Montreal, Quebec, Canada - November 27, 2005

The COP11 of the UNFCCC / MOP1 of the Kyoto Protocol are starting tomorrow.
I arrived today, Sunday, to get my badges and learned already in the morning two astonishing facts.

(1) the US was able to halve the replenishment funds for the GEF (the UNEP/World Bank/UNDP project that funds activities with meaning to developing countries when talking about implementing the KP.
The halving of the GEF, while obviously keeping the mechanism intact means actually the reduction of the funding to 25% of what it was.

(2) the Canadian oil-province of Alberta, leading the conservative pack, is going to be successful in its call for a vote of non-confidence to the Canadian Liberal Government. The vote will take place tomorrow Monday and this will also cut off the head of the UNFCCC conference who, as traditionally accepted, is the Canadian Environment Minister. I got first inkling of this in a Sunday article of the New York Times.

Following above - further tidbits:

(3) Montreal was hit by snow followed by rain and the streets are covered with a sheet of ice making even the physical walking exercise slippery.

(4) the US and Australia were given a different badges then the country delegations that became members of the KP. I met the US and Australians huddle at a Coca-Cola fueled meeting. This was the only meeting I found today in the building.

Thus, first impression, is Canada going to become next headless Iraq? Are the oil-industry methods successful in derailing the MOP even before the meetings actually start?

When I said headless like Iraq I am thinking of Hermann Kahn - the great old “guru”of the Hudson Institute
- who at the time that Charles de Gaulle was meddling in Canadian affairs said that it would not be so terrible if Canada broke up and parts joined the US and Europe. Like then, I believe that Canada will overcome this also - it is only us - those that believe in decreased reliance on oil will suffer. The conference will suffer. The timing is awkward and hard to believe that it was coincidental. Today, it is true that British Columbia, with its heavy investments from Hong Kong Chinese and the Japanese looks to Pacific Internationalism; Alberta with its riches of petroleum heavy-crude like production from the tar-sands and solid EXXON investments looks at Texas Conservative friends of of President Bush; further western provinces would follow Alberta; developed Ontario-no-oil, is the one province most interested in keeping Canada unbroken; Quebec loves France as always, and the Maritime Provinces are torn between the New England of the US and the old England of Europe.

For now - Good Luck World!