This Section of our reporting from the May 5th, 2009 of the IISS Washington DC meeting on “The Global Security Implications of Climate Change” covers the second panel or what I will refer to as the Panel of Generals.

the panel was chaired by Dr. Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS-US, Corresponding Director, IISS-Middle East.

Prior to joining IISS in March 2009, Dr Parasiliti was a Principal, Government Affairs, at The BGR Group, and an Executive Director of BGR Capital & Trade.   In these roles he had a major role in facilitating BGR’s interactions with US and international companies doing business in India, the Middle East, and worldwide.   He was also instrumental in BGR’s successful advocacy campaign in support of US-India civil nuclear cooperation.

From 2001-2005, Dr Parasiliti was Foreign Policy Advisor and personal representative or member (“PRM”) to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE).   From 1999-2001, he was director of the Middle East Initiative at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, where he   was responsible for the intellectual development and management of Executive Programs for business and government leaders in Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, and India, as well as Russian and Chinese General Officers.   From 1996-1999, Dr. Parasiliti was director of programs at the Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington, DC, where his initiatives contributed to the renaissance of MEI as a leader among Washington think-tanks dealing with Iraq and Iran.
On his panel:

- Major General A. N. M. Muniruzzaman (ret.), President Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, an experienced peace-keeper with the UN and interested in water security issues.

- Brigadier General Nigel Hall (Ret.), now Senior Associate Fellow, Defence Academy of the UK, worked with the UN and NATO on climate change & environmental impacts. He did a study with King College, London, on cross country climate change strategy with the UK Ministry of Defense moving to decrease its emissions footprint.

- Dr. Kent Butts, Professor of Political Military Strategy, Director, National Security Issues Group, Center for Strategic Leadership US Army War College. He was U.S. defense and army attaché, Uganda, Tanzania, and Malawi. with the rank of Colonel, he examines the threats to regional stability from resource conflicts (oil, water, land) and the assurance role of environmental issues as potential confidence building measures.

The military man from Bangladesh expanded on the unique geography of his country that lacks elevation from the sea – so its composition made up largely of mangrove islands puts it in the front line of climate change. with high population density and a total of 144 million people. it is bound to become an enormous case of migration with about 30 – 40 million people that might be dislocated and migrate north – that means towards India.

Bangladesh has 808 rivers – 57 are transboundary – of these 54 with India and 3 with Myanmar. If there is no snow in the Himalayas these will dry up in the summer. They already see loss of biodiversity, depletion of fish stocks – inland and at sea.

Land is being lost to the rising sea-water, and more land becomes unusable because of increased salinity. They already managed floods and cyclones – now the military has to get ready to much worse. The military will have to handle mass migration and there is the need to develop cooperation with India.

Further, regional cooperation is needed in the Himalayas, but also in the sub-regional levels involving the stakeholders.

Bangladesh is beyond mitigation – they were talking about adaptation but the US kept off the agenda for 8 years.

The link between military and civil in security becomes shorter – the civil becomes more and more military.

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The man from the UK   said the military must take a much more pro-active role as stakeholder to push the problems they must be made to understand that the military is not the main act, he said.

Climate will increase existing tensions and cause major global disturbances. Climate induced security challenges lead to potential existential threats to rule of law. PM Tony Blair pushed he subject of climate change.

Brigadier General Nigel Hall fears the military will get more involved – who would imagine that NATO gets involved in Tsunami, Katrina, Pakistan ..?

South Africa is already facing migrants without being able to take care of its own people.

Generals Marshall and McArthur of WWII had to move beyond general accepted military roles, now cases like Pakistan and Somalia impact with political vows. 21st century mobilization may be advancing smart and we need to reform the international organization. We get a Class A Security Risk in context of poverty alleviation!

You must get the key players to focus on what the real global problems are now – we better focus on the 21st century rather then the 20th.

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The man from the US Army War College started by mentioning the military as resource for climate change. He talks as per the “Center for Strategic Leadership (CSL) and says we need to broaden the concept of security!

Take a simple village at the bottom of a valley that will be swept aside. Climate Change will then amplify tensions.

What if the US and China would work together to work out an adaptation program for the world? This because it is understood – as the 7 – 11 Commission already said it – “when people lose hope they can do unthinkable things.” The military does not volunteer for these issues, but with a $100 billion budget, it is easy to get it cover these issues also. The D.O.D. will have to appoint someone to cover the climate change issue – the Defense Authorization requires such an appointment.

The US already got its military involved in environmental disasters in the Caribbean, South and Central America, so now what is needed is to include climate change. We must learn to task the military – someone to decide who does what.

A question wanted to know about the militarization of developing countries’ security. Is there the risk of militarization of governments? And the General from Bangladesh said that every sensible military will want the maintaining of civil authority over the military, while the military is the only arm that can execute at the scale needed here – this specially when the events involve millions of people.