important Angola vote – a former Portuguese colony. That same logic seems to work also against the second favorite of the West – Kristalina Georgieva whose name did not appear in the five straw polls that were taken so far – but as a favorite of the West she might as well expect a Russian Veto.

OK – so we are left with: Vuk Jeremic of Serbia (6 negatives), Miroslav Lajcak of Slovakia (7 negatives), Danilo Turk of slovenia (7 negatives), Srgjan Kerim of Macedonia (9 negatives). The five VETO POWERS are China, France, Russia, The UK, The US. Whom would an EU Member State want to Veto from among those four candidates? We do not think that China has any interest in this and we trust the US would Veto only a candidate that seems to be too close to Russia – this specially these days of clear dissention and Russian expansion into the Middle East.

It seems tat a Serb has no appeal to the West for ethnic wars’ reasons – so we believe that the person ahead has less chance and we believe that the Slovak, Slovenian and Macedonian male delegates have the real inner path.

Be Sociable, Share!

Leave a comment for this article

###