The Chinese government announced Thursday that it had set a target to slow the growth of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, a day after the Obama administration set a provisional target for reducing United States emissions.

The Chinese also announced that Prime Minister Wen Jiabao will attend the Copenhagen talks but did not set yet a date for his arrival.

President Obama discussed climate change with Hu Jintao, the Chinese president, when the two met in Beijing on Nov. 16. Officials from the two countries were in talks on the issue under President George W. Bush, but Mr. Obama earlier this year made climate change a top priority in diplomacy between the governments.

China’s arguments about balancing environmental concerns with economic growth resonate with other developing countries like India, and both countries propose slowing the growth of emissions relative to the growth of their economies.

The target announced Thursday “is not so low that China can get to it easily without actual effort, nor is it too high to believe,” said Jin Jiaman, executive director of the Global Environmental Institute, an advocacy group based in Beijing.

China, India and the United States are expected to be crucial players among the 190 or so nations at the meetings in Copenhagen. Leaders have said they do not expect to come to a firm agreement there.

The Chinese propose, by 2020, to reduce so-called carbon intensity — or the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of economic output — by 40 to 45 percent compared with 2005 levels. By that measure, emissions would still increase, though the rate would slow. That falls far short of what many in Europe and other nations had hoped for — an increase in energy efficiency of at least 50 percent.

Analysts said the Chinese offer might take some of the pressure off the United States, which is offering to reduce the total tonnage of its greenhouse gas emissions “in the range of” 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and 83 percent by 2050. But now China seems to be offering almost no deviation from its business-as-usual path, a more troubling development to some.

In a sense, the Chinese offer is less ambitious than the American proposal because China is already well on the way to its target with existing energy efficiency initiatives, while the American offer would require changes in many government policies. American efforts, though, have been mired in Congressional infighting.

Yet the offers by the United States and China both amount to politically safe opening bids in what is likely to be a long, tough process of negotiations on concrete steps that the two countries should take to address climate change.

The simple truth is that the US President has offered an actual reduction in CO2 emissions base on 2005 reality, while the Europeans aim at a larger reduction based on the 1990 figures, and China is offering improved energy efficiency that allows still for emissions to increase. As different as it is – we rather think that these scales are a good opening because in the end we will get some day a solution that aims at the same goals but allows for different countries taking upon themselves different responsibilities that take into account the past transgressions against the environment by a history of UNSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT.

The State Council, China’s cabinet, said Thursday that fixing the target for 2020 was a “voluntary action” taken by the Chinese government “based on our own national conditions,” according to the state-run news agency Xinhua. Chinese officials also announced Thursday that Prime Minister Wen Jiabao would attend the Copenhagen talks.

The Chinese did not say when Prime Minister Wen Jiabao will come to Copenhagen. Could we hope that he decides to come there also at the begining of the meetings and stand there sholder to sholder {this is just our figurative speech} with President Obama so that sort of a disparate but joint presentation gives indeed the needed jolt to whatlooked like a potentially moribund event?

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The UN jumped into this sequence of events trying to claim leadership from the leaders-in-fact.

The UNFCCC Media alert says:

“The following quote can be attributed to UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de
Boer:

‘The US commitment to specific, mid-term emission cut targets and China’s commitment to specific action on energy efficiency can unlock two of the last doors to a comprehensive agreement. Let there be no doubt that we need continued strong ambition and leadership. In particular, we still await clarity from industrialized nations on the provision of large-scale finance to developing countries for immediate and long-term climate action”‘.

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Geoff Dyer from Beijing and Fiona Harvey of the Financial Times, London, say that China’s farmers face a loss of 50% in income because of climate change and recognizing the issue China removes its pariah status at Copenhagen.

In what concerns India there is still an internal polemics going on, but Mr. Jairam Ramesh, the environment Minister, went public urging the end of polemics and the start of commitments to carbon control measures as part of a global deal. So, India is not yet on board, but there buds also within India’s government a recognition that pragmatism requires commitment.

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Even though Mr. Obama’s hands are tied by domestic US politics, his appearance in Copenhagen on November 9th is witness to his personal commitment, and the Chinese follow up statements show that there is indeed an echo out there. Mr. Obama is taking a decision to spend political capital on the issue – and that is fine.

In view of their size and likely growth in the next few decades, finding a way to bring China and India into a global carbon abatement system is crucial, says the Financial Times editorial. Mr. Obama is working on this for its own sake, and also in order to find in their understanding also a way to the hearts and minds of both Houses of the US Congress. Obama will reclaim the leadership on climate change, and as the EU refuses to unite in order to join the leaders’ club – we can see moves coming only from this triangle of the US, China and India. In the end this triangle may also help reshape the UN as the global leading think tank.