Saturday, October 9, 2004, there was an open house at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory that allowed me to visit the laboratory, talk to some of the scientists involved, and view some of the collections of samples.  One great place to visit is the Tree Ring Lab.  There we were told that since 1998 the American South West is very dry, and the biggest worries are focused on Lake Powell that may go bellow the minimum level of water needed for power production.  The Oceanography Department has developed a GOGA model and compared it with Global Sea Surface Temperature measurements.  They can explain the drought that has caused the social turmoil in Darfur, linking it with the water surface temperature in the Indian Ocean.

The Washington Senate briefing came about in order to support Senator Susan Collins attempt to appropriate, via an amendment, the sum of $60 million to support a research program and coordinate activities to help understand human induced and natural processes of abrupt climate change.

At the Earth Observatory open house, Bruno Tremblay stated that even though the movie, "The Day after Tomorrow" has in it many exaggerations, and pointed out at some scientific incongruities, nevertheless, the central theme, as the various events including the El Ninio, La Ninia, Dafur drought and many other changes in the environment, the theme that we are in effect in the middle of major climate change is correct.  He used maps from Dr. W. Broecker papers, regarding the Global Thermohaline circulation — the stream of water in the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt. Some changes are already occurring. Remembering the National Research Council’s volume and the illustration how a little bit of added change can trigger a massive change to a new and very different state of equilibrium. Sure, this will not bring a tidal wave up Fifth Avenue in New York City, as in the movie, but it clearly can start with a drought in Dafur.  And just taking that last example — how big are the payments in human suffering?

Who is to be made accountable?  Can one talk here about internalization of costs by the corporations that made this possible?  Now where are we going indeed?  Some of the above was tackled at the Earth Observatory open day, in the opening presentation by it’s Director, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, but this goes beyond the issue in front of us — the Abrupt Climate Change.

The bottom line is nevertheless: - Expect Inevitable Surprises.

(This article was first posted on CultureChange.org)