Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on October 18th, 2012
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)
On July 19th it was said about Ezra Klein: “MSNBC contributor Ezra Klein, who also appeared on the program, pointed out that the hard-line tactics are not just about this particular deal. “One thing Democrats are thinking about here isn’t just this fiscal cliff and this tax deal, it’s that they need to break the Republicans’ brinkmanship altogether.”
“Democrats believe at this point they need to show the Republicans that they cant keep threatening to drive the country off of of these various kinds of cliffs,” Klein said.
This idea developed further seemingly in Ezra Klein’s mind and now he developed it into a real eye opener:
President Obama is prepared to veto legislation to block year-end tax hikes and spending cuts, collectively known as the “fiscal cliff,” unless Republicans bow to his demand to raise tax rates for the wealthy, administration officials said.
Freed from the political and economic constraints that have tied his hands in the past, Obama is ready to play hardball with Republicans, who have so far successfully resisted a deal to tame the debt that includes higher taxes, Obama’s allies say.
If Obama wins reelection, he may finally be able to dictate the terms of a bipartisan debt-reduction deal. And if he loses to Mitt Romney, Obama could make sure that tax rates rise before he hands over the keys to the White House on Inauguration Day in late January.
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The crux of the issue is:
Note: These figures don’t include savings from reduced interest payments.
I’ve called this the GOP’s dual-trigger nightmare says Ezra Klein. It’s bad for the economy, but it effectively ends the deficit
with a mix of tax increases and spending cuts more progressive than anything any Democrat has dared propose.
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The BottomLine here is that OBAMA HAS A PLAN!
Romney knows this plan but will not say so – Obama has no interest to say it – it is only Ezra Klein who can fully state this plan and get away with it.
At the Hofstra Debate Obama said that Romney has a plan – it is a one point plan – make the rich – richer!
Obama did not say what his plan is and Romney did not ask him – all what Romney wanted us to think is that Obama has no plan – this clearly at Romney’s own peril. So – let us see what Ezra Klein thinks of the hidden Obama winner plan.
On Obama’s plan: Push Republicans off the fiscal cliff.
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I’ve criticized the Obama campaign for failing to detail much of a vision for a second term. But that’s not to say they don’t have one. They do. It’s just a hard one to campaign on.
After promising in 2008 to bring about a new era of cooperation in Washington, they’re campaigning in 2012 knowing that, if reelected, they will start their second term with a brutal, economy-shaking showdown with Republicans over spending and taxes.
If the Obama administration were to really lay out their plans, they would go something like this. In November, President Obama will reiterate, clearly and firmly, that he will veto any attempts to extend the high-income tax cuts or lift the big, dumb spending cuts without finding equivalent savings elsewhere. In fact, as my colleague Lori Montgomery reports, they’re already reiterating that promise.
That veto threat is the center of the Obama administration’s second-term strategizing. The Obama administration believes – and, just as importantly, they believe Republicans believe – that they’ve got the leverage here. The Republican position on taxes is less popular than the Democratic position. The outcome of gridlock is much higher taxes, which is more anathema to Republicans and arguably cheering to Democrats. The big, dumb spending cuts, despite being poorly timed and inanely constructed, are very progressive in their effect, falling heavily on military spending while exempting Medicaid, Social Security, and Medicare beneficiaries.
I’ve called this the GOP’s dual-trigger nightmare. It’s bad for the economy, but it also effectively ends our deficits with a mix of tax increases and spending cuts more progressive than anything any Democrat has dared propose. Republicans absolutely can’t let it happen. But the only way they can stop it from happening is to make a deal.
The administration hopes this deal will include more than just deficit reduction. They also see it as a vehicle for infrastructure investment and tax reform. They think there’s some chance that parts of the American Jobs Act, like the hiring tax credits, could sneak through the door, too. There’s even talk of using it to address climate change, though everyone agrees that’s unlikely. Whatever ends up in the final deal, there’s little doubt that it will be a big deal, and it’s likely to come together fairly quickly in the first year.
The White House – and the expiring tax and spending provisions – won’t give Republicans any other choice.
In a way, the Obama administration’s plan for a second term is much like their plan for the first term: Make a deal with Republicans. Get a big bipartisan solution to our problems. But the means are almost precisely the opposite. Where in the first term, the hope was that they could reach out, talk through the issues, and come to an agreement, the plan for the second is to push the Republican Party off the fiscal cliff, and then force them to reach out in order to get pulled back up.
To put it plainly, in 2008, the Obama campaign hoped Republicans would work with them. In 2012, they have a plan. Their plan stands a good chance of working. But it doesn’t sound as good as hope does in a speech. That’s why you’re not hearing much about it.
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After we posted the above, two little notes in am New York of today were brought to our attention:
(1) Romney said before 3,500 supporters in an outdoor rally in Chesapeake, Virginia that the President lacks Second Term Agenda. “Don’t you think that it’s time for him tp finally put together a vision of what he would do for the next four years if he were elected? I mean he’s got to come up with that over the weekend because there’s only one debate left on Monday?”
The contender must be thinking that in Chesapeake his followers are all of the moron kind that do not know that the last debate on Monday is about foreign policy and not about the domestic economic policy which is the main issue in these elections.
But never mind – next item comes from China and they already put Romney on notice that with them he cannot play around like he does with audiences of his followers like in Chesapeake, VA.
(2) “Chinese President Hu Jintao says that China is tired of slams by Prez rivals.” Xinhua news wire, that faithfully expresses Beijing’s point of view, warned that targeting its country’s roducts or currency would risk a trade war.
Mr. Romney, with his personal investments in China, better be the first to revise his offerings for the coming Monday – he might find that even a more formidable enemy is prepared to take him on in case the gods, and the uninformed, decide to favor him.
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Posted in Archives, New York, Real World's News, Reporting from Washington DC
