The Columbia University World Leaders Forum, September 26, 2008, Became The Podium For Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen of Denmark To Make Known A  Roadmap To The December 2009 Climate Change Meeting in Copenhagen. The Prime Minister Is Keenly Interested That The Copenhagen Event Becomes The Turnaround Point From Our Present Descent Towards Global Environmental Disaster, and He Negotiated This Week A Roadmap With The UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and The Two Candidates For The US Presidency.  We Wished Him All The Luck He Needs; Nevertheless We Expressed Some Skepticism.

The Columbia Forum brings to campus, during all months of the academic year, leaders involved with all sorts of ongoing problems, and at the time of the September High Level meetings of the UN General Assembly, it picks up special speed, and manages to pick up speakers that may have fallen in between the cracks when organizations like the Asia Society and the Americas Society, or the Foreign Policy Association, or the Council on Foreign Affairs, set up their schedules. This time it was really not the case. Prime Minister Rasmussen came to Columbia University because he has high esteem for the work done at the Earth Institute that is the home for a large number of scientists that were involved in the readying of the IPCC reports. Having said that, we must also note that rather then having the people from The Earth Institute involved in the Forum, the University chose to go all out with Columbia University President, Lee C. Bollinger, and University Professor of Economics and Law, Jagdish Bhagwati, a specialist on globalization and development, being the official hosts.

The above august Columbia University reception caused Mr. Rasmussen to start by saying: “I congratulate you on your work. I am impressed by the contribution of The Earth Institute to both the development agenda and the Millennium Development Goal. Issues I had the opportunity to discuss yesterday with other world leaders. Today, I will be speaking about another major topic for The Earth Institute and for many leaders including myself: CLIMATE CHANGE. I will focus on three key elements: THE CHALLENGE, THE VISION, and THE DEAL.”

 The introduction said to us clearly - the Prime Minister does not want to see the reality of climate change being submerged under tons of other global problems. The task of his leadership towards a Copenhagen 2009 agreement is to lead to an agreed timetable for the decrease of CO2 emissions from human made causes - it is this, rather then the maze of other linked problems, that he intends to tackle. He laid bare the problem in his first two segments - but his aim is the third segment - THE DEAL.

We intend to post his whole presentation - but for this fast posting we want to go directly to the DEAL, point out questions that came up in follow up discussions, and the full information that was then provided to the very few members of the media present at a follow up press conference.

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The Prime Minister wants to see in the December 2009 declaration a deal based on four key elements:

FIRSTLY: A Long Term Vision for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by 50% from 1990 baseline by 2050.                    This in order to set out targets for businesses in planning their investments.

SECONDLY: An Ambitious Medium Term Goal for the industrialized countries modeled after the European commitment to 30% reduction by 2020. “A tall order, I know, but it meets the challenge and creates opportunities.”

But that is not enough. The Major Emerging Economies will also have to join this endeavour by taking actions. They must stabilise, and subsequently reduce, their emissions. This obviously taking in consideration the different levels of development of the individual countries. IN THIS PRESERVATION OF FORESTS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE.

Without clear 10 to 15-year reduction commitments from the industrialized countries it will not be possible to develop cost effective measures.

THIRDLY: The Technology aspect requires the development and dissemination of low carbon technologies and INNOVATION within a global collaborative effort that promotes programs and policies that sustain economic development while ensuring decreased emissions. We must encourage investment and financing of low-carbon technologies.

FOURTHLY: Dealing with the special needs of the most vulnerable developing countries that contributed least to global warming and suffer the hardest consequences, they must be given a safety net which includes financial support for their efforts including adaptation.

The Prime Minister wants to see cost-effective, market-based instruments - efficiency standards and national, regional, and global carbon markets. He looked further at places that such moves were started already - the EU, China,  in many countries in Asia, other emerging economies.

“I believe the Chinese business sector and government have understood the prospects for low carbon technology. They can see a double benefit. Firstly their economy and, secondly, their participation in the global economy. They are already out there seeking to be part of the next generation of smart, low-carbon technologies” - he said.

Mr. Rasmussen did not mince words: “Following the last oil crisis Toyota started to build smaller and more fuel-efficient cars. General Motors did not. Today Toyota is the most sold car in America.”

“In China, cars are produced according to strict fuel efficiency standards. At the same time, US manufacturers are struggling with old fashioned fuel intensive models” - he said. “DO I NEED TO SAY MORE?”

From here Mr. Rasmussen pointed out that much did actually happen in many US individual States that have also established regional carbon markets and energy efficiency standards - so - he wants to see America lead again by example, by entrepreneurship - politically as well as economically.

“I know,” he said, “that many people fear competition from China, especially in energy intensive sectors. And Yes, no deal can address climate change without both China and the United States being part of it. But do not deceive yourself: with emissions at 24 tons per capita the USA has a long way to go and cannot afford to wait for others. There are huge gains to be won by moving rapidly and with determination.”

