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Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on October 1st, 2005
by Pincas Jawetz (PJ@SustainabiliTank.com)

LDEO is the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, located on a 157 acre campus on the Hudson River. It is the only research center in the world examining the planet from the core to its outermost atmosphere, across every continent and every ocean. Personally, I encountered its scientists taking notes in Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego, on the Argentine vessel A.R.A. Almirante Irizar, that was servicing the research stations in the Antarctica.

LDEO is affiliated with the various professional schools at Columbia University and with the cross cutting Earth Institute. It looks at global climate change as well as at volcanoes, shrinking natural resources, environmental hazards and beyond. The information provided should be taken into account for a wise stewardship of our planet. The annual open house at LDEO is an exciting opportunity for adults and children of every age to learn about the Earth in fun and engaging ways. The repeated attendance by several thousand people is witness to the success of this event.

This year they opened the Geoscience, the Seismology, the Geochemistry, the Oceanography buildings, the Tree Ring Laboratory, and further established tents for the Tectonophysics, Geology, Marine Biology, Ocean and Climate Physics, Marine Geology and Geophysics divisions; for the Borehole Research Group; for The Cooperative Institute for Climate Applications and Research (CICAR) - a partnership between NASA and Columbia University; and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)/ Tropical Agriculture program which is involved heavily in work in poor countries.

The young folks could have hands on experience with experiments involving such close topics as water quality in Rockland county or studies regarding the bottom layers and fish of the Hudson River. Others could participate in geology tours of the neighboring cliffs. The grown ups were treated to series of comprehensive lectures - and this is the target of my reporting.

In the Seismology building: Prof. Won-Yung Kim spoke on Earthquakes in the Stable Regions of Eastern North America; Arthur Lerner-Lam prefererd the “World Disaster Hotspots”; and Ben Holtzman shatterred the audience illusions by presenting “The Conversation Between the Inside and the Outside of the Earth.”

In the Oceanography building the discussions were about the winds and the sea ice in the polar regions.

In the IRI tent Prof. Suzana Camargo dealt technically with Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Climate’; Tony Barnston dealt with seasonal Climate Forecasting; and Arthur Greene dealt with the relation between climate and Weather. Prof. Barnston, Head of the Forecast Operations, made it clear that they had presented Washington, one month before the fact, with the forecast that this years Hurricanes will be stronger and that the Gulf Coast should be prepared!

This year, obviously, the main interest was in the Asian Tsunami and in the U.S. Gulf Coast Hurricanes. In the main auditorium - in the Monell building - there was the following series of lectures:

Prof. Klas Jacob’s topic was: “Earth Science and Disasters: The Indian Ocean Tsunami And Hurricane Katrina: What have we learned?” I marked myself some dry numbers - the tsunami killed about 300,000 people in 12 countries, caused about 1.2 million people to be displaced but cost about $20 billion; then the figures for Katrina seem to be about 1,000 dead, the effects in 4 States and 0.5 million people displaced, but the cost $100 billion. The Professor did not delve into these figures but my question is - are we seeing here the crude results of our industrialization efforts? Did the fact that we managed to destroy our environment, in our counterproductive way of dealing with development issues, make us more susceptible to material losses? Then remembering the TV screen that showed us who were those 1,000 casualties of Katrina - low and behold - the same poor people as those in Asia! What has our worship of the GNP factor given us? When the rebuilding will start - who will be the people that will come back? Are we going to let economics enhance the gross National Product by initiating an even more enhanced development process? Will we use workers from Mexico and ship the Louisiana poor to urban slums elsewhere? Prof. Jacob pointed out that local water sea level rises now one meter per century in the Grand Island, Loisiana, area. Does that try to tell us something?

Earth Institute director, Sustainable Development Professor, Dr. Jeffrey Sachs followed by telling the audience about the activities of the Earth Institute. He is advisor to the UN Secretary General and sits on many international committees looking at where we are going. He has the credibility when pointing out that present world GNP of $40 trillion will reach by the end of the century $350 trillion with China and India being mostly responsible for this growth. This poses life and death issues to the world. He spelled out clearly that the Earth Institute predicted a New Orleans catastrophe earlier this year. He further showed the effect of draught in Africa predicting migration and war. THESE ARE MAN MADE DISASTERS! Even if we would stop now all CO2 emissions, the inertia of the system would still give us 0.6 degrees C raise in temperature it will still be in the system. The Kilimanjaro snows will be all gone by 2020. He pointed out at the importance of letting the public in on this information. He can not see why the White House expressed surprise even that all was predicted. He said that he wished the members of the White House staff would come to such an open house as LDEO is having now.

Dr. Sachs, in his 40 minutes continued to highlight the various scientific methods displayed at this open house. - the tree-ring and ice core or air trapped in the glaciers methods to quantify the changes in air composition, the climate forcings as drivers to climate change. He did not shy away from the negative drivers that are being used by some in order to try to discredit the work of the main body of world’s scientists. He touched the reflective aerosols, the clouds, the changes in land cover, and put them in their place showing their impact without having the power to negate the basic facets of the climate change theory. I could see in my mind several pseudo scientists, probably on oil company dole-out, that were chewing our ears at various meetings.

Dr. Sachs moved to ways to answer the needs caused by global warming - he explained the adaptation and mitigation concepts and even, to keep the audience interested, explained what was right and what was exaggerated in the “Day After Tomorrow” movie. He thinks highly of Dr. Broker, who was the scientific sole behind the ideas, and who now is involved in the efforts to sequester underground CO2 from power plants. First experiments to be performed in Island.

Dr. Sachs pointed out that we are measuring the wrong things and not life. He actually did say something that sounded to me that he might be on the path to see that the Gross National Product that pushes consumerism, is the culprit. His idea for life cries out for ways to quantify the Gross National Happiness concept and I am looking forward to try to pull his brain on this topic. For now I can only say that he is wasting his time trying to impact the UN. He is much more needed in Washington and if Washington does not accept the need for this sort of analysis - we are indeed all doomed to a future string of events of the Katrita (Katrina and Rita) intensity and worse.

Dr. Sachs was followed by Dr. Peter deMenocal - “Understanding the Global Warming Forecast: Our Past and Future Climate”, who continued presenting scientific data to ideas that Dr. Sachs had only time to glance over. He then quoted H.R. Kaufman, the General Manager of Swiss Re, the reinsurance company, that presented to his stockholders the dangers of huge financial losses if climate change is continued to be hushed up.

My bottom line conclusion of the Earth Institute/LDEO event is that Dr. Sachs must find a channel to the US White House, whoever its inhabitants. The only chance for lessening the dangers from global warming can be if there is a change of mind at that address.

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