The choices that will be made in 2009 are not short of shaping actually the future of planet earth for the next century - but Mr. Rasmussen does not think that his goals are unattainable - they are not impossible and they are not unaffordable - they are actually absolutely vital for our survival - he said - and he offered also that they are vital for our economic recovery and growth.

“We could continue to wring our hands, watching helplessly as the oil price rises and falls. Watch weather systems spreading havoc. Continue to transfer huge amounts of wealth to autocratic regimes and rely on unstable supplies of oil and gas. Watch our planet grow more unlivable every day. But that is not an option. We are not going to do that.”

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Professor Bhagawati, in his remarks mentioned, in reference to the present calamity of the US financial sector, also with application to the issues here at hand, that we were once used to the image of a ship captain standing in a position of salute when his ship was going down, this after putting his passengers into the lifeboats. Now we see the captains leaving in the lifeboats and leaving the passengers behind to go down instead.

He also suggested that from Kyoto I we will probably not go to Kyoto II, but rather to Copenhagen I. He wants to have in Poznan, Poland, in December 2008, already the agreement to go to 50% reduction of emissions, and during 2009 the negotiations for the intermediary steps with the consideration of different responsibilities for different stages of development, taken in full account.

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We brought up the question about the timetable from now to December 2009, with the intermediary stop at Poznan in December 2008.

We explained that the US elections in November 2008 will have produced a new President-elect, but no practical change in the US representation -  what-so-ever - at the Poznan meeting. Simply - the US has only one President at one time. This will make it impossible to deal with the US in order to come up with the Poznan  decision, that is needed in order to reach an agreement that Mr.Rasmussen expects at the Copenhagen meeting in 2009.

Mr. Rasmussen answered that he is already in contact with both US Presidential campaigns, and both said that they will be ready with their plans when they take over on January 20, 2009. But this is also no solution - this because of the fact that a US negotiator will have to be approved by Congress - and it is hardly possible of having such an approval before March to the earliest. Really, as cabinet positions will have to be approved first - let me say that this will not happen before April.

With Poznan having become a dud, negotiations April - November 2009, can hardly be expected at turning Copenhagen of being more then a Poznan II, rather then a Kyoto II or Copenhagen I.

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The Prime Minister is optimistic nevertheless and expects the EU to push for renewable energy and energy savings, and lead by example. He also puts his hope for Europe’s energy in the construction of pipelines from Central Asia that bypass Russia.

Furthermore, as it is true that climate change is with us for a long time - and it only got worse in the last two century because of the man-caused emissions, nevertheless, it is the confluence of that reason, with the present political reason, the fact that huge amounts of money are transferred to unstable regimes in payment for the energy, is strengthening our resolve to take action now. We must now brake our addiction to oil.

The Prime Minister also told us of a “Troica meeting” with the UN Secretary-General: Indonesia, Poland, Denmark - or the organizers of the Bali (2007), Poznan (2008) , and Copenhagen (2009) meetings, which just happened, a day earlier, at this reunion at the UN.

So, there was already a promise of 50% by 2050 / as per 1990, that was put on the table in Bali, and then backed by the G8 meeting in Japan.These answers to questions from the floor got then further amplified in the meeting with the four members of the Press that participated at the follow up session. And this is what I call now the Roadmap:

The year 2009 will involve Heads of State.

(a) In February - March 2009, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will hold a Heads-of-State Meeting at the UN in order to start the process rolling.

(b) In July 2009, probably in Rome, there will be a meeting of the G8 ++ - that is the major evolving countries - probably 5 of them if not more. This to reach an agreement that can then be brought to all Heads-of-State in a September Session of the UN.

(c) thus an energy/climate change UN High-Level September meeting at the UN headquarters in New York City.

(d) The December 2009 Copenhagen meeting.

Further, we wanted to know what the Prime Minister thinks about a US that will be spending now $1.5 trillion on the Wall Street Bailout - so where will the money come for doing the right things needed in regard to climate change? But the fighting optimist believes that really this is not a question of money, but political will.

Again, I felt compelled to wish good luck and to mention that we are all with him and hope he can pull it through.

Last comment for this first report is that I watched in amazement how the Prime Minister was accosted at the Columbia Forum reception by an Iranian young lady student, who for perhaps 15 minutes was trying him out on those famous cartoons, and how he tried to explain to her the workings of a democracy and the fact that freedom of speech, the press, religion, mean that one religion cannot be imposed on others, and that the government has no right to intervene in a  democracy, even though this student seemed not to want to accept this reality. Columbia University must really have succeeded in bringing on board all sorts of students - and we wish the school luck also, in the attempt to forge well behaved citizens even with hard to reach individuals that surely must come from the leading families of political strata of some of the most repulsive regimes. Finally, another student, waiting in line to talk to the Prime Minister, felt compelled to say - “let’s go back to energy questions.”  A different student, without offering a question,  thanked the Prime Minister for his strong stands.

